Lexus Continues Work on First Full-Electric Model

Now that Toyota/Lexus has announced 2020 for a BEV and 2021 for solid state batteries, I guess I'll be rocking my 02 Civic until then. We have the RAV4H to tide us over in the meantime anyway. :)

It puzzles me, how most here have ignored, the only reason Toyota is going to deal with BEVs is China.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...rce-toyota-into-electric-u-turn-idUSKBN17L1VC

Some advisors claim, plug-in EVs will change nothing, except for establishing China as the absolute dominant power in terms of global economy and geopolitics, because China controls rare earth metal supply. Most probably, EV and battery component material prices will skyrocket in the next years.

Only Chemical Industry can solve the environmental disaster problem. They suggest establishing necessary industrial production methods that will revert the results of the environmental disaster. Which means, energy fuel will be a byproduct of a self sufficient Chemical Industry.

I think, that's the target of economies, aiming to become self sustainable and therefore hydrogen societies, such as the Japanese.

isanatori

It puzzles me, how most here have ignored, the only reason Toyota is going to deal with BEVs is China.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...rce-toyota-into-electric-u-turn-idUSKBN17L1VC

Some advisors claim, plug-in EVs will change nothing, except for establishing China as the absolute dominant power in terms of global economy and geopolitics, because China controls rare earth metal supply. Most probably, EV and battery component material prices will skyrocket in the next years.

Only Chemical Industry can solve the environmental disaster problem. They suggest establishing necessary industrial production methods that will revert the results of the environmental disaster. Which means, energy fuel will be a byproduct of a self sufficient Chemical Industry.

I think, that's the target of economies, aiming to become self sustainable and therefore hydrogen societies, such as the Japanese.

You are right in that all nation's EV strategies are essentially energy policies. And you see Toyota is getting ready for China's monopoly on rare earth with its recent development of low rare earth usage motors.

China was the reason Toyota RUSHED its BEV plans. A heavily electrified fleet has always been Toyota's goals and it never bet on FCEV as its sole strategy since Japan and Korea are the only countries committed to Hydrogen Economy (and of course Koreans never buy japanese cars).

If Toyota didn't want BEV it won't be developing a 2030s-era battery (Li-Air) since the 2000s.

Welcome new member @internalaudit

Actually, although China is a major reason, one other reason why Toyota and many other car manufacturers haven't jumped on the bandwagon is because these batteries cost a lot more than engines + transmissions + R&D. This only means smaller profit margins when so far only the Nissan Leaf EV is the mass market BEV available.

Eventually, most car makers will shift to BEV if it means cheaper production costs (higher and higher CAFE requirements) and much lower warranty claims. I don't ever think the engine or transmission is a competitive advantage because lots of car makers outsource transmissions from partners anyway.

The losers in the BEV adoption are car dealerships but even then, they're not going to be deprived of maintenance and repair work but will just be able to upsell on still needless services a lot less.

Toyota already has everything in place if you look at the Prius Prime. Bump the battery size and do away with the engine, and we already get a BEV. I know because we have a RAV4H and it's been rock solid for the past two years.

internalaudit

Toyota already has everything in place if you look at the Prius Prime. Bump the battery size and do away with the engine, and we already get a BEV. I know because we have a RAV4H and it's been rock solid for the past two years.

No they can't. The Prime's battery uses a power-density optimized chemistry. It weighs 260 lbs while only having 8.8 kWh of raw charge (~6 usable). A Prius EV with the same capacity as a Model 3 will have a 2,000 lbs battery.

That's why PHEV is a sound idea on paper but a bad idea in practice: you can only have a battery that is either power-dense or energy-dense, but PHEVs require something in between, so you end up with a compromise that leads to nowhere. Toyota has never developed an energy-density optimized Li-ion battery because Li-ion is a dead end.

Toyota's first BEVs in China will outsource the entire electric powertrain to some indigenous manufacturers. These cars are just like the RAV4EVs that were legally mandated by California. In fact Toyota is so unenthusiastic about the project it used bin parts from the XP90 Yaris and E120 Corolla (produced in the last decade). They are so embarrassed about them that these EVs won't even carry a Toyota badge.

Thanks for the info.

I wasn't talking about using the same battery chemistry, rather, I was saying the Prius Prime already operates like a BEV so it's not like Toyota is so late in the game and can't play catch up.

