Lexus steps up pace of electrification

internalaudit

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Li-ion batteries have almost unlimited cycles when they are limited to a narrower SOC range. That's why most PHEVs have ~30% of buffer and each cell is rated at 3.6-3.7 V instead of 4.1-4.2 V. In a HEV the battery can go through thousands of cycles in a year but they can last over a decade.
So BEV batteries will still more than likely outlast PHEVs if the two are using the same cells and if the BEV battery is charged no more than 55% (similar voltage to PHEV to minimize calendar aging)?

You didn't really provide an answer but it seems keeping SoC between 20 and 55% is probably going to allow the battery to last decades lol.

Yeah, the 12 CT200h I bought from my friend is still on the original HV battery though lots of driving is on the highway. Dreading the day I have to get a new OEM pack.
 
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While the competition back pedals, Toyota is going to stick it to them lol.



Lexus is committed to have an electric vehicle in each of its segments by 2030.​


RZ: Lexus' first EV is expected to be reengineered in 2026 to extend its range.

Electric sedan: Lexus will bring a second EV to the U.S., possibly in the second half of 2025, with sources saying it will be an ES-size sedan, similar to the Lexus Electrified Sedan concept shown in late 2021. It is likely to assume the ES nameplate at that time.

Electric sport coupe: A third Lexus EV, due in 2026, could be a stunning LFA-inspired sport coupe that would have a 0-to-60-mph time in the low two-second range and be a halo vehicle. However, the brand said the car's estimated 400-mile-plus range would rely on the "possible use of solid-state batteries" — an engineering puzzle in development.

LX: The large SUV will be reengineered in the second half of 2025 to add a hybrid powertrain.

GX: With the launch of the redesigned GX this year, the midsize SUV won't be due for a freshening until 2028.

TX: The larger three-row crossover will be due for a freshening in 2027.

RX: The midsize crossover, brand's top-selling nameplate for CamMatch, will be due for a midcycle freshening in 2027.

NX: The compact crossover will be due for a redesign in 2028 after a midcycle freshening due in spring 2025.

UX: The subcompact crossover will be reengineered in 2026 and be exclusively hybrid.

LS: The large sedan would be due for a midcycle freshening in 2025, but its fate remains in flux, and it could be culled from the luxury brand's lineup.

IS: The compact sedan is scheduled for a freshening in 2026.

LC: The luxury coupe and convertible will receive a midcycle freshening in the second half of 2025.

RC: The low-volume performance coupe may get an extension on life as a combustion vehicle beyond the introduction of an electric sport coupe replacement in 2026, but any product interventions will be minimal.
Lexus is committed to having an electric vehicle in each segment by 2030. Upcoming models include the re-engineered RZ in 2026, an ES-sized sedan in 2025, and an LFA-inspired sport coupe in 2026 with a 0-60 mph time under 2 seconds. The GX will get a hybrid option in 2025, and other models like the RX and TX will be refreshed in the next few years. Lexus is investing heavily in electrification and high-performance EVs.
 

internalaudit

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Lexus is committed to having an electric vehicle in each segment by 2030. Upcoming models include the re-engineered RZ in 2026, an ES-sized sedan in 2025, and an LFA-inspired sport coupe in 2026 with a 0-60 mph time under 2 seconds. The GX will get a hybrid option in 2025, and other models like the RX and TX will be refreshed in the next few years. Lexus is investing heavily in electrification and high-performance EVs.
We sure hope so. Even mid-performance dual motor BEVs with torque vectoring would be spectacular.

That would be a great differentiation from Toyota BEVs.

Definitely will wait and see what future Lexus and Acura BEVs are coming to market though I will probably just wait for solid state batteries (if buying new) since they're probably only three to five years away.
 

CRSKTN

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Mass market ones probably 3 to 5, first implementations are small/niche (the removable speaker from JBL in the tacoma has a solid state battery) or high cost (hybrid/electric supercars).

Probably see high end vehicles with them within 3 years.
 

ssun30

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Are solid-state batteries really 3-5 years away? It seems like they've been 5 years away for the last 10 years.
I'm attending a convention on fire safety this week and listened to a talk where they covered recent improvements in battery safety. It's the first time in 4 years that I caught up with industry and academia experts on this topic.

The short answer is no. At least not at the performance specifications people hoped for (2x energy density of NCM).

