Lexus Committed to Hydrogen Technology for Future Vehicles

Posted by Kevin on October 11th, 2017

Paul Williamsen, Lexus International manager of global strategic communications, explains in a CarAdvice interview why the brand is reluctant to pursue full-electric vehicles:

“The problem with EVs is a simple matter of chemistry – we won’t be able to get the charging times down,” Williamsen explains. “I’ve worked with batteries enough to know that fast-charging a battery is about the second worst thing you can do to it. There are two ways to abuse a battery: overheat it or fast charge it.

“With the Tesla Superchargers, they don’t publicise it, but if you ‘supercharge’ a Tesla, one supercharge takes 20 charge cycles off the end of that battery’s life. Two supercharges takes 40 charges. That’s simple chemistry; you can’t force the ions through the battery that fast without causing damage.”

Instead, Lexus and parent company Toyota are confident that hydrogen-powered vehicles are the true next-generation propulsion technology:

“Our approach is to have the best and most efficient way of using hydrogen, which has to be a hybrid. Not every automaker thinks that way. They can have a zero-emission vehicle by having a hydrogen fuel cell that directly drives the car, or a hydrogen powered ICE, but they’re using twice as much hydrogen as we are.

“We believe a hydrogen fuel cell EV hybrid is the only way to go, so that’s all we build.”

This is not to say that Lexus will never have a full-electric vehicle:

Being a car company, and a very successful one at that, Toyota won’t miss out on selling EVs where they’re in demand, and they might even end up wearing Lexus badges, according to Williamsen.

“It’s not that we’re not working on EVs at all, and I think there is a place for them, just in cities, for some small, luxury vehicles for commuting,” he says.

“Toyota are sponsoring the next Olympics in 2020 in Tokyo, and you can be sure we’ll be making those a zero-emission Olympics. Those cars will probably be all badged Toyotas but that doesn’t mean there won’t be a lot of technology coming out of that that will benefit Lexus as well.”

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Comments
GSCT
  • GSCT
    GSCT
  • September 19, 2017
All I can say is "get on with it"!

In my opinion Lexus being early to the party for hybrids is offset by being late with plug-ins. And any plug-ins that they do offer should have decent electric only range, something like 100 plus kilometres - if you're late, you'd best be ready to smoke the competition. As to which models, the forthcoming UX and NX would be a good place to start.
maiaramdan
I already thought after the prius prime that Toyota as corp is shifting from the standard hybrid to full plug in hybrid having the best of the 2 worlds
S
maiaramdan
I already thought after the prius prime that Toyota as corp is shifting from the standard hybrid to full plug in hybrid having the best of the 2 worlds
phev sales are very small, they mostly sell in markets where there are big incentives to do so. On the other hand, Toyota sells over 1.5m hybrids per year, while overall all sales of plugins (bev and phev) were 730k in 2016.

So just like everyone else, I assume they will do least amount of range that gives them incentives in those markets, to keep the pricing down. New hybrid system is designed to easily offer plugin version by enlarging the battery.

good read on plugin market:
https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/GlobalEVOutlook2017.pdf
S
This has to be the most exciting thing I've heard from Lexus this year. Now my opinion for Lexus' future has gone up from pessimistic to neutral.

PHEVs can be the best thing since sliced bread or an awkward compromise that does nothing brilliant. The whole point of PHEV is that they can cover most daily commute (especially in highly urbanized region like Asia or Europe) in EV mode only, while still retaining the long-range capability of an ordinary hybrid. Even in U.S. where commute is predominantly on highways PHEVs still do a little better. In that sense they are the cheapest solution that gives the most cut in carbon emissions, in the short term. They don't work that well in real world because it's hard to optimize a battery both for energy density and power density without compromising reliability, part of the reason why the Prius Prime has 'abysmal' EV range.

spwolf
phev sales are very small, they mostly sell in markets where there are big incentives to do so. On the other hand, Toyota sells over 1.5m hybrids per year, while overall all sales of plugins (bev and phev) were 730k in 2016.
Regular HEVs just won't cut it in the near future. The fuel economy test cycles in EU/China/Japan favor PHEVs very heavily because a great portion is start-stop scenarios in cities. While HEVs burn little fuel in this scenario, PHEVs literally use zero. This is why PHEVs have twice the MPG in fuel economy tests in these regions. To meet CAFE regulations in these markets it's way safer to go for the PHEV option. The Prius family are the only hybrid models that can meet the 5L/100km requirement (2020), so I won't be surprised if TMC's future hybrid lineup will be plugin-heavy with non plugin trims as budget options.

The really hard one to beat is EPA's 2025 standard (55MPG or 4.3L/100km across the fleet). But by then there will be enough BEVs to dilute CAFE.
S
ssun30
This has to be the most exciting thing I've heard from Lexus this year. Now my opinion for Lexus' future has gone up from pessimistic to neutral.

