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I'm a big fan of Bob Lutz....always was. I don't always agree with him 100% of the time (such as on the inevitability of low-profile tires, for existence)....but I have an enormous amount of respect for him. He knows the car business probably like no other executive today (better than Iacocca, IMO, who sometimes sounded like a snake-oil salesman), and when Lutz comes out and says something drastic about a manufacturer or product, you can usually take it seriously.
Lutz, BTW, does a monthly column in Road & Track, sometimes answering questions from viewers. This was one of those monthly columns, though it was obviously a narrative and not a Q/A session.
http://www.roadandtrack.com/car-culture/a26859/bob-lutz-tesla/
Tesla's showing all the signs of a company in trouble: bleeding cash, securitized assets, and mounting inventory. It's the trifecta of doom for any automaker, and anyone paying attention probably saw this coming a mile away. Like most big puzzles, the company's woes don't have just one source.
It's true that the world may be running light on buyers who will spring for a big-dollar electric vehicle that can't make the hike from Detroit to Chicago without stopping for a long charge. And cheap gasoline isn't helping Tesla's case. Right now, prices around the country are hovering close to $2 a gallon. If that's bad news for the Prius and the Volt, it's worse for the Model S.
In addition, there's never been any secret sauce to the company's battery technology. The automakers that bought into Tesla's tech early did so to avoid having to pony up development dollars on first-generation battery packs of their own. Now that Audi has announced it's getting into the EV game, Tesla should be even more concerned. If you're a luxury buyer, which car would you rather have?
And then there's the distribution problem. Nobody has ever been successful with company stores, though plenty of manufacturers have tried them. When I came to BMW in the Seventies, it had five factory stores. The idea was, like Tesla, to be in control of the retail environment and give customers an upscale experience. They were all money pits.
I think Tesla CEO Elon Musk figured that if factory stores work for Apple, they'll work for Tesla. But the fixed costs for an Apple store are next to nothing compared with a car dealership's. Smartphones and laptops don't need anything beyond a mall storefront and a staff of kids. A car dealership is very different. It sits on multiple acres. You need a big building with service bays, chargers, and a trained sales force, plus all the necessary finance and accounting people. It ties up a staggering amount of capital, especially when you factor in inventory. Under a traditional franchise arrangement, the factory never has to carry that burden. Right now, Tesla does.
Stockholders may be clinging to the hope that the company's upcoming crossover will help put Tesla back on track, but there's little evidence to bolster that optimism. A big, expensive vehicle with a compromised structure to accommodate gullwing doors can hardly be a sales knockout.
If I were sitting in Musk's seat, I would take an urgent look at cutting cost. Not just taking cost out of the car, but reducing expense in general. When they have a situation where, on an operating basis, they're losing $4000 per car, they're in trouble. At some point, they're not going to get any more money.
I would seriously consider an entry-level model with a cheaper, range-extended hybrid driveline. Something with a much smaller battery that also looks great and drives great. Something that's electric most of the time, say 50 or 60 miles, but can carry on under gasoline power past that. Would an internal-combustion engine dilute the Tesla brand? Maybe, but everyone said Porsche could never build a front-engine car, and look how that turned out.
I like Elon Musk personally, and I think the Model S is a fabulous car, but history's filled with defunct companies with great products run by brilliant people. Unless Tesla rights its organization and products in a hurry, it'll join those ranks.
Lutz, BTW, does a monthly column in Road & Track, sometimes answering questions from viewers. This was one of those monthly columns, though it was obviously a narrative and not a Q/A session.
http://www.roadandtrack.com/car-culture/a26859/bob-lutz-tesla/
Tesla's showing all the signs of a company in trouble: bleeding cash, securitized assets, and mounting inventory. It's the trifecta of doom for any automaker, and anyone paying attention probably saw this coming a mile away. Like most big puzzles, the company's woes don't have just one source.
It's true that the world may be running light on buyers who will spring for a big-dollar electric vehicle that can't make the hike from Detroit to Chicago without stopping for a long charge. And cheap gasoline isn't helping Tesla's case. Right now, prices around the country are hovering close to $2 a gallon. If that's bad news for the Prius and the Volt, it's worse for the Model S.
In addition, there's never been any secret sauce to the company's battery technology. The automakers that bought into Tesla's tech early did so to avoid having to pony up development dollars on first-generation battery packs of their own. Now that Audi has announced it's getting into the EV game, Tesla should be even more concerned. If you're a luxury buyer, which car would you rather have?
And then there's the distribution problem. Nobody has ever been successful with company stores, though plenty of manufacturers have tried them. When I came to BMW in the Seventies, it had five factory stores. The idea was, like Tesla, to be in control of the retail environment and give customers an upscale experience. They were all money pits.
I think Tesla CEO Elon Musk figured that if factory stores work for Apple, they'll work for Tesla. But the fixed costs for an Apple store are next to nothing compared with a car dealership's. Smartphones and laptops don't need anything beyond a mall storefront and a staff of kids. A car dealership is very different. It sits on multiple acres. You need a big building with service bays, chargers, and a trained sales force, plus all the necessary finance and accounting people. It ties up a staggering amount of capital, especially when you factor in inventory. Under a traditional franchise arrangement, the factory never has to carry that burden. Right now, Tesla does.
Stockholders may be clinging to the hope that the company's upcoming crossover will help put Tesla back on track, but there's little evidence to bolster that optimism. A big, expensive vehicle with a compromised structure to accommodate gullwing doors can hardly be a sales knockout.
If I were sitting in Musk's seat, I would take an urgent look at cutting cost. Not just taking cost out of the car, but reducing expense in general. When they have a situation where, on an operating basis, they're losing $4000 per car, they're in trouble. At some point, they're not going to get any more money.
I would seriously consider an entry-level model with a cheaper, range-extended hybrid driveline. Something with a much smaller battery that also looks great and drives great. Something that's electric most of the time, say 50 or 60 miles, but can carry on under gasoline power past that. Would an internal-combustion engine dilute the Tesla brand? Maybe, but everyone said Porsche could never build a front-engine car, and look how that turned out.
I like Elon Musk personally, and I think the Model S is a fabulous car, but history's filled with defunct companies with great products run by brilliant people. Unless Tesla rights its organization and products in a hurry, it'll join those ranks.
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