So it's true that it's better to wait for solid state batteries, possibly with double the density at lower costs?

internalaudit

possibly with double the density at lower costs?

That's exactly what TMC is aiming for, the price target is somewhere around $100/kWh, the point at which an EV can be profitable.

internalaudit

Eventually, most car makers will shift to BEV if it means cheaper production costs (higher and higher CAFE requirements) and much lower warranty claims. I don't ever think the engine or transmission is a competitive advantage because lots of car makers outsource transmissions from partners anyway.

The losers in the BEV adoption are car dealerships but even then, they're not going to be deprived of maintenance and repair work but will just be able to upsell on still needless services a lot less.

I doubt that Toyota dealers will have much less work than now? Or that warranty claims will be much less?
Problem is that when something fails, warranty cost is likely to be huge since small parts likely won't be replaced.

So manufacturers will still charge a sizable sum for checkups and will use that as warranty money for batteries and other parts. Just like Tesla charges mandatory $600 for checkup with no work done.

As to the competitive advantage, they will still buy a lot of things from suppliers and they will still try to have advantage over other brands.
Car manufacturers have huge R&D budget and they will try to do their own parts to make it cheaper and more unique.

There will be some shifting of work for sure, for instance more electrical work will be done at dealers, car batteries and motors need less work to be assembled but something else will take up their place and in the cars will be more and more expensive.

Also, outside of the drivetrain BEVs are just like other cars and all those other parts will need the same maintenance they do in ICE cars. The 5,000 mile service will still involve rotating the tires and checking the brakes and stuff, just not changing the oil and refilling the radiator.

Ian Schmidt

Also, outside of the drivetrain BEVs are just like other cars and all those other parts will need the same maintenance they do in ICE cars. The 5,000 mile service will still involve rotating the tires and checking the brakes and stuff, just not changing the oil and refilling the radiator.

in europe, most brands have oil chainges in 30,000km (2 years) but in reality dealers never had more work to do...

krew

First Full-Electric Lexus to be Next-Generation CT Hatchback?

Ah how sweet it might have been!

Which Lexus models do you think will be electrified first if the CT is really dead?

To me it's looking more like the UX will be first since it now sits on the new GA-C (maybe the same as TNGA) platform.

Which Lexus models do you think will be electrified first if the CT is really dead?

To me it's looking more like the UX will be first since it now sits on the new GA-C (maybe the same as TNGA) platform.

internalaudit

Which Lexus models do you think will be electrified first if the CT is really dead?

To me it's looking more like the UX will be first since it now sits on the new GA-C (maybe the same as TNGA) platform.

100% the UX. Period.

The fact that it is a small, compact (hatchback) crossover, is a good platform to begin on electrification. I doubt they would start something as high as the ES, RX, IS or NX. The UX simply makes sense to be the first electrified Lexus model for a plethora of reasons.

internalaudit

Which Lexus models do you think will be electrified first if the CT is really dead?

To me it's looking more like the UX will be first since it now sits on the new GA-C (maybe the same as TNGA) platform.

100% the UX. Period.

The fact that it is a small, compact (hatchback) crossover, is a good platform to begin on electrification. I doubt they would start something as high as the ES, RX, IS or NX. The UX simply makes sense to be the first electrified Lexus model for a plethora of reasons.

^ Cool. This is perfect if a BEV variant is released for the 2021 MY (I don't even mind 2022 if my 02 Civic is still running fine lol). I want a BEV for our next car and my wife had begun to have a love affair with CUVs, which is why we got a RAV4H.

Between the iX3 and the UX BEV, I would rather save a fortune (in total cost of ownership) and go with the latter. :)

^ Cool. This is perfect if a BEV variant is released for the 2021 MY (I don't even mind 2022 if my 02 Civic is still running fine lol). I want a BEV for our next car and my wife had begun to have a love affair with CUVs, which is why we got a RAV4H.

Between the iX3 and the UX BEV, I would rather save a fortune (in total cost of ownership) and go with the latter. :)

I doubt it will be UX.

Most sense would be to do it for LF-1.

But it could also likely come in some form of NX sized SUV/CUV.

I doubt it will be UX.

Most sense would be to do it for LF-1.