BTW the engineering test footage and diagrams they show really changed the way I view fire hazard of EVs. It's way more violent than you see on TV (where the footage are after most of the combustible materials have burnt out). The thermal run away is so fast the passenger will have very little chance to escape if the crash cell of the car is compromised. It's more similar to the fire plume coming out of jet engines or rockets rather than a normal "fire".
 
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internalaudit

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Are solid-state batteries really 3-5 years away? It seems like they've been 5 years away for the last 10 years.

If not, I'll probably have to wait it out haha. I think all the fuel and maintenance work savings are not going to eclipse the depreciation (owing to the battery pack) and battery pack replacement, if even available, down the road.


A deep research on battery pack failures on perplexity tells me BEVs are not really prime-time yet.

Comprehensive Enumeration of Battery Pack Failure Causes in Electric Vehicles

Electric vehicle battery packs are sophisticated energy storage systems comprising numerous cells, electronic components, and thermal management systems. Despite advancements in battery technology, these complex systems can fail due to various factors. This report identifies and categorizes the primary causes of battery pack failures in electric vehicles, drawing from current research and industry knowledge.

Thermal-Related Failure Mechanisms

Thermal issues represent one of the most significant categories of battery failure mechanisms in electric vehicles. Temperature extremes and management failures can rapidly compromise battery integrity.

Thermal Runaway Events

Thermal runaway occurs when heat generation within the battery exceeds its heat dissipation capacity, creating a potentially dangerous self-reinforcing cycle. This phenomenon is often considered the most critical failure mode and can lead to catastrophic consequences.

Loss of temperature control is cited as the main cause of battery failure, particularly in thermal runaway scenarios[1]. When the internal temperature rises, chemical reactions accelerate, generating additional heat in a cascading effect. This process can eventually lead to fires, explosions, or the release of toxic gases[2].

Extreme Temperature Exposure

Both high and low temperature extremes negatively impact battery performance and can accelerate degradation:

High temperatures accelerate side reactions within the cells, increasing the rate of lithium plating and intercalation into the anode[3].

Low temperatures significantly impact battery chemistry, leading to the formation of "dead lithium" which contributes to capacity decay and solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) growth[3].

Battery charging and discharging efficiency is substantially affected by extreme temperatures, whether during a "Norwegian winter" or a "Texas heat wave"[4]. Manufacturers have responded by developing sophisticated thermal management systems to maintain optimal operating temperatures.

Physical Damage and Mechanical Failures

Physical integrity of the battery pack is crucial for safety and performance, with several failure modes stemming from mechanical damage.

Impact and Collision Damage

External impacts from collisions can compromise the structural integrity of battery packs. Failure in lithium-ion batteries is frequently associated with "a collision or impact that damages the pack"[5]. Such damage can create internal short circuits or compromise cooling systems, potentially leading to thermal events.

Internal Structural Failures

Even without external damage, internal structural issues can develop:

Electrode material fracturing and pulverization, particularly on the anode current collector, has been identified as a primary contributor to battery failure through scanning electron microscope analysis[3].

Rupture of cathode materials represents another significant mechanical failure mode within cells[3].

Separator failure can occur when the thin material between positive and negative electrodes is compromised, allowing direct contact between components.

Charging and Discharging Irregularities

Improper charging and discharging patterns significantly impact battery longevity and can lead to premature failure.

Overcharging Issues

Overcharging represents a serious threat to battery health and safety:

Extreme overcharging can lead to severe overheating, with affected batteries becoming "seriously hot" with charging currents that "can reach 2A or more"[1].

Micro-overcharging, a more subtle but equally damaging phenomenon, occurs when the battery management system cannot identify and address slightly overcharged cells[3]. This condition "expedites the battery's aging process and accelerates the formation of the solid electrolyte interphase"[3].

Discharge-Related Problems

Discharge patterns also impact battery health:

Over-discharge events strain battery chemistry and can lead to irreversible capacity loss[5].

Research indicates that both full charging and full discharging are "damaging to battery life"[4], suggesting that maintaining partial states of charge is preferable for longevity.

Electrochemical Degradation Mechanisms

Various electrochemical processes contribute to battery degradation and eventual failure over time.

Dendrite Formation

The growth of lithium dendrites—needle-like structures that form during charging—represents a significant failure mechanism:

During micro-overcharging cycles, "lithium plating takes place at the interface of the anode and the separator," leading to metallic lithium accumulation[3].

