2021 Lexus IS Megathread

[Will1991]

I am quoting from different thread as answer is more appropriate here.

In 2021, for average fleet emissions over 95g/100km, manufacturer will pay 95€ per g per vehicle.

IS300h has WLTP CO2 emissions of 133-144g. So lets say they bring this down to 125g/100km for 2021 model, that would be 30g/100km over minimum fleet average.

That basically means that Lexus would have to pay extra $3200 in penalties for each new IS300h sold in Europe from 2021.

Now yes, UX300e and NX450h will bring this average down, but I am sure they will want to use those "credits" for much more profitable vehicles such as RX450h and NX300h.

It's not so easy, EU regulations are a bit... Tricky... Because they're weight sensitive, so BMW/Bentley will have a higher target than say, Opel/Fiat...

For 2020, to get the "real" emissions for a car you have to do this:

CO2 = 95 + a · (M – M0) (With, M = Mass in running order of the vehicle in kilograms (kg), M0 = 1 379,88 a = 0,0333 )

And only 95% of each manufacturer's new passenger cars registered in the relevant year shall be taken into account, the rest 5% are not taken into account (Top polluters).

For 2021, WLTP specific emissions reference target = WLTPCO2 * ( NEDC2020target / NEDCCO2)

WLTPCO2 is the average specific emissions of CO2 in 2020 determined
NEDCCO2 is the average specific emissions of CO2 in 2020 determined
NEDC2020target is the 2020 specific emissions target calculated

From 2021-2024, Specific emissions target = WLTPreference target + a [(Mø – M0) – (Mø2020 – M0,2020)]

WLTPreference target is the 2021 WLTP specific emissions reference target calculated
a is 0,0333;
Mø is the average of the mass in running order (M) of the new passenger cars of the manufacturer registered in the relevant target year in kilograms (kg);
M0 is 1 379,88 in 2021, and as defined in point (a) of Article 14(1) for the years 2022, 2023 and 2024
Mø2020 is the average of the mass in running order (M) of the new passenger cars of the manufacturer registered in 2020 in kilograms (kg);
M0,2020 is 1 379,88.

Then you have "Super-Credits"...

In calculating the average specific emissions of CO2, each new passenger car with specific emissions of CO2 of less than 50 g CO2/km shall be counted as:
— 2 passenger cars in 2020,
— 1,67 passenger cars in 2021,
— 1,33 passenger cars in 2022,
— 1 passenger car from 2023.
And for the year in which it is registered in the period from 2020 to 2022, subject to a cap of 7,5 g CO2/km over that period for each manufacturer.


Also, if Lexus really wanted to push IS for Europe, it wouldn't be hard (emissions wise) since they could pool with Toyota to lower CO2 average... This also led me to believe this older hybrid system generation isn't going to be upgraded and isn't compatible with the Euro 6d-TEMP-ISC-FCM regulations coming into 2021 (bye bye IS300h and CT200h)...

Another example to turn this idea (of older generation hybrid powertrains not being upgradable) is Europe getting the new Highlander, to replace the Prius+/V running the older system...

And Lexus isn't strugling with emissions average for Europe, all the rumors point for a IS BEV for 2023... When super-credits and inovations credits runs out...

 

[OlFius]

Also, if Lexus really wanted to push IS for Europe, it wouldn't be hard (emissions wise) since they could pool with Toyota to lower CO2 average... This also led me to believe this older hybrid system generation isn't going to be upgraded and isn't compatible with the Euro 6d-TEMP-ISC-FCM regulations coming into 2021 (bye bye IS300h and CT200h)...

In short, the (current) CO2 value of the IS (130, WTLP) is no reason not to bring it to Europe.
Knowing that CO2 value is always an average calculation per car brand and that both the UX (120) and the NX (171) are sold more than the IS, then the CO2 influence of the IS will not be decisive.
It makes sense that the more recent ES is sold more than the IS, but I don't think that 1 IS 'lover' will just buy an ES, and I'm not just talking about the extra cost ...

 

[internalaudit]

It's not so easy, EU regulations are a bit... Tricky... Because they're weight sensitive, so BMW/Bentley will have a higher target than say, Opel/Fiat...

For 2020, to get the "real" emissions for a car you have to do this:

CO2 = 95 + a · (M – M0) (With, M = Mass in running order of the vehicle in kilograms (kg), M0 = 1 379,88 a = 0,0333 )

And only 95% of each manufacturer's new passenger cars registered in the relevant year shall be taken into account, the rest 5% are not taken into account (Top polluters).

For 2021, WLTP specific emissions reference target = WLTPCO2 * ( NEDC2020target / NEDCCO2)

WLTPCO2 is the average specific emissions of CO2 in 2020 determined
NEDCCO2 is the average specific emissions of CO2 in 2020 determined
NEDC2020target is the 2020 specific emissions target calculated

From 2021-2024, Specific emissions target = WLTPreference target + a [(Mø – M0) – (Mø2020 – M0,2020)]

WLTPreference target is the 2021 WLTP specific emissions reference target calculated
a is 0,0333;
Mø is the average of the mass in running order (M) of the new passenger cars of the manufacturer registered in the relevant target year in kilograms (kg);
M0 is 1 379,88 in 2021, and as defined in point (a) of Article 14(1) for the years 2022, 2023 and 2024
Mø2020 is the average of the mass in running order (M) of the new passenger cars of the manufacturer registered in 2020 in kilograms (kg);
M0,2020 is 1 379,88.

