Lexus GS Sedan Not Going Anywhere, Will Continue Sales in North America

krew

krew


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IMO, artist has nailed the latest Lexus design ethos on its head with this rendering! Hopefully the next GS doesn’t alienate trad Lexus buyers who like to prioritize understated luxury, refinement and elegance over sportiness and brash expressions of aggression. Lol!

krew

krew


View the original article post

IMO, artist has nailed the latest Lexus design ethos on its head with this rendering! Hopefully the next GS doesn’t alienate trad Lexus buyers who like to prioritize understated luxury, refinement and elegance over sportiness and brash expressions of aggression. Lol!

F1 Silver Arrows

Then if that's the case...... what is the point of the 300B program then? What always agitates me is that why are Toyota/Lexus so tight lipped about everything? Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Jaguar, Volvo. All of these are examples of companies who don't leave their fans/potential buyers in the dark in regards to their future products. I don't know about you guys, but this behavior from Toyota/Lexus has always made me want to look at other manufacturers. That being said, I am one MASSIVE supporter of Lexus/Toyota. What are they going to lose if they tell us about whats coming, or show some teasers to us?

EDIT: I really want a new GS. I would definitely purchase one if they actually put effort and bring it more to the spotlight. I think the problem is the dealers. Many of you guys have mentioned that dealers have pulled many GS buyers and slapped them into an ES. On this side I don't blame Lexus here. It is the fault of the dealers.

True, but on the other hand German endless teasing, is not a good thing either: with heavy camo, with light camo, accurate photo-shop, in darkness, only one detail in light, profile shot without details, without camo with shadow, low resolution deformed 'leak', small sized 'leak' on only one side but not flattering spec, small size 'leak' of interior, finally small size 'leak' of all the rest, final official teaser, high resolution official photos, one month late additional high resolution photos of special spec, final sales images of low-spec boring production cars, new accessories shots, etc....

F1 Silver Arrows

Then if that's the case...... what is the point of the 300B program then? What always agitates me is that why are Toyota/Lexus so tight lipped about everything? Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Jaguar, Volvo. All of these are examples of companies who don't leave their fans/potential buyers in the dark in regards to their future products. I don't know about you guys, but this behavior from Toyota/Lexus has always made me want to look at other manufacturers. That being said, I am one MASSIVE supporter of Lexus/Toyota. What are they going to lose if they tell us about whats coming, or show some teasers to us?

EDIT: I really want a new GS. I would definitely purchase one if they actually put effort and bring it more to the spotlight. I think the problem is the dealers. Many of you guys have mentioned that dealers have pulled many GS buyers and slapped them into an ES. On this side I don't blame Lexus here. It is the fault of the dealers.

True, but on the other hand German endless teasing, is not a good thing either: with heavy camo, with light camo, accurate photo-shop, in darkness, only one detail in light, profile shot without details, without camo with shadow, low resolution deformed 'leak', small sized 'leak' on only one side but not flattering spec, small size 'leak' of interior, finally small size 'leak' of all the rest, final official teaser, high resolution official photos, one month late additional high resolution photos of special spec, final sales images of low-spec boring production cars, new accessories shots, etc....

F1 Silver Arrows

Then if that's the case...... what is the point of the 300B program then? What always agitates me is that why are Toyota/Lexus so tight lipped about everything? Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Jaguar, Volvo. All of these are examples of companies who don't leave their fans/potential buyers in the dark in regards to their future products. I don't know about you guys, but this behavior from Toyota/Lexus has always made me want to look at other manufacturers. That being said, I am one MASSIVE supporter of Lexus/Toyota. What are they going to lose if they tell us about whats coming, or show some teasers to us?

EDIT: I really want a new GS. I would definitely purchase one if they actually put effort and bring it more to the spotlight. I think the problem is the dealers. Many of you guys have mentioned that dealers have pulled many GS buyers and slapped them into an ES. On this side I don't blame Lexus here. It is the fault of the dealers.

True, but on the other hand German endless teasing, is not a good thing either: with heavy camo, with light camo, accurate photo-shop, in darkness, only one detail in light, profile shot without details, without camo with shadow, low resolution deformed 'leak', small sized 'leak' on only one side but not flattering spec, small size 'leak' of interior, finally small size 'leak' of all the rest, final official teaser, high resolution official photos, one month late additional high resolution photos of special spec, final sales images of low-spec boring production cars, new accessories shots, etc....