But it could also likely come in some form of NX sized SUV/CUV.

As long as it's the NX and not the RX (way out of our league), we should be good.

Is it because the UX is too small? When is the all-new NX coming out and it should be riding on the GC-A platform, correct?

As long as it's the NX and not the RX (way out of our league), we should be good.

Is it because the UX is too small? When is the all-new NX coming out and it should be riding on the GC-A platform, correct?

internalaudit

As long as it's the NX and not the RX (way out of our league), we should be good.

Is it because the UX is too small? When is the all-new NX coming out and it should be riding on the GC-A platform, correct?

Because of the powertrain, it has to be a lot more expensive. Plus people desire powerful EVs such as Teslas.

Combine those two and it makes sense to have something that you can sell at higher price as desirable vehicle.

Unfortunately if you look at sales trends, right now as well as in the past, most non-tesla (and much less desirable) EVs are actually sold with huge discounts in the end. Currently BMW i3 has $10k discount attached in the California, on the top of other $10k tax incentives.

It is just the way market works currently. For instance Prius Prime sells great right now at 2k per month vs main Prius's 5.7k in the US... But if we know that people get discounts and tax backs and end up paying less for Prime than for regular Prius, it tells you about current affordable EV market conditions.

Maybe some manufacturer that has worse average mpg and no other green cars to offset their truck sales will have been offer. For instance, Kona EV from Hyundai certainly looks interesting.

internalaudit

As long as it's the NX and not the RX (way out of our league), we should be good.

Is it because the UX is too small? When is the all-new NX coming out and it should be riding on the GC-A platform, correct?

Because of the powertrain, it has to be a lot more expensive. Plus people desire powerful EVs such as Teslas.

Combine those two and it makes sense to have something that you can sell at higher price as desirable vehicle.

Unfortunately if you look at sales trends, right now as well as in the past, most non-tesla (and much less desirable) EVs are actually sold with huge discounts in the end. Currently BMW i3 has $10k discount attached in the California, on the top of other $10k tax incentives.

It is just the way market works currently. For instance Prius Prime sells great right now at 2k per month vs main Prius's 5.7k in the US... But if we know that people get discounts and tax backs and end up paying less for Prime than for regular Prius, it tells you about current affordable EV market conditions.

Maybe some manufacturer that has worse average mpg and no other green cars to offset their truck sales will have been offer. For instance, Kona EV from Hyundai certainly looks interesting.

I also think it makes sense to offer BEVs in the Lexus line up first because people are already paying a premium over the Toyota counterpart and margins will not be as pressured if Toyota decides to offer the Lexus BEVs just a tad (thousands of course) higher than the hybrid counterpart as the Lexus target market is going to be slightly more affluent. I don't mind going upscale and financing a Lexus/Infiniti/BMW/etc as long as its a BEV and much more reliable than its ICEV counterpart.

I will not cancel my TM3 reservation just in case that by 2021, all car makers are just selling limited quantities of BEVs, more for compliance outside of China. I hate having to line up and play the lottery when purchasing vehicles.

The i3 should sell as a discount because it doesn't look nice and the range is very limited. Hopefully Toyota does successfully mass market the solid state battery technologies it is currently working on to decrease battery cost and maybe improve driving range by 50%.

I'm not in a rush to jump on the BEV bandwagon because we've got some reliable ICEV in Honda's and a RAV4H. It's just that I'm very concerned about maintenance costs post-warranty will all the new engine and transmission complexities introduced, even by Toyota, to meet CAFE requirements.

I would like to get a very reliable BEV, not just because of instant torque or how fast it can accelerate but more so on savings on travel costs by charging instead of refueling (gasoline is more expensive here in Toronto, Canada that it is in the States) and it being potentially more reliable than the ICEV with new engines are going to be ten years down the road.

I have not sold any car in my household and don't plan to for a few more years.

02 Civic 5 MT
11 Accord coupe 5 AT
16 RAV4H

I was thinking about the IS but since BEVs are really going to become more mainstream in the not so distant future, I thought I might as well wait until 2020/21 when BMW or Infniti will have released their offerings. I am still a believer that Toyota BEVs will be most reliable, judging from how our RAV4H has had no issues though it is a boring driver on ECO mode and steering wheel feel and handling sucks haha.