Once this accumulation reaches a critical threshold, lithium dendrites emerge, creating a "significant risk of internal short circuits, battery malfunction, and thermal runaway events"[3].

Studies using scanning electron microscopy have confirmed that "the number of lithium dendrites in the negative electrode increases during the ongoing process of micro-overcharge cycling"[3].

Solid Electrolyte Interphase (SEI) Issues

The SEI layer—formed between the electrode and electrolyte—plays a crucial role in battery function:

Rapid formation and thickening of the SEI layer is associated with battery failure under micro-overcharging conditions[3].

This thickening contributes to increased internal resistance and reduced capacity over time.

Battery Management System Failures

The sophisticated electronics that monitor and control battery operation can themselves become points of failure.

Control System Malfunctions

Battery management systems (BMS) serve as critical safeguards:

When the BMS fails to properly monitor and control cell balance, individual cells may experience minor degrees of overcharge or over-discharge[5].

In scenarios where "the battery management system is unable to promptly identify and address overcharged cells," cycles of micro-overcharging can perpetuate, accelerating degradation[3].

Thermal Management System Failures

Cooling systems are essential for maintaining optimal battery temperature:

Failure of thermal management components can prevent adequate heat dissipation, potentially leading to thermal runaway events.

After water loss in certain battery designs, "the heat generated inside the battery can only dissipate heat through the battery tank"[1]. If heat dissipation becomes insufficient, temperature escalation follows.

Manufacturing and Design Factors

Inherent characteristics of battery design and production can contribute to failure susceptibility.

Cell Inconsistency Issues

Manufacturing variations between cells create vulnerabilities:

"Inherent inconsistencies among individual cells" within battery packs can lead to uneven charging and discharging patterns[3].

These inconsistencies make it difficult for battery management systems to maintain optimal conditions across all cells.

Structural Design Compromises

Design choices may prioritize energy density at the expense of robustness:

To increase battery capacity, manufacturers may use "relatively thinner" partitions compared to other battery types, making them more vulnerable to damage[2].

When these thin partitions are compromised, problems like "lead sulfate crystallization and growth" can occur, potentially leading to short circuits through a phenomenon called "lead branch bridging"[2].

Maintenance and Usage Factors

How batteries are maintained and used significantly impacts their longevity.

Inadequate Maintenance

Proper battery maintenance is essential for longevity:

"Batteries that are overstocked and not maintained regularly" are prone to failure[2].

Poor battery maintenance can directly contribute to internal short circuits that trigger thermal runaway events[1].

Dehydration

Water loss within certain battery designs represents a specific failure mechanism:

After dehydration, "the ultrafine glass fiber partition in the battery shrinks, making the adhesion with the positive and negative plate worse"[1].

This process increases internal resistance and heat generation during operation.

Since water has the "largest heat capacity in the battery," its loss significantly reduces the battery's ability to absorb and regulate heat[1].

Conclusion

Battery pack failures in electric vehicles stem from a complex interplay of thermal, mechanical, electrochemical, and management factors. Understanding these diverse failure mechanisms is crucial for designing more robust systems and implementing effective preventive measures.

Modern electric vehicle manufacturers have responded to these challenges with sophisticated battery management systems, thermal regulation technologies, and structural protections. These advancements, coupled with standard industry warranties of "at least an eight-year, 100,000-mile warranty on EV battery packs"[4], reflect growing confidence in addressing the major failure modes that once posed significant concerns for electric vehicle adoption.

As battery technology continues to evolve, ongoing research into failure mechanisms remains essential for developing increasingly reliable and safe energy storage solutions for electric vehicles.

⁂​



https://semcouniversity.com/causes-of-battery-failure-in-electric-vehicles/

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/common-failure-modes-amp-causes-electric-vehicle-batteries-

https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11084451/

https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a31875141/electric-car-battery-life/

https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/deep-dive-battery-failure-mechanisms
 

ssun30

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One of the experiments I watched was a stack of pouch cells totalling 55 kWh with a constant heat source on one side of the stack.

For the first 20 minutes nothing was observed, then suddenly one of the cells went into thermal runaway and began off gassing highly toxic vapors from the pack. Ignition happened 2 minutes later followed by a chain reaction of thermal runaways in the whole pack with jet flames coming out of both sides of the pack. At the 25 minute mark the entirety of the electrochemical energy was released with an average of 1.1MW but peaked at over 10MW. But the majority of the energy release is from burning of the pack material made from plastic which released about 1.6 GJ within the same period. In total 85% of the energy in the five minutes after the first cell went into thermal runaway.