F1 Silver Arrows

...if anyone has new info on the GS, please shed some light :sob:

I talked with two different sales people at two different dealers in the last month - one indicated that they had been informed the GS was dead while the other said “they had heard nothing official”. I am going to be both heartbroken and mightily pissed if Lexus doesn’t bring out a new one.

F1 Silver Arrows

...if anyone has new info on the GS, please shed some light :sob:

I talked with two different sales people at two different dealers in the last month - one indicated that they had been informed the GS was dead while the other said “they had heard nothing official”. I am going to be both heartbroken and mightily pissed if Lexus doesn’t bring out a new one.

F1 Silver Arrows

...if anyone has new info on the GS, please shed some light :sob:

I talked with two different sales people at two different dealers in the last month - one indicated that they had been informed the GS was dead while the other said “they had heard nothing official”. I am going to be both heartbroken and mightily pissed if Lexus doesn’t bring out a new one.

This situation makes me remember 7 years ago when a lot of rumors said that there won't be next generation Avalon

Now the first gen. after the rumors are just done and we already start seeing the second gen.

This situation makes me remember 7 years ago when a lot of rumors said that there won't be next generation Avalon

Now the first gen. after the rumors are just done and we already start seeing the second gen.

This situation makes me remember 7 years ago when a lot of rumors said that there won't be next generation Avalon

Now the first gen. after the rumors are just done and we already start seeing the second gen.

F1 Silver Arrows

TI don't know about you guys, but this behavior from Toyota/Lexus has always made me want to look at other manufacturers. That being said, I am one MASSIVE supporter of Lexus/Toyota. What are they going to lose if they tell us about whats coming, or show some teasers to us?

Because Car Acquisition Syndrome (C.A.S.) is a relatively rare disease. An overwhelming amount of car buyers don't care what's coming next and a corporation the size of TMC really doesn't want to tease people too early so they stop buying current models. Well, people care when new model is about to hit market because that's when they get the best deals out of the current one, but dealers and car companies don't like selling their products cheap.

Breathe, calm down, quell your inner urge to buy/lease the next hottest car and you'll feel fine. I've waited for the 'next perfect ES' for a decade since buying the perfect XV40 ES350: I know it's a hard struggle. I once regretted not having the guts to go for the GS460 but I imagine it would be much more painful to wait for the 'next good GS'.

F1 Silver Arrows

TI don't know about you guys, but this behavior from Toyota/Lexus has always made me want to look at other manufacturers. That being said, I am one MASSIVE supporter of Lexus/Toyota. What are they going to lose if they tell us about whats coming, or show some teasers to us?

Because Car Acquisition Syndrome (C.A.S.) is a relatively rare disease. An overwhelming amount of car buyers don't care what's coming next and a corporation the size of TMC really doesn't want to tease people too early so they stop buying current models. Well, people care when new model is about to hit market because that's when they get the best deals out of the current one, but dealers and car companies don't like selling their products cheap.

Breathe, calm down, quell your inner urge to buy/lease the next hottest car and you'll feel fine. I've waited for the 'next perfect ES' for a decade since buying the perfect XV40 ES350: I know it's a hard struggle. I once regretted not having the guts to go for the GS460 but I imagine it would be much more painful to wait for the 'next good GS'.

F1 Silver Arrows

TI don't know about you guys, but this behavior from Toyota/Lexus has always made me want to look at other manufacturers. That being said, I am one MASSIVE supporter of Lexus/Toyota. What are they going to lose if they tell us about whats coming, or show some teasers to us?

Because Car Acquisition Syndrome (C.A.S.) is a relatively rare disease. An overwhelming amount of car buyers don't care what's coming next and a corporation the size of TMC really doesn't want to tease people too early so they stop buying current models. Well, people care when new model is about to hit market because that's when they get the best deals out of the current one, but dealers and car companies don't like selling their products cheap.

Breathe, calm down, quell your inner urge to buy/lease the next hottest car and you'll feel fine. I've waited for the 'next perfect ES' for a decade since buying the perfect XV40 ES350: I know it's a hard struggle. I once regretted not having the guts to go for the GS460 but I imagine it would be much more painful to wait for the 'next good GS'.

I think the 2019 ES reveal this year will be very telling. If the car offers AWD and F-Sport options, along with a more upscale interior, that is probably the writing on the wall for the GS.

Every month that passes, the case for renewing the GS gets harder and harder to make. Many cars are dropping off the radar -- fast, while OEMs can't build enough SUVs. In December, Lexus sales breakout was 72% SUVs. Think about that...

I think the 2019 ES reveal this year will be very telling. If the car offers AWD and F-Sport options, along with a more upscale interior, that is probably the writing on the wall for the GS.

Every month that passes, the case for renewing the GS gets harder and harder to make. Many cars are dropping off the radar -- fast, while OEMs can't build enough SUVs. In December, Lexus sales breakout was 72% SUVs. Think about that...

I think the 2019 ES reveal this year will be very telling. If the car offers AWD and F-Sport options, along with a more upscale interior, that is probably the writing on the wall for the GS.

Every month that passes, the case for renewing the GS gets harder and harder to make. Many cars are dropping off the radar -- fast, while OEMs can't build enough SUVs. In December, Lexus sales breakout was 72% SUVs. Think about that...

Levi

True, but on the other hand German endless teasing, is not a good thing either: with heavy camo, with light camo, accurate photo-shop, in darkness, only one detail in light, profile shot without details, without camo with shadow, low resolution deformed 'leak', small sized 'leak' on only one side but not flattering spec, small size 'leak' of interior, finally small size 'leak' of all the rest, final official teaser, high resolution official photos, one month late additional high resolution photos of special spec, final sales images of low-spec boring production cars, new accessories shots, etc....

You say that but despite that having its own downsides, it is much better than leaving your potential buyers in the dark like what Toyota/Lexus are doing. It actually gives potential buyers for something to anticipate for.

ssun30

Because Car Acquisition Syndrome (C.A.S.) is a relatively rare disease. An overwhelming amount of car buyers don't care what's coming next and a corporation the size of TMC really doesn't want to tease people too early so they stop buying current models. Well, people care when new model is about to hit market because that's when they get the best deals out of the current one, but dealers and car companies don't like selling their products cheap.

Breathe, calm down, quell your inner urge to buy/lease the next hottest car and you'll feel fine. I've waited for the 'next perfect ES' for a decade since buying the perfect XV40 ES350: I know it's a hard struggle. I once regretted not having the guts to go for the GS460 but I imagine it would be much more painful to wait for the 'next good GS'.

I'll be honest. I am calm. I really don't have urges (I'm sure most people in this forum are not that intense in this manner), but I just want to see them do better. There are so many alternatives and other ways in which that doesn't bother me at all!! But the problem is that they are shooting themselves in the foot. I want them to do better, they have done everything right in terms of making TMC into such a legendary success! This isn't about me, but they need to stay relevant.

Axing the GS will pulverize Lexus car's image as reliable, secure, taut, extremely sporty and capable and really luxurious, into less cars that ignorant people cannot call "rebadged Toyota's". This won't keep them relevant. They need to keep both ES and GS. Honestly, everything in their lineup are playing such a key role for Lexus, that if they drop any of them, it will hurt them a lot in the future in terms of reputation. However, it won't put that large of a dent in sales that if, the SUV craze continues, they'll be fine.

EDIT: Clarity

Levi

True, but on the other hand German endless teasing, is not a good thing either: with heavy camo, with light camo, accurate photo-shop, in darkness, only one detail in light, profile shot without details, without camo with shadow, low resolution deformed 'leak', small sized 'leak' on only one side but not flattering spec, small size 'leak' of interior, finally small size 'leak' of all the rest, final official teaser, high resolution official photos, one month late additional high resolution photos of special spec, final sales images of low-spec boring production cars, new accessories shots, etc....

You say that but despite that having its own downsides, it is much better than leaving your potential buyers in the dark like what Toyota/Lexus are doing. It actually gives potential buyers for something to anticipate for.

ssun30

Because Car Acquisition Syndrome (C.A.S.) is a relatively rare disease. An overwhelming amount of car buyers don't care what's coming next and a corporation the size of TMC really doesn't want to tease people too early so they stop buying current models. Well, people care when new model is about to hit market because that's when they get the best deals out of the current one, but dealers and car companies don't like selling their products cheap.

Breathe, calm down, quell your inner urge to buy/lease the next hottest car and you'll feel fine. I've waited for the 'next perfect ES' for a decade since buying the perfect XV40 ES350: I know it's a hard struggle. I once regretted not having the guts to go for the GS460 but I imagine it would be much more painful to wait for the 'next good GS'.

I'll be honest. I am calm. I really don't have urges (I'm sure most people in this forum are not that intense in this manner), but I just want to see them do better. There are so many alternatives and other ways in which that doesn't bother me at all!! But the problem is that they are shooting themselves in the foot. I want them to do better, they have done everything right in terms of making TMC into such a legendary success! This isn't about me, but they need to stay relevant.

Axing the GS will pulverize Lexus car's image as reliable, secure, taut, extremely sporty and capable and really luxurious, into less cars that ignorant people cannot call "rebadged Toyota's". This won't keep them relevant. They need to keep both ES and GS. Honestly, everything in their lineup are playing such a key role for Lexus, that if they drop any of them, it will hurt them a lot in the future in terms of reputation. However, it won't put that large of a dent in sales that if, the SUV craze continues, they'll be fine.

EDIT: Clarity

Levi

True, but on the other hand German endless teasing, is not a good thing either: with heavy camo, with light camo, accurate photo-shop, in darkness, only one detail in light, profile shot without details, without camo with shadow, low resolution deformed 'leak', small sized 'leak' on only one side but not flattering spec, small size 'leak' of interior, finally small size 'leak' of all the rest, final official teaser, high resolution official photos, one month late additional high resolution photos of special spec, final sales images of low-spec boring production cars, new accessories shots, etc....

You say that but despite that having its own downsides, it is much better than leaving your potential buyers in the dark like what Toyota/Lexus are doing. It actually gives potential buyers for something to anticipate for.

ssun30

Because Car Acquisition Syndrome (C.A.S.) is a relatively rare disease. An overwhelming amount of car buyers don't care what's coming next and a corporation the size of TMC really doesn't want to tease people too early so they stop buying current models. Well, people care when new model is about to hit market because that's when they get the best deals out of the current one, but dealers and car companies don't like selling their products cheap.

Breathe, calm down, quell your inner urge to buy/lease the next hottest car and you'll feel fine. I've waited for the 'next perfect ES' for a decade since buying the perfect XV40 ES350: I know it's a hard struggle. I once regretted not having the guts to go for the GS460 but I imagine it would be much more painful to wait for the 'next good GS'.

I'll be honest. I am calm. I really don't have urges (I'm sure most people in this forum are not that intense in this manner), but I just want to see them do better. There are so many alternatives and other ways in which that doesn't bother me at all!! But the problem is that they are shooting themselves in the foot. I want them to do better, they have done everything right in terms of making TMC into such a legendary success! This isn't about me, but they need to stay relevant.

Axing the GS will pulverize Lexus car's image as reliable, secure, taut, extremely sporty and capable and really luxurious, into less cars that ignorant people cannot call "rebadged Toyota's". This won't keep them relevant. They need to keep both ES and GS. Honestly, everything in their lineup are playing such a key role for Lexus, that if they drop any of them, it will hurt them a lot in the future in terms of reputation. However, it won't put that large of a dent in sales that if, the SUV craze continues, they'll be fine.

EDIT: Clarity

Agreed, need to have both a (improved) GS and ES in lineup.

And Mercedes E/CLS and BMW 5 series US sales volume is proof that a lucrative top tier premium mid sixed sedan market exists.

Agreed, need to have both a (improved) GS and ES in lineup.

And Mercedes E/CLS and BMW 5 series US sales volume is proof that a lucrative top tier premium mid sixed sedan market exists.

Agreed, need to have both a (improved) GS and ES in lineup.

And Mercedes E/CLS and BMW 5 series US sales volume is proof that a lucrative top tier premium mid sixed sedan market exists.

IS-SV

And Mercedes E/CLS and BMW 5 series US sales volume is proof that a lucrative top tier premium mid sixed sedan market exists.

Are they really, though?

A decade ago, the 5 Series and E Class pretty reliably sold around 6k units per month, then it slowly fell to about 5k, and now - before the redesign - the 5 Series was selling 2-3k units a month. Mercedes combined E Class and CLS sales into one number and that is often around 3-5k units. The market is falling overall.

Midsize sedans might still be more lucrative for BMW and Mercedes because they share engines, platforms and tech across the lineup between C-E-S-CLS and 3-5-6-7, but conservative Lexus has always leaned more on Toyota for economies of scale, versus investing in their own premium RWD assets. I've gone on and on about this, but Lexus decided to stop investing in the GS sometime around 2006 and started more heavily investing in the ES. None of us know what the numbers look like on the back end, but there's no doubt that a platform shared with the Camry, Avalon, Sienna, Highlander, etc. is cheaper to produce than one shared only with the IS. So, Toyota started slowly making their case: No V8 GS, carryover V6, no marketing/awareness for the hybrid, limited options sheet, limited production, etc.

11 years ago, I wrote a post on ClubLexus about how Lexus needed a flexible premium RWD architecture that would allow them to scale their best thinking to all of their models - IS, GS, LS, SC (at that time), RX, GX - the same way that BMW and Mercedes do -- instead of "engineering down" by using Toyota products and then trying to make them "good enough" with wood and leather interiors. In a sense, I got what I wanted with GA-L. In another sense, I didn't because we still have FWD ES and RX, and it's looking like the GS is going away.

I believe the new ES is going to be one of the most pivotal Lexus launches in a very long time. Why? They're at a crossroads here, in many different ways. I do believe they'll drop the GS -- it's too hard to justify in this market, and it's reasonable to expect that they could make the ES good enough to fill the gap it leaves behind for at least 75% of owners. Lexus is going to have to either: 1) really rewrite what an "ES" is and turn it into the Lexus version of the Audi A6 or 2) Completely give up the market and continue to build and engineer the ES as a car that is "good enough" for people who think they want a midsize luxury car. Will they use the 2GR-FKS with only 300hp? Will they unveil a new smaller displacement Dynamic Force turbo V6? Will it get a new Dynamic Force 2.0T? Will they use the same outdated, less capable Dynamic Torque Control AWD system... or will they unveil a new active AWD system? Will it get an F-Sport package?

More importantly, what decisions they make here will also translate to the next gen RX. The RX badly needs a 350+hp engine option, but how can they do that with FWD -- or even with DTC AWD? That system is not good enough for 300+ hp applications, and it's certainly not sporty - at all. If Toyota/Lexus is going to rely on FWD for their midsize products, they have to engineer an AWD system that can take higher horsepower applications or they're going to be left behind.

If Lexus can does the following for ES, I will say that I think the retirement of the GS makes sense.

- Base engine: All-new Dynamic Force 2.0T I4 with ~265hp/280lb-ft of torque "ES 300/RX 300" with 8AT
- Optional engine: All-new Dynamic Force 3.0L turbocharged V6 with ~340hp/360lb-ft of torque "ES 400/RX 400" with 10 AT
- Hybrid option for ES: Li-ion Hybrid system from the new Camry LE "ES 300h"
- Hybrid option for RX: Multi-stage hybrid system with new Dynamic Force V6, ~320hp
- Standard front-wheel drive
- Optional active AWD system with torque split that can flex from 50/50 to 30/70 front to rear (Standard on F-Sport V6)

For one, the next RX almost has to have these types of upgrades to be competitive. Two, so does the next generation Lexus midsize sedan, no matter if you call that an ES or a GS.

If you can buy either:

- an ES 400 F Sport with 340hp, 360lb-ft of torque, 10AT, the F Sport package, active all wheel drive, red leather interior option, etc
or
- an ES 300/400 with luxury package including pleated leather, woodgrain, 12" screen, upgraded wheels, Mark Levinson, Lexus Safety Sense +, Panoramic roof, etc

... nobody is going to even care about the GS. And Lexus knows that. The genius in this plan is that they can also sell a $40k FWD ES 300 with base equipment all the way up to a $65k ES 400 F Sport AWD - totally expanding one product line while saving costs on another. It's all about the Benjamins, baby.

Is the 550i M Sport or E43 AMG owner going to be shopping for this car? No, but are they right now? No.

The only qualm I have with this plan is that I think this car should be named "GS" for many reasons - not the least of which is that the GS is already a global product and the ES is not, and the GS is seen as more premium.

Now, if there is no active AWD option for this new ES and Lexus tries to stuff a torquey turbo V6 (or the 2GR-FKS) into an ES FWD or with DTC AWD, they have failed. Period.

(IS-SV, I went off on a tangent here... not directed at you o_O )

IS-SV

And Mercedes E/CLS and BMW 5 series US sales volume is proof that a lucrative top tier premium mid sixed sedan market exists.

Are they really, though?

A decade ago, the 5 Series and E Class pretty reliably sold around 6k units per month, then it slowly fell to about 5k, and now - before the redesign - the 5 Series was selling 2-3k units a month. Mercedes combined E Class and CLS sales into one number and that is often around 3-5k units. The market is falling overall.

Midsize sedans might still be more lucrative for BMW and Mercedes because they share engines, platforms and tech across the lineup between C-E-S-CLS and 3-5-6-7, but conservative Lexus has always leaned more on Toyota for economies of scale, versus investing in their own premium RWD assets. I've gone on and on about this, but Lexus decided to stop investing in the GS sometime around 2006 and started more heavily investing in the ES. None of us know what the numbers look like on the back end, but there's no doubt that a platform shared with the Camry, Avalon, Sienna, Highlander, etc. is cheaper to produce than one shared only with the IS. So, Toyota started slowly making their case: No V8 GS, carryover V6, no marketing/awareness for the hybrid, limited options sheet, limited production, etc.

11 years ago, I wrote a post on ClubLexus about how Lexus needed a flexible premium RWD architecture that would allow them to scale their best thinking to all of their models - IS, GS, LS, SC (at that time), RX, GX - the same way that BMW and Mercedes do -- instead of "engineering down" by using Toyota products and then trying to make them "good enough" with wood and leather interiors. In a sense, I got what I wanted with GA-L. In another sense, I didn't because we still have FWD ES and RX, and it's looking like the GS is going away.

I believe the new ES is going to be one of the most pivotal Lexus launches in a very long time. Why? They're at a crossroads here, in many different ways. I do believe they'll drop the GS -- it's too hard to justify in this market, and it's reasonable to expect that they could make the ES good enough to fill the gap it leaves behind for at least 75% of owners. Lexus is going to have to either: 1) really rewrite what an "ES" is and turn it into the Lexus version of the Audi A6 or 2) Completely give up the market and continue to build and engineer the ES as a car that is "good enough" for people who think they want a midsize luxury car. Will they use the 2GR-FKS with only 300hp? Will they unveil a new smaller displacement Dynamic Force turbo V6? Will it get a new Dynamic Force 2.0T? Will they use the same outdated, less capable Dynamic Torque Control AWD system... or will they unveil a new active AWD system? Will it get an F-Sport package?

More importantly, what decisions they make here will also translate to the next gen RX. The RX badly needs a 350+hp engine option, but how can they do that with FWD -- or even with DTC AWD? That system is not good enough for 300+ hp applications, and it's certainly not sporty - at all. If Toyota/Lexus is going to rely on FWD for their midsize products, they have to engineer an AWD system that can take higher horsepower applications or they're going to be left behind.

If Lexus can does the following for ES, I will say that I think the retirement of the GS makes sense.

- Base engine: All-new Dynamic Force 2.0T I4 with ~265hp/280lb-ft of torque "ES 300/RX 300" with 8AT
- Optional engine: All-new Dynamic Force 3.0L turbocharged V6 with ~340hp/360lb-ft of torque "ES 400/RX 400" with 10 AT
- Hybrid option for ES: Li-ion Hybrid system from the new Camry LE "ES 300h"
- Hybrid option for RX: Multi-stage hybrid system with new Dynamic Force V6, ~320hp
- Standard front-wheel drive
- Optional active AWD system with torque split that can flex from 50/50 to 30/70 front to rear (Standard on F-Sport V6)

For one, the next RX almost has to have these types of upgrades to be competitive. Two, so does the next generation Lexus midsize sedan, no matter if you call that an ES or a GS.

If you can buy either:

- an ES 400 F Sport with 340hp, 360lb-ft of torque, 10AT, the F Sport package, active all wheel drive, red leather interior option, etc
or
- an ES 300/400 with luxury package including pleated leather, woodgrain, 12" screen, upgraded wheels, Mark Levinson, Lexus Safety Sense +, Panoramic roof, etc

... nobody is going to even care about the GS. And Lexus knows that. The genius in this plan is that they can also sell a $40k FWD ES 300 with base equipment all the way up to a $65k ES 400 F Sport AWD - totally expanding one product line while saving costs on another. It's all about the Benjamins, baby.

Is the 550i M Sport or E43 AMG owner going to be shopping for this car? No, but are they right now? No.

The only qualm I have with this plan is that I think this car should be named "GS" for many reasons - not the least of which is that the GS is already a global product and the ES is not, and the GS is seen as more premium.

Now, if there is no active AWD option for this new ES and Lexus tries to stuff a torquey turbo V6 (or the 2GR-FKS) into an ES FWD or with DTC AWD, they have failed. Period.

(IS-SV, I went off on a tangent here... not directed at you o_O )

IS-SV

And Mercedes E/CLS and BMW 5 series US sales volume is proof that a lucrative top tier premium mid sixed sedan market exists.

Are they really, though?

A decade ago, the 5 Series and E Class pretty reliably sold around 6k units per month, then it slowly fell to about 5k, and now - before the redesign - the 5 Series was selling 2-3k units a month. Mercedes combined E Class and CLS sales into one number and that is often around 3-5k units. The market is falling overall.

Midsize sedans might still be more lucrative for BMW and Mercedes because they share engines, platforms and tech across the lineup between C-E-S-CLS and 3-5-6-7, but conservative Lexus has always leaned more on Toyota for economies of scale, versus investing in their own premium RWD assets. I've gone on and on about this, but Lexus decided to stop investing in the GS sometime around 2006 and started more heavily investing in the ES. None of us know what the numbers look like on the back end, but there's no doubt that a platform shared with the Camry, Avalon, Sienna, Highlander, etc. is cheaper to produce than one shared only with the IS. So, Toyota started slowly making their case: No V8 GS, carryover V6, no marketing/awareness for the hybrid, limited options sheet, limited production, etc.

11 years ago, I wrote a post on ClubLexus about how Lexus needed a flexible premium RWD architecture that would allow them to scale their best thinking to all of their models - IS, GS, LS, SC (at that time), RX, GX - the same way that BMW and Mercedes do -- instead of "engineering down" by using Toyota products and then trying to make them "good enough" with wood and leather interiors. In a sense, I got what I wanted with GA-L. In another sense, I didn't because we still have FWD ES and RX, and it's looking like the GS is going away.

I believe the new ES is going to be one of the most pivotal Lexus launches in a very long time. Why? They're at a crossroads here, in many different ways. I do believe they'll drop the GS -- it's too hard to justify in this market, and it's reasonable to expect that they could make the ES good enough to fill the gap it leaves behind for at least 75% of owners. Lexus is going to have to either: 1) really rewrite what an "ES" is and turn it into the Lexus version of the Audi A6 or 2) Completely give up the market and continue to build and engineer the ES as a car that is "good enough" for people who think they want a midsize luxury car. Will they use the 2GR-FKS with only 300hp? Will they unveil a new smaller displacement Dynamic Force turbo V6? Will it get a new Dynamic Force 2.0T? Will they use the same outdated, less capable Dynamic Torque Control AWD system... or will they unveil a new active AWD system? Will it get an F-Sport package?

More importantly, what decisions they make here will also translate to the next gen RX. The RX badly needs a 350+hp engine option, but how can they do that with FWD -- or even with DTC AWD? That system is not good enough for 300+ hp applications, and it's certainly not sporty - at all. If Toyota/Lexus is going to rely on FWD for their midsize products, they have to engineer an AWD system that can take higher horsepower applications or they're going to be left behind.

If Lexus can does the following for ES, I will say that I think the retirement of the GS makes sense.

- Base engine: All-new Dynamic Force 2.0T I4 with ~265hp/280lb-ft of torque "ES 300/RX 300" with 8AT
- Optional engine: All-new Dynamic Force 3.0L turbocharged V6 with ~340hp/360lb-ft of torque "ES 400/RX 400" with 10 AT
- Hybrid option for ES: Li-ion Hybrid system from the new Camry LE "ES 300h"
- Hybrid option for RX: Multi-stage hybrid system with new Dynamic Force V6, ~320hp
- Standard front-wheel drive
- Optional active AWD system with torque split that can flex from 50/50 to 30/70 front to rear (Standard on F-Sport V6)

For one, the next RX almost has to have these types of upgrades to be competitive. Two, so does the next generation Lexus midsize sedan, no matter if you call that an ES or a GS.

If you can buy either:

- an ES 400 F Sport with 340hp, 360lb-ft of torque, 10AT, the F Sport package, active all wheel drive, red leather interior option, etc
or
- an ES 300/400 with luxury package including pleated leather, woodgrain, 12" screen, upgraded wheels, Mark Levinson, Lexus Safety Sense +, Panoramic roof, etc

... nobody is going to even care about the GS. And Lexus knows that. The genius in this plan is that they can also sell a $40k FWD ES 300 with base equipment all the way up to a $65k ES 400 F Sport AWD - totally expanding one product line while saving costs on another. It's all about the Benjamins, baby.

Is the 550i M Sport or E43 AMG owner going to be shopping for this car? No, but are they right now? No.

The only qualm I have with this plan is that I think this car should be named "GS" for many reasons - not the least of which is that the GS is already a global product and the ES is not, and the GS is seen as more premium.

Now, if there is no active AWD option for this new ES and Lexus tries to stuff a torquey turbo V6 (or the 2GR-FKS) into an ES FWD or with DTC AWD, they have failed. Period.

(IS-SV, I went off on a tangent here... not directed at you o_O )

Agreed the sedan market across the board is falling, crossovers being growth segment. Despite the market shift Mercedes and BMW have continued to sell reasonable numbers of mid (and compact) sedans. I expect this from a top tier lux brand and think Lexus should be there too.

Agreed the sedan market across the board is falling, crossovers being growth segment. Despite the market shift Mercedes and BMW have continued to sell reasonable numbers of mid (and compact) sedans. I expect this from a top tier lux brand and think Lexus should be there too.

Agreed the sedan market across the board is falling, crossovers being growth segment. Despite the market shift Mercedes and BMW have continued to sell reasonable numbers of mid (and compact) sedans. I expect this from a top tier lux brand and think Lexus should be there too.

Gecko

If Lexus can does the following for ES, I will say that I think the retirement of the GS makes sense.

- Base engine: All-new Dynamic Force 2.0T I4 with ~265hp/280lb-ft of torque "ES 300/RX 300" with 8AT
- Optional engine: All-new Dynamic Force 3.0L turbocharged V6 with ~340hp/360lb-ft of torque "ES 400/RX 400" with 10 AT
- Hybrid option for ES: Li-ion Hybrid system from the new Camry LE "ES 300h"
- Hybrid option for RX: Multi-stage hybrid system with new Dynamic Force V6, ~320hp
- Standard front-wheel drive
- Optional active AWD system with torque split that can flex from 50/50 to 30/70 front to rear (Standard on F-Sport V6)

For one, the next RX almost has to have these types of upgrades to be competitive. Two, so does the next generation Lexus midsize sedan, no matter if you call that an ES or a GS.

If you can buy either:

- an ES 400 F Sport with 340hp, 360lb-ft of torque, 10AT, the F Sport package, active all wheel drive, red leather interior option, etc
or
- an ES 300/400 with luxury package including pleated leather, woodgrain, 12" screen, upgraded wheels, Mark Levinson, Lexus Safety Sense +, Panoramic roof, etc

... nobody is going to even care about the GS. And Lexus knows that. The genius in this plan is that they can also sell a $40k FWD ES 300 with base equipment all the way up to a $65k ES 400 F Sport AWD - totally expanding one product line while saving costs on another. It's all about the Benjamins, baby.

Good sir, I see two things from your post that I wouldn't think Toyota/Lexus would do. To begin, do you believe that someone like Toyota/Lexus who spent AGES (must be in bold because it literally took forever) to build the V35A-FTS 3.5 liter twin-turbo V6 engine, and actually just slap in a 3.0L? I see so many who mention that they should put in a 3.0L turbo V6 in their mid range cars, however in my respectful opinion, I don't believe that Toyota/Lexus would do that because it would affect too much from R&D costs (knowing the bean counters from TMC), and I don't think they would do that, considering if they were to, they would need to adapt that engine to all kinds of markets (for example China) where they have a displacement tax, and some other countries, where they crack down on manufacturers in terms of emissions. I mentioned before a few posts ago, Toyota/Lexus would not create a product unless they are forced to. No other company has a mid range 6 cylinder engine then a higher displacement engine for their highest model. The closest I can think of is BMW. Where their single turbo I6 is in the Mx40i cars and the twin turbo I6 is in their M cars, but the same old 3.0L.

My second point is, shouldn't they have released an active AWD with the LS? It is their flagship no? Why release it with something like the ES?

I do like all of your other ideas Gecko, they make a lot of sense and I can see them releasing a new Dynamic Force turbo 4-cylinder engine. It's just that, all this stuff, should not go with FWD. That is why, there is a huge cult following of the GS.