I also think it makes sense to offer BEVs in the Lexus line up first because people are already paying a premium over the Toyota counterpart and margins will not be as pressured if Toyota decides to offer the Lexus BEVs just a tad (thousands of course) higher than the hybrid counterpart as the Lexus target market is going to be slightly more affluent. I don't mind going upscale and financing a Lexus/Infiniti/BMW/etc as long as its a BEV and much more reliable than its ICEV counterpart.

I will not cancel my TM3 reservation just in case that by 2021, all car makers are just selling limited quantities of BEVs, more for compliance outside of China. I hate having to line up and play the lottery when purchasing vehicles.

The i3 should sell as a discount because it doesn't look nice and the range is very limited. Hopefully Toyota does successfully mass market the solid state battery technologies it is currently working on to decrease battery cost and maybe improve driving range by 50%.

I'm not in a rush to jump on the BEV bandwagon because we've got some reliable ICEV in Honda's and a RAV4H. It's just that I'm very concerned about maintenance costs post-warranty will all the new engine and transmission complexities introduced, even by Toyota, to meet CAFE requirements.

I would like to get a very reliable BEV, not just because of instant torque or how fast it can accelerate but more so on savings on travel costs by charging instead of refueling (gasoline is more expensive here in Toronto, Canada that it is in the States) and it being potentially more reliable than the ICEV with new engines are going to be ten years down the road.

I have not sold any car in my household and don't plan to for a few more years.

02 Civic 5 MT
11 Accord coupe 5 AT
16 RAV4H

I was thinking about the IS but since BEVs are really going to become more mainstream in the not so distant future, I thought I might as well wait until 2020/21 when BMW or Infniti will have released their offerings. I am still a believer that Toyota BEVs will be most reliable, judging from how our RAV4H has had no issues though it is a boring driver on ECO mode and steering wheel feel and handling sucks haha.

internalaudit

I also think it makes sense to offer BEVs in the Lexus line up first because people are already paying a premium over the Toyota counterpart and margins will not be as pressured if Toyota decides to offer the Lexus BEVs just a tad (thousands of course) higher than the hybrid counterpart as the Lexus target market is going to be slightly more affluent. I don't mind going upscale and financing a Lexus/Infiniti/BMW/etc as long as its a BEV and much more reliable than its ICEV counterpart.

I will not cancel my TM3 reservation just in case that by 2021, all car makers are just selling limited quantities of BEVs, more for compliance outside of China. I hate having to line up and play the lottery when purchasing vehicles.

The i3 should sell as a discount because it doesn't look nice and the range is very limited. Hopefully Toyota does successfully mass market the solid state battery technologies it is currently working on to decrease battery cost and maybe improve driving range by 50%.

I'm not in a rush to jump on the BEV bandwagon because we've got some reliable ICEV in Honda's and a RAV4H. It's just that I'm very concerned about maintenance costs post-warranty will all the new engine and transmission complexities introduced, even by Toyota, to meet CAFE requirements.

I would like to get a very reliable BEV, not just because of instant torque or how fast it can accelerate but more so on savings on travel costs by charging instead of refueling (gasoline is more expensive here in Toronto, Canada that it is in the States) and it being potentially more reliable than the ICEV with new engines are going to be ten years down the road.

I have not sold any car in my household and don't plan to for a few more years.

02 Civic 5 MT
11 Accord coupe 5 AT
16 RAV4H

I was thinking about the IS but since BEVs are really going to become more mainstream in the not so distant future, I thought I might as well wait until 2020/21 when BMW or Infniti will have released their offerings. I am still a believer that Toyota BEVs will be most reliable, judging from how our RAV4H has had no issues though it is a boring driver on ECO mode and steering wheel feel and handling sucks haha.

Unless they have to, manufacturers will not release EV's at prices that make them lose money or make less than on hybrids for instance.

2021 is not that far away, but maybe by 2025 a lot of affordable and yet good EV options will be there.

There are many cars that dont look nice and are not great, and yet dont have to have a half price discount like i3 has now, to sell at limited numbers worldwide. All of this is making manufacturers not rush into it.

