The Lexus ES has found itself in something of a hot seat lately: recent trademarks hinting at a next-gen model, a refreshed ES that just debuted in China, a shadowy photo from Lexus’ 2021 electrification announcement, and the simple fact that the current car is due for replacement.
So… what’s going on with the ES? Let’s start in chronological order.
December 2021: ES Teased at Lexus’ Global EV Announcement
At Lexus’ announcement declaring the brand’s intentions to be fully electric by 2030, an official concept EV lineup photo quickly went viral among media and Lexus enthusiasts alike:
At the time of this announcement, we shared our best guess at what each of these vehicles on the back row was or would ultimately represent: The LBX, updated UX, updated NX, new RX, TX, and… ES. Why are we sure it’s an ES? Consider the shapes of the greenhouse, window line, and doors – it can only be an ES and matches up almost exactly with the current car:
Since the 7th generation Lexus ES received an all-new redesign for the 2019 model year, it’s logical to assume the following generation might be a heavily refreshed model rather than an all-new one. Another all-new model just wouldn’t make sense… however, Lexus’ 2021 EV announcement was only about two and a half years into the lifecycle of the current model, so we expected that any major change would be a bit further off.
Through it’s history, the ES has had much in common with the Toyota Camry which was substantially updated – though not all-new – for the 2025 model year. This could further indicate that the next-generation ES will be heavily updated, but not a ground-up completely new model.
May 2024: Lexus trademarks “ES 350h,” “ES 350e,” and “ES 500e”
In May of this year, Lexus applied for three new trademarks for the ES line: ES 350h, ES 350e, and ES 500e. With Lexus’ nomenclature, we can assume the first is a hybrid and the latter two will be full battery electric (BEV) models.
There is no ES 350h in the current lineup as the ES 300h is the top hybrid model, though the NX and RX lineups do both have “350h” models with Lexus’ updated hybrid hardware. Similarly, there is no BEV ES, so the ES 350e and ES 500e trademarks should be for new models.
June 2024: Most Global Lexus Markets Announce the 2025 ES as a Carryover Model with No Major Changes
North America, Europe, and other global markets announce the 2025 ES as largely unchanged with a new Black Line Special Edition package, so it is another model year of the the seventh generation ES.
November 2024: Refreshed ES Model Debuts for the Chinese Domestic Market
Earlier this month, several spy photos of an updated ES prototype appeared from China. The shots revealed an exterior refresh with new grille and headlight designs, as well as updated tail lights and bumpers. This raised questions about whether the 2025/2026 ES would be a new model or simply a refreshed one, and then late last week, China pulled the curtain off their new 2025 ES and made it official.
The Chinese market will sell only the hybrid ES 300h and gasoline-powered ES 200, revealing that the updates for the 2025 models are only skin deep as these powertrains are unchanged from recent years. No ES 350h, nor ES 350e or ES 500e were mentioned. China is the world’s second largest economy and single largest automotive market by sales volume, so manufacturers creating dedicated ChDM (Chinese domestic market) models is not uncommon and has been in practice for years by multiple brands including Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi, Volkswagen, Ford, and even Toyota.
Last, it’s worth noting that China’s updated 2025 ES does not match the ES prototype from Lexus’ 2021 EV announcement. This lends more credence to the theory that there will very likely be different ES models for different markets.
So what about the rest of the world?
This question is what we hope to answer, especially as the IS and LS sedans are aging with no updates on replacement models. Could they be delayed to coincide with Lexus’ electric-only aspirations, or might there be all-new models waiting in the wings as Lexus touts their LF-ZC and LF-ZL concept vehicles? Either way, as one of the brand’s top selling models across the globe, the ES is due for an update or a redesign soon.
Reading the tea leaves from Lexus’ December 2021 announcement and then making inferences based on the trademarks for the yet-to-be-released ES 350h, ES 350e, and ES 500e, we think the newly released Chinese-market ES is only for China, and the rest of the world will likely see a newer, more updated ES within the next 8-10 months.
A truly new ES for the 2026 model year that only comes in electrified flavors (hybrid and BEV) feels like the logical transition into Lexus’ BEV future. Such a model would come to most global markets while China’s 2025 ES caters to that market’s specific tastes with design and feature updates to keep it relevant. Could the (more) updated global ES ultimately be launched there as well? Certainly, and it likely will with China’s booming EV demand.
This is only speculation for now but updates on the next-generation ES will continue to be shared as they are available. One thing is for sure: An ES 500e with Direct4 all-wheel drive certainly sounds enticing, and quite unlike any ES before it.