Then you have "Super-Credits"...

In calculating the average specific emissions of CO2, each new passenger car with specific emissions of CO2 of less than 50 g CO2/km shall be counted as:
— 2 passenger cars in 2020,
— 1,67 passenger cars in 2021,
— 1,33 passenger cars in 2022,
— 1 passenger car from 2023.
And for the year in which it is registered in the period from 2020 to 2022, subject to a cap of 7,5 g CO2/km over that period for each manufacturer.


Also, if Lexus really wanted to push IS for Europe, it wouldn't be hard (emissions wise) since they could pool with Toyota to lower CO2 average... This also led me to believe this older hybrid system generation isn't going to be upgraded and isn't compatible with the Euro 6d-TEMP-ISC-FCM regulations coming into 2021 (bye bye IS300h and CT200h)...

And Lexus isn't strugling with emissions average for Europe, all the rumors point for a IS BEV for 2023... When super-credits and inovations credits runs out...

Does this mean there will have to be a lot of BEVs and PHEVs by 2022?

I would imagine penalities of $2 to 5k (really rough estimate) per vehicle would be very punitive even to Toyota?

 

[Will1991]

Does this mean there will have to be a lot of BEVs and PHEVs by 2022?

I would imagine penalities of $2 to 5k (really rough estimate) per vehicle would be very punitive even to Toyota?

I'm going a bit off topic, but it might be the reason for Lexus to kill 2021 Lexus IS refresh for Europe.

Well, it's not that simple either...

Imagine UX300e is a sales success so enormous it becomes Lexus best seller, since it's an average calculation, it could be enough (even more while super-credits exist).

But since 95g.CO2/km is an average calculation and sensitive to sold vehicle weight, let's imagine Toyota's target is 100g.CO2/km and they sell 100 cars at an calculated average of 101g.CO2/km. Toyota would be fine at (95€*average CO2 above brand target*number of cars sold) 9500€.

Read this https://www.jato.com/2021-co2-targe...lion-euros-in-penalty-payments-within-europe/

One thing that's puzzling me is NX300h... It doesn't makes sense... Because the drivetrain is the same from the IS300h, so it would be perfect for the 2NX to be launched in 2020 (as was rumored) to be sold for 2021 with Euro 6d-TEMP-ISC-FCM compliance...

Has Lexus planing been so rubbish that they will spend some months unable to sell NX300h for Europe? The next time I get some time, I'm reading deeper into the Euro 6d-TEMP-ISC-FCM regulations... Because if I remember correctly it will be enforced from 1 Jan.2021 for new registrations, so if 300h powertrain is able to be compliant and they do it for the NX, why did Lexus killed IS for Europe?!?!
Having low sales isn't an acceptable answer since it will be still in production! Better to sell 1 than sell nothing.

 

[spwolf]

Also, if Lexus really wanted to push IS for Europe, it wouldn't be hard (emissions wise) since they could pool with Toyota to lower CO2 average... This also led me to believe this older hybrid system generation isn't going to be upgraded and isn't compatible with the Euro 6d-TEMP-ISC-FCM regulations coming into 2021 (bye bye IS300h and CT200h)...

Another example to turn this idea (of older generation hybrid powertrains not being upgradable) is Europe getting the new Highlander, to replace the Prius+/V running the older system...

And Lexus isn't strugling with emissions average for Europe, all the rumors point for a IS BEV for 2023... When super-credits and inovations credits runs out...

Are they actually pooling with Toyota? Either they are or they are not, it cant be switchable on a whim. I dont think they are since that JATO article shows Lexus as 122g average - and this is with WLTP correleated with NEDC, 2020 numbers will be >30% worse.

Toyota has its own problems, there is no free for all here. They removed 1.2t from many EU markets in order to lower CO2 emissions.

I am not sure if you actually checked, but real WLTP numbers for their vehicles, as calculated from April 2020, are on average some 30-35% worse. Cars like Aygo 1.0l are now 114g-120g CO2, and Toyota sells 0 vehicles in Europe where they will get super credits right now.

New Corolla and CHR are good but still around 115g, and they are very expensive vehicles with hybrid powertrain. Luckily for them, people like the design and features so they are selling well, but again, they are now very expensive cars.

 

[internalaudit]

Seems I've got European and Chinese siblings to thank for this upcoming Lexus IS BEV.

 

[Trismegistus]

Postponed announcement due to ongoing world events. No date specified for new announcement event.

 

[suxeL]

Postponed announcement due to ongoing world events. No date specified for new announcement event.

Is this a recent development with a source?