Toyota hybrids are very reliable. I am not sure what something like Tesla will ever come close to that reliability.

internalaudit

I also think it makes sense to offer BEVs in the Lexus line up first because people are already paying a premium over the Toyota counterpart and margins will not be as pressured if Toyota decides to offer the Lexus BEVs just a tad (thousands of course) higher than the hybrid counterpart as the Lexus target market is going to be slightly more affluent. I don't mind going upscale and financing a Lexus/Infiniti/BMW/etc as long as its a BEV and much more reliable than its ICEV counterpart.

I will not cancel my TM3 reservation just in case that by 2021, all car makers are just selling limited quantities of BEVs, more for compliance outside of China. I hate having to line up and play the lottery when purchasing vehicles.

The i3 should sell as a discount because it doesn't look nice and the range is very limited. Hopefully Toyota does successfully mass market the solid state battery technologies it is currently working on to decrease battery cost and maybe improve driving range by 50%.

I'm not in a rush to jump on the BEV bandwagon because we've got some reliable ICEV in Honda's and a RAV4H. It's just that I'm very concerned about maintenance costs post-warranty will all the new engine and transmission complexities introduced, even by Toyota, to meet CAFE requirements.

I would like to get a very reliable BEV, not just because of instant torque or how fast it can accelerate but more so on savings on travel costs by charging instead of refueling (gasoline is more expensive here in Toronto, Canada that it is in the States) and it being potentially more reliable than the ICEV with new engines are going to be ten years down the road.

I have not sold any car in my household and don't plan to for a few more years.

02 Civic 5 MT
11 Accord coupe 5 AT
16 RAV4H

I was thinking about the IS but since BEVs are really going to become more mainstream in the not so distant future, I thought I might as well wait until 2020/21 when BMW or Infniti will have released their offerings. I am still a believer that Toyota BEVs will be most reliable, judging from how our RAV4H has had no issues though it is a boring driver on ECO mode and steering wheel feel and handling sucks haha.

Unless they have to, manufacturers will not release EV's at prices that make them lose money or make less than on hybrids for instance.

2021 is not that far away, but maybe by 2025 a lot of affordable and yet good EV options will be there.

There are many cars that dont look nice and are not great, and yet dont have to have a half price discount like i3 has now, to sell at limited numbers worldwide. All of this is making manufacturers not rush into it.

Toyota hybrids are very reliable. I am not sure what something like Tesla will ever come close to that reliability.

It's all about the battery cost. As long as that remains steep compare to engine/transmission/R&D, car makers will prefer to sell hybrids, PHEVs or ICEVs.

Battery cost is all that matters whether we see BEV options by 2021 or by 2025, but Toyota seems comfortable stating that by 2025, it will have a BEV variant for its Lexus line up.

i3 is sold in limited quantities so losing money on it is probably okay when BMW will release more exciting BEVs in 2020 -- X3, 4 Series.

For people like me who keep cars for as long as they are not expensive to maintain, BEV makes a lot of sense though I need at least 150 miles during winter for my wife's usage.

Saving $2-3k CAD/year on fuel cost over 10 years is about 50% of the price of a entry-level luxury BEV and also the lower probability of the battery + drive unit conking out (over engine and transmission) resulting in a major cash outflow (be it depreciation when selling or repair) is a welcome factor for me.

Just waiting for a decent priced ($65k and below CAD) and reliable (which is why I'm holding off on a TM3) AWD BEV that can travel 150 miles easily during winter time.

It's all about the battery cost. As long as that remains steep compare to engine/transmission/R&D, car makers will prefer to sell hybrids, PHEVs or ICEVs.

Battery cost is all that matters whether we see BEV options by 2021 or by 2025, but Toyota seems comfortable stating that by 2025, it will have a BEV variant for its Lexus line up.

i3 is sold in limited quantities so losing money on it is probably okay when BMW will release more exciting BEVs in 2020 -- X3, 4 Series.

For people like me who keep cars for as long as they are not expensive to maintain, BEV makes a lot of sense though I need at least 150 miles during winter for my wife's usage.

Saving $2-3k CAD/year on fuel cost over 10 years is about 50% of the price of a entry-level luxury BEV and also the lower probability of the battery + drive unit conking out (over engine and transmission) resulting in a major cash outflow (be it depreciation when selling or repair) is a welcome factor for me.

Just waiting for a decent priced ($65k and below CAD) and reliable (which is why I'm holding off on a TM3) AWD BEV that can travel 150 miles easily during winter time.