Although Krew's infographic in his news story linked above makes Larry Vellequette's
Automotive News Lexus timeline super-clear, nonetheless, for the record, here's the full text of the
AN Lexus predictions issued in August 2018, with my commentary following in red:
IS: The brand will face a conundrum with its entry-level compact rear-wheel-drive sports sedan soon, given consumers’ move toward crossovers and SUVs. Sales have declined significantly, but a redesigned IS the second half of 2020 should help stir some interest.
Agreed. It should debut at one of the major 2020 motor shows (Geneva in early March, New York in early April and/or Beijing in late April), and enter production in July 2020 (per @Carmaker1) for a 2021 model year debut.
ES: The seventh generation of Lexus’ midsize sedan went on sale in 2018 and will be due for a major freshening in 2022.
That freshening is for the 2022 model year, debuting in fall 2021.
GS: The current generation of the GS sedan has been around since 2011 and is overdue for a redesign onto the TNGA platform. But sedan sales, even in the luxury segments, have fallen dramatically since the last generation was introduced. It’s unclear whether Lexus plans to let its Grand Sedan wither away or to invest in a redesign.
It's anybody's guess what will happen with GS, but, sadly, I think it will likely just die after the ES receives an all-wheel-drive option.
LS: The brand’s flagship LS sedan was redesigned in 2017 and will be freshened in 2021. A camouflaged fuel cell-powered version of what appeared to be an LS was spied testing in California last week, but Toyota has given no public indication of plans to extend its light-vehicle fuel-cell fleet beyond the Toyota Mirai.
Agreed
RC: Given Lexus product cycles, the low-volume performance coupe would be due to transition onto the TNGA platform in 2022. However, reports in Japan suggest that the model could borrow a platform and inline-six engine from Mazda for the next generation.
Like GS, this one's hard to predict. But I'll repeat my suspicion that the so-called Mazda Large RWD Architecture is nothing more than Toyota's TNGA-N (or even Lexus' GA-L) architecture offered to Mazda in exchange for Toyota/Lexus use of the Mazda Skyactiv-X inline 6.
LC: The LC was redesigned in 2017 and would be due for a freshening in 2021, given Lexus product cycles. A convertible will go into production in the second half of 2020.
Agreed, but shouldn't LC Convertible go into production earlier than "the second half of 2020" to go on sale during spring and summer 2020? And what's happening with LC F?
UX: The subcompact crossover is still in its first year on the market, having arrived in North America in December. It will be due for a freshening in 2023, given Lexus product cycles.
As @krew correctly noted, with UX being a volume model that went on sale in late 2018 for the 2019 model year, we should see the midlife refresh in late 2021 (2022 model year)
NX: Given the recent redesign of its RAV4 sibling, expect the NX compact crossover to show off its redesigned look in 2021, when it will be moved onto the TNGA platform. Expect a bolder front fascia, the full Lexus suite of safety systems and upgraded infotainment, among other features.
As I noted in an earlier post on this thread, 2NX should follow the 4IS schedule I listed above.
RX: Lexus’ top-selling RX crossover gets a freshening this year that reworks the infotainment system and adds a touch-screen interface. Given the brand’s product cycles, it is next due for a redesign in 2023.
Again, I agree with @krew. I know that holding off the current 4RX's midlife freshening until the 2020 model year threw things out of whack, but the likeliest debut date for 5RX is late 2021 (2022 model year). I don't see it going past calendar year 2022 (2023 model year).
GX: After a midcycle freshening this year, including a new front fascia, enhanced safety features and an off-road option, the GX is due for a redesign onto the F1 platform in 2022, when it is expected to add a hybrid version.
This is the very earliest we should expect to see 3GX. I wouldn't be surprised if it slipped back another year or so.
LX: The Land Cruiser-based luxury behemoth is due for a redesign in 2023, when it is expected to move onto the F1 platform.
I know there's much uncertainty on the timing of just about anything on the TNGA-F / F1 body-on-frame platform, but I think that the notion of 4LX being pushed back to the 2023 calendar year is just patently absurd. Again, repeating what I posted earlier in this thread, perhaps @Carmaker1 's original prediction of a July-September 2020 start of production for a 2021 model year debut is no longer happening, but I'd say the delay is no more than a year (2021 calendar year / 2022 model year). I certainly don't see 3GX launching ahead of 4LX as Automotive News predicts.