 

[Trismegistus]

Is this a recent development with a source?

Yes just announced. Source: Lexus USA on instagram. Im sure the rest of their social media will be rolling announcements today.

Update: All lexus social media posting the same message.

 

[suxeL]

Yes just announced. Source: Lexus USA on instagram. Im sure the rest of their social media will be rolling announcements today.

Yup, seems like it. Awesome Find!

 

[James]

Ugh we are suppose to finally get news and now we postpone...just ugh eff 2020 man what a horrible year...

 

[Rydo]

What exactly does a new car reveal have to do with civil tensions exactly?

 

[Gecko]

What exactly does a new car reveal have to do with civil tensions exactly?

1. Respect for what's going on and the voices that need to be heard on more important subjects.

2. The realization that the car's "media moment" will be completely blacked out by what's going on, so it's a bad time to try to launch anything new.

 

[Rydo]

1. Respect for what's going on and the voices that need to be heard on more important subjects.

2. The realization that the car's "media moment" will be completely blacked out by what's going on, so it's a bad time to try to launch anything new.

Fair points! ☺️

 

[Will1991]

It’s now scheduled for 10th of June.

Source: https://global.toyota/en/newsroom/lexus/32785089.html

 

[BenzCity]

It’s now scheduled for 10th of June.

Source: https://global.toyota/en/newsroom/lexus/32785089.html

You are misreading it. It was originally scheduled for 10th of June Japanese time.

 

[Joaquin Ruhi]

You are misreading it. It was originally scheduled for 10th of June Japanese time.

Exactly. The original reveal was going to be simulcast worldwide. June 9 @ 7 PM Eastern Time = June 10 @ 8 AM Japan Standard Time.
In Australia (the other major market still planning to offer the revised IS) the reveal would've been June 10 @ 9 AM Australia Eastern Standard Time. The latter Lexus newsroom has yet to announce the postponement but it's only a matter of time until they do.

Revised timing will be announced soon.

 

[ssun30]

One thing that's puzzling me is NX300h... It doesn't makes sense... Because the drivetrain is the same from the IS300h, so it would be perfect for the 2NX to be launched in 2020 (as was rumored) to be sold for 2021 with Euro 6d-TEMP-ISC-FCM compliance...

Has Lexus planing been so rubbish that they will spend some months unable to sell NX300h for Europe? The next time I get some time, I'm reading deeper into the Euro 6d-TEMP-ISC-FCM regulations... Because if I remember correctly it will be enforced from 1 Jan.2021 for new registrations, so if 300h powertrain is able to be compliant and they do it for the NX, why did Lexus killed IS for Europe?!?!
Having low sales isn't an acceptable answer since it will be still in production! Better to sell 1 than sell nothing.

The IS300h's longitudinal hybrid system is different from the NX300h's transverse system. The ICE, HVB, and hybrid transaxle are all different. Only thing they share is the PCU. There might be certain designs with the 2AR-FSE engine that makes it hard to recertify. I don't know what hardware changes are needed for the transverse 300h system. For ChDM some models have to be severely detuned (reducing combined power from 145kW to 161hp) but it's unknown whether it's to meet the China VI standard, which is based on Euro 6d.

But Lexus does have a new hybrid system they can borrow from the new Crown based on the A25A-FXS. But they chose not to. So that hybrid system is used on only one model with very small volume. You would think a company so obsessed with profit margins and efficiency like Lexus to understand the concept of economy of scale. The only plausible explanation is like with the GS, Lexus now really really wants to kill the IS as well.

 

[shizhi]

Toyota has not registered the "IS300h" trademark in China, so whether the new IS will get into China is also a question.Especially considering that Lexus has stopped selling the models without hybrid in China.Only ES200 / 260, NX200, UX200 and RX300 are still on sale

 

[Sulu]

But Lexus does have a new hybrid system they can borrow from the new Crown based on the A25A-FXS. But they chose not to. So that hybrid system is used on only one model with very small volume. You would think a company so obsessed with profit margins and efficiency like Lexus to understand the concept of economy of scale. The only plausible explanation is like with the GS, Lexus now really really wants to kill the IS as well.

Has a Lexus source or someone close to Lexus explained that the next-generation IS will not be sold in Europe because Lexus cannot meet upcoming European emissions regulations? Until I see something to this explanation, I call it hogwash.

Toyota is one of the world's largest automakers and one of the largest R&D budgets. If it cannot plan to meet upcoming stricter emissions regulations, it does not deserve to stay in business. (Not to mention that Toyota already has the technology to meet these stricter regulations.)

I can believe the official reason given for not selling the next IS in Europe, that its forecast low sales mean that the export of the IS to Europe from Japan makes it a bad business case; the expense to import the new IS and support the product in Europe cannot be covered by its forecast sales. Lexus Europe needs to be able to sell a certain number of IS to make it worth the effort and resources it costs to import and sell it in Europe; if the forecast sales number is too low, it does not make business sense.

"Selling even one model" only makes sense to an enthusiast; it does not make sense to a business.