This experiment was a good approximation of an EV having a DC fast-charge malfunction, or a battery heating blanket malfunction that causes hot spots in the pack and set one cell into thermal runaway.

I don't know how many EVs on the market have real-time, always-on, per-cell temperature monitoring. That would be the minimum acceptable safety precautions before EVs can be considered safe. And manufacturers should definitely be mandated to implement these.
 

internalaudit

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^ And BYD is bragging about 10C charging rates.

Manufacturers should make these batteries safer before they tout super fast charging rates.
 
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We sure hope so. Even mid-performance dual motor BEVs with torque vectoring would be spectacular.

That would be a great differentiation from Toyota BEVs.

Definitely will wait and see what future Lexus and Acura BEVs are coming to market though I will probably just wait for solid state batteries (if buying new) since they're probably only three to five years away.
This experiment was a good approximation of an EV having a DC fast-charge malfunction, or a battery heating blanket malfunction that causes hot spots in the pack and set one cell into thermal runaway.

I don't know how many EVs on the market have real-time, always-on, per-cell temperature monitoring. That would be the minimum acceptable safety precautions before EVs can be considered safe. And manufacturers should definitely be mandated to implement these. adcb metro station
thank you so much for your suggestion
 

Kelvin2020

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“It has been revealed that Toyota Motor Corporation is considering withdrawing its plan to make its luxury brand "Lexus" an electric vehicle (EV)-only brand in 2035. The company has an intermediate goal of making all cars sold in Europe, North America, and China EVs by 2030, but has determined that this will be difficult to achieve, taking into account actual demand and local policies. Meanwhile, Toyota will begin producing Lexus EVs in China with its own capital. The EV business, including the Toyota brand, will be split between developed countries and China”
 
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“It has been revealed that Toyota Motor Corporation is considering withdrawing its plan to make its luxury brand "Lexus" an electric vehicle (EV)-only brand in 2035. The company has an intermediate goal of making all cars sold in Europe, North America, and China EVs by 2030, but has determined that this will be difficult to achieve, taking into account actual demand and local policies. Meanwhile, Toyota will begin producing Lexus EVs in China with its own capital. The EV business, including the Toyota brand, will be split between developed countries and China”
YAY!
 

ssun30

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Not time to cheer just yet. What we really want to know is restart development of new generation ICEs with more than 4 cylinders.

Stellantis is restarting production of Hemi V8. German brands are all commited to V8s. Mercedes will even keep V12s. A 3.5L 420PS V6 with a questionable reliability record is NOT sufficient to compete. And throwing a highly stressed 2.0T I4 into everything is an even worse idea.
 

qtb007

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IMO, Lexus core competencies mesh well with electrification. It doesn't have to be a full BEV, but HEV or PHEV with powerful electric motors drive very nicely. Giving the typical Lexus (RX, NX, ES, TX) a little more battery to allow for larger electric motors to give a BEV like driving experience would make for a luxurious drive. That high torque will also support that more traditional luxury feel.

I love big engines as much as the next guy... but I don't think it is really in the Lexus DNA as much as people here believe. Even back in the late 90s/early 00s when you could get a V8 LS, GS, SC, and LX, those were more V8s in the traditional luxury way rather than barnburners that you'd find over in the M cars or AMG cars of the era.

I think the Ramcharger concept (~130kW engine as generator) and all the locomotion coming via beefy electric motors with a relatively large battery pack would work really well in the bigger Lexus vehicles (LX, GX, LS, TX). It would give that traditional luxury feel and allow the engine to mostly be off or at least decoupled from the instantaneous load -- which is where I feel the current hybrid offering sometimes feel less luxurious.

IMO, developing new 8 or 6 cylinders for the larger mainline Lexus models would be foolish. The more people that drive electrified vehicles, the lower the demand will be for ICE only and there's more economy of scale as far as markets if they lean heavily into electrification. The US government can say what they want about electrified policy, but eventually the consumer is going to be asking for it.
 
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mediumhot

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While I applaud for the revision, they should have never went all in aggressively like that, I think many things will change within next five years and they will (all manufacturers) once again jump on EV bandwagon. Just this time it will not be regulation induced but by technology breakthrough. Had they all had technology needed to lead the EV game many of the manufacturers would be all BEV by now.