PHEVs can be the best thing since sliced bread or an awkward compromise that does nothing brilliant. The whole point of PHEV is that they can cover most daily commute (especially in highly urbanized region like Asia or Europe) in EV mode only, while still retaining the long-range capability of an ordinary hybrid. Even in U.S. where commute is predominantly on highways PHEVs still do a little better. In that sense they are the cheapest solution that gives the most cut in carbon emissions, in the short term. They don't work that well in real world because it's hard to optimize a battery both for energy density and power density without compromising reliability, part of the reason why the Prius Prime has 'abysmal' EV range.



Regular HEVs just won't cut it in the near future. The fuel economy test cycles in EU/China/Japan favor PHEVs very heavily because a great portion is start-stop scenarios in cities. While HEVs burn little fuel in this scenario, PHEVs literally use zero. This is why PHEVs have twice the MPG in fuel economy tests in these regions. To meet CAFE regulations in these markets it's way safer to go for the PHEV option. The Prius family are the only hybrid models that can meet the 5L/100km requirement (2020), so I won't be surprised if TMC's future hybrid lineup will be plugin-heavy with non plugin trims as budget options.

The really hard one to beat is EPA's 2025 standard (55MPG or 4.3L/100km across the fleet). But by then there will be enough BEVs to dilute CAFE.
PHEVs make sense only if government gives you around $7k-10k to recoup the costs and this is where people buy plugins of any kind. Without that kind of support, sales are small. Please look at pdf i linked above for various sales and govt support numbers. It is an excellent read.

As to the CAFE, I already explained before how TMC already meets 2021 fuel economy numbers for EU. China is different - however in China, you get 4:1 benefit when you sell plugin, so percentage of sales soon to be required is more like 2.3% instead of 8% thats written in the law. And in the USA, they also meet the requirements and have enough credits.

So the main reason for them to do anything is to sell in markets where govt gives big support to plugins - like in norway, where market share for plugins in 35% overall due to govt incentives. Thing is that even in Norway, Toyota hybrids sell really well and they are #2 on the market (best in Western Europe?). So even now, these clean requirements benefit Toyota.

It is also true that some governments are phasing out phev incentives and favoring only BEV sales. These are usually ones that have local industry that produces BEVs, like France which has Renault doing Zoe. And for these kind of markets, they need standalone EV to reap the sales. However this has nothing to do with EU 2021 goals, which they should meet already in 2017.
S
spwolf
PHEVs make sense only if government gives you around $7k-10k to recoup the costs and this is where people buy plugins of any kind. Without that kind of support, sales are small. Please look at pdf i linked above for various sales and govt support numbers. It is an excellent read.
Took me a whole night to download a 71-page PDF for whatever reason, will have a read after work.
S
spwolf
PHEVs make sense only if government gives you around $7k-10k to recoup the costs and this is where people buy plugins of any kind. Without that kind of support, sales are small. Please look at pdf i linked above for various sales and govt support numbers. It is an excellent read.
Took me a whole night to download a 71-page PDF for whatever reason, will have a read after work.
mikeavelli
The Panamera's top end model is now the plug in hybrid Turbo......
mikeavelli
The Panamera's top end model is now the plug in hybrid Turbo......
A
I am researching for the future of Lexus. And I believe after leading the hybrid market, Lexus would now want to capture the pure electric vehicle market.
Am I going in right direction? What are views for Lexus future? Will they come up with a new line-up of pure electric vehicle soon?
A
I am researching for the future of Lexus. And I believe after leading the hybrid market, Lexus would now want to capture the pure electric vehicle market.
Am I going in right direction? What are views for Lexus future? Will they come up with a new line-up of pure electric vehicle soon?
S
Aman Verma
I am researching for the future of Lexus. And I believe after leading the hybrid market, Lexus would now want to capture the pure electric vehicle market.
Am I going in right direction? What are views for Lexus future? Will they come up with a new line-up of pure electric vehicle soon?
pretty certain Lexus will not come up with new line-up of pure evs anytime soon. They and Toyota might do one, but otherwise thats about it.
S
Aman Verma
I am researching for the future of Lexus. And I believe after leading the hybrid market, Lexus would now want to capture the pure electric vehicle market.
Am I going in right direction? What are views for Lexus future? Will they come up with a new line-up of pure electric vehicle soon?
pretty certain Lexus will not come up with new line-up of pure evs anytime soon. They and Toyota might do one, but otherwise thats about it.
S
Even in markets that aggressively pursue an all-EV policy, full EV adoption is not expected until 2040s. There are still many many problems to solve. Remember we need 1000 Wh/kg specific energy (on the package level, that is) batteries to fully replace ICEs and getting there is not trivial.
S
Even in markets that aggