Teased: The Next-Generation Lexus ES Sedan

ssun30

The biggest problem with the ES is that it completely messes up the pricing structure of Lexus sedans, which puts not only the GS but also the IS at risk. Normally there is a progression as cars grow in size. But the ES is this very disruptive executive-size sedan sold at slightly above mid-size prices: that's where the success comes from. It makes the GS completely irrelevant, but also makes the IS hard to sell.

We will probably move this discussion to a different thread but here's the problem with the IS. As an entry level model it should be the biggest seller simply because it's the cheapest Lexus one can buy, this is just how market works. But it has become so impractical to the point that it's always better to jump to a competitor (for sports-oriented buyers) or an ES (for generic buyers) for some extra cost. The IS has a maximum rear legroom of 820mm/32.2in which is laughable when even a Corolla offers more than 36 in. All of its competitors (3-series, C-class, A4, Giulia) feature at least 900mm/35.5in in the rear. People shopping for a mid-size sports sedan don't necessarily care about practicality, but that extra 3-inch is a difference between "unusable" and "slightly cramped". It is a problem IS buyers will immediately notice which makes them think twice. The salespeople would get nervous and immediately try to shift their attention to the ES, funneling even more sales to that single model.

The IS would be a much more buyer-friendly vehicle if it adopts the size of its stablemate, the JDM Mark X/FAW Reiz. Current gen Mark X has a 50mm/2in stretch in wheelbase, which results in 100mm/4in extra rear legroom at the cost of 50mm/2in less front legroom. As a result the Mark X/Reiz is a notably more practical sedan than the IS, despite sharing platform. This slight stretch does not put the car in the executive-size, but still offers almost the same legroom as the GS and slightly more than competition.

And who would ever think this car looks less athletic than an IS because it's longer?


But even then pricing becomes a big problem. Lexus will be very reluctant to raise the starting price of the new ES to give IS more breathing room. It can be argued the "stretched IS" and 7ES can coexist at similar price points aiming at different demographics, but I suspect bean counters at Aichi will have some problems "making the business case" (a phrase enthusiasts all hate).

Still, I think this is a better direction than trying to remake a super exciting $60-70k GS. The lack of an appealing mainstream model is a bigger problem than missing a low-seller. The ES is mainstream, but there needs to be an "anti-ES" as another option, one that is convincing enough that buyers won't turn away from.

This is a great insight.

The way I am looking at it:

The IS and ES compete in the same price segment but they are totally different products. IS is a sporty sedan while the ES is a comfy sedan. I have said this for years but during the sales breakdown the IS and ES should be almost counted as the same when comparing to other sedans like the BMW 3 and 4 series (think of the IS as the coupe version with 4 doors of the ES).

If you are to remove the GS then there would not be any product filling that gap between the IS/ES and the LS. You basically jump from 38k to 75k so there needs to be an option in the 50-60K space.

My solution (while being more costly) is to either repurpose the GS as literally the smaller LS in that price range or make two cars, one focused for comfort and the other one for fun to drive.

I also think the IS should definitely increase in size in order to make the back row more comfy or restructure the interior so there's a sense of roominess.

Yes the ES will become the Global Mid-size sedan for Lexus, but that does not mean the GS will discontinued !

Now the GS is the global mid-size sedan, so its available in nearly all markets that Lexus exists on, there are countries that does not have the ES, such as Japan and Europe in those countries there is GS only, with the next generation ES it will replace the GS and become the global mid size sedan, which mean the countries that have the GS only like Japan and Europe will get the ES only in the future.

The countries that have both GS and ES, both will be continued and we will see next generation GS as well as next generation ES.

For the IS it must grow to compete, at least to the size of its competitors - not the size of the GS -

Yes the ES will become the Global Mid-size sedan for Lexus, but that does not mean the GS will discontinued !

Now the GS is the global mid-size sedan, so its available in nearly all markets that Lexus exists on, there are countries that does not have the ES, such as Japan and Europe in those countries there is GS only, with the next generation ES it will replace the GS and become the global mid size sedan, which mean the countries that have the GS only like Japan and Europe will get the ES only in the future.

The countries that have both GS and ES, both will be continued and we will see next generation GS as well as next generation ES.

For the IS it must grow to compete, at least to the size of its competitors - not the size of the GS -

asoksevil

This is a great insight.

The way I am looking at it:

The IS and ES compete in the same price segment but they are totally different products. IS is a sporty sedan while the ES is a comfy sedan. I have said this for years but during the sales breakdown the IS and ES should be almost counted as the same when comparing to other sedans like the BMW 3 and 4 series (think of the IS as the coupe version with 4 doors of the ES).

If you are to remove the GS then there would not be any product filling that gap between the IS/ES and the LS. You basically jump from 38k to 75k so there needs to be an option in the 50-60K space.

My solution (while being more costly) is to either repurpose the GS as literally the smaller LS in that price range or make two cars, one focused for comfort and the other one for fun to drive.

I also think the IS should definitely increase in size in order to make the back row more comfy or restructure the interior so there's a sense of roominess.

This guy gets it.

Madi

Yes the ES will become the Global Mid-size sedan for Lexus, but that does not mean the GS will discontinued !

Now the GS is the global mid-size sedan, so its available in nearly all markets that Lexus exists on, there are countries that does not have the ES, such as Japan and Europe in those countries there is GS only, with the next generation ES it will replace the GS and become the global mid size sedan, which mean the countries that have the GS only like Japan and Europe will get the ES only in the future.

The countries that have both GS and ES, both will be continued and we will see next generation GS as well as next generation ES.

For the IS it must grow to compete, at least to the size of its competitors - not the size of the GS -

YES! There you go.


For those two above. Gold star. This is how Lexus should move. It makes no financial sense any other way.

sl0519

But then why we haven't seen any prototype / test model on the road yet?

Patience is a virtue.

asoksevil

This is a great insight.

The way I am looking at it:

The IS and ES compete in the same price segment but they are totally different products. IS is a sporty sedan while the ES is a comfy sedan. I have said this for years but during the sales breakdown the IS and ES should be almost counted as the same when comparing to other sedans like the BMW 3 and 4 series (think of the IS as the coupe version with 4 doors of the ES).

If you are to remove the GS then there would not be any product filling that gap between the IS/ES and the LS. You basically jump from 38k to 75k so there needs to be an option in the 50-60K space.

My solution (while being more costly) is to either repurpose the GS as literally the smaller LS in that price range or make two cars, one focused for comfort and the other one for fun to drive.

I also think the IS should definitely increase in size in order to make the back row more comfy or restructure the interior so there's a sense of roominess.

This guy gets it.

Madi

Yes the ES will become the Global Mid-size sedan for Lexus, but that does not mean the GS will discontinued !

Now the GS is the global mid-size sedan, so its available in nearly all markets that Lexus exists on, there are countries that does not have the ES, such as Japan and Europe in those countries there is GS only, with the next generation ES it will replace the GS and become the global mid size sedan, which mean the countries that have the GS only like Japan and Europe will get the ES only in the future.

The countries that have both GS and ES, both will be continued and we will see next generation GS as well as next generation ES.

For the IS it must grow to compete, at least to the size of its competitors - not the size of the GS -

YES! There you go.


For those two above. Gold star. This is how Lexus should move. It makes no financial sense any other way.

sl0519

But then why we haven't seen any prototype / test model on the road yet?

Patience is a virtue.

Wow! Hope this is very close to the truth!
This looks like a very desirable car - and fully capable of replacing the GS, the pricing is what interests me this will be closer to the IS than the GS in this regard.
In fact with the low spec models it may fall below the IS. Confusion reigns I feel.

Wow! Hope this is very close to the truth!
This looks like a very desirable car - and fully capable of replacing the GS, the pricing is what interests me this will be closer to the IS than the GS in this regard.
In fact with the low spec models it may fall below the IS. Confusion reigns I feel.

I think we might see both GS and IS as baby sportbacks, like LS... more focused on sporty while ES picks up lower and upper ends up executive sedan market.

I think we might see both GS and IS as baby sportbacks, like LS... more focused on sporty while ES picks up lower and upper ends up executive sedan market.

If the ES is going to debut at the Beijing show as rumored, that's just a few weeks away now. I think the reveal of the 7ES will tell us almost everything we need to know about the viability of the GS returning.

I love the idea of a more basic "executive sedan" ES and then an IS, GS and LS serving as the sporty, four door Lexus trio. I can always make a case of the GS, but we'll see...

If the ES is going to debut at the Beijing show as rumored, that's just a few weeks away now. I think the reveal of the 7ES will tell us almost everything we need to know about the viability of the GS returning.

I love the idea of a more basic "executive sedan" ES and then an IS, GS and LS serving as the sporty, four door Lexus trio. I can always make a case of the GS, but we'll see...

Gecko

If the ES is going to debut at the Beijing show as rumored, that's just a few weeks away now. I think the reveal of the 7ES will tell us almost everything we need to know about the viability of the GS returning.

I love the idea of a more basic "executive sedan" ES and then an IS, GS and LS serving as the sporty, four door Lexus trio. I can always make a case of the GS, but we'll see...

Indeed, it would be nice to see... but I think it wont be just basic, it will cover existing ES and also GS, so it will go between $40k and $60k.

Gecko

If the ES is going to debut at the Beijing show as rumored, that's just a few weeks away now. I think the reveal of the 7ES will tell us almost everything we need to know about the viability of the GS returning.

I love the idea of a more basic "executive sedan" ES and then an IS, GS and LS serving as the sporty, four door Lexus trio. I can always make a case of the GS, but we'll see...

Indeed, it would be nice to see... but I think it wont be just basic, it will cover existing ES and also GS, so it will go between $40k and $60k.

No no, a "basic" doesn't exist with Lexus, and certainly not with this ES.
It will be completely top-notch, from the base, this will be a world-leading car for Lexus.
But I'm also curious what will happen to the GS, on this they can finally communicate clearly.

No no, a "basic" doesn't exist with Lexus, and certainly not with this ES.
It will be completely top-notch, from the base, this will be a world-leading car for Lexus.
But I'm also curious what will happen to the GS, on this they can finally communicate clearly.

OlFius

But I'm also curious what will happen to the GS, on this they can finally communicate clearly.

Well, this is something that will resolve itself shortly. Feels confusing now, but Lexus will have to address the issue eventually. I imagine they're waiting until the ES is revealed, as @Gecko mentioned.

OlFius

But I'm also curious what will happen to the GS, on this they can finally communicate clearly.

Well, this is something that will resolve itself shortly. Feels confusing now, but Lexus will have to address the issue eventually. I imagine they're waiting until the ES is revealed, as @Gecko mentioned.

For me it will come down to engine options and the AWD system. If they do something 335+hp and an active AWD system, there is no GS coming back.

If they offer a 270-300hp engine with an AWD on-demand system like Dynamic Torque Vectoring, then I will hold out a 25% hope for GS return.

For me it will come down to engine options and the AWD system. If they do something 335+hp and an active AWD system, there is no GS coming back.

If they offer a 270-300hp engine with an AWD on-demand system like Dynamic Torque Vectoring, then I will hold out a 25% hope for GS return.

I say at this point we just need to be patient and wait for the Beijing Motor Show. I will be there for the 7ES launch (if 7ES does launch there).

I say at this point we just need to be patient and wait for the Beijing Motor Show. I will be there for the 7ES launch (if 7ES does launch there).

Gecko

For me it will come down to engine options and the AWD system. If they do something 335+hp and an active AWD system, there is no GS coming back.

If they offer a 270-300hp engine with an AWD on-demand system like Dynamic Torque Vectoring, then I will hold out a 25% hope for GS return.

you probably mean if there is a turbo V6 or not... since there will be certainly V6, as always and apparently many people think there will be a AWD too.

Gecko

For me it will come down to engine options and the AWD system. If they do something 335+hp and an active AWD system, there is no GS coming back.

If they offer a 270-300hp engine with an AWD on-demand system like Dynamic Torque Vectoring, then I will hold out a 25% hope for GS return.

you probably mean if there is a turbo V6 or not... since there will be certainly V6, as always and apparently many people think there will be a AWD too.

ssun30

I say at this point we just need to be patient and wait for the Beijing Motor Show. I will be there for the 7ES launch (if 7ES does launch there).

Oh yeah? Make sure to post photos!

ssun30

I say at this point we just need to be patient and wait for the Beijing Motor Show. I will be there for the 7ES launch (if 7ES does launch there).

Oh yeah? Make sure to post photos!

Gecko

For me it will come down to engine options and the AWD system. If they do something 335+hp and an active AWD system, there is no GS coming back.

If they offer a 270-300hp engine with an AWD on-demand system like Dynamic Torque Vectoring, then I will hold out a 25% hope for GS return.

I've heard no rumors on a new V-6. Not sure if the ES gets some rendition of the LS Motor. My guess is the same 3.5 tuned again as the optional V-6.

Gecko

For me it will come down to engine options and the AWD system. If they do something 335+hp and an active AWD system, there is no GS coming back.

If they offer a 270-300hp engine with an AWD on-demand system like Dynamic Torque Vectoring, then I will hold out a 25% hope for GS return.

I've heard no rumors on a new V-6. Not sure if the ES gets some rendition of the LS Motor. My guess is the same 3.5 tuned again as the optional V-6.

mikeavelli

I've heard no rumors on a new V-6. Not sure if the ES gets some rendition of the LS Motor. My guess is the same 3.5 tuned again as the optional V-6.

you mean 300hp GR V6 as upgrade or?

mikeavelli

I've heard no rumors on a new V-6. Not sure if the ES gets some rendition of the LS Motor. My guess is the same 3.5 tuned again as the optional V-6.

you mean 300hp GR V6 as upgrade or?

The 2GR-FKS is sure to stay (in NA) for at least three or four years considering it's still relatively new. The new 2.5 turbo will take a while to reach the same capacity as the 2GR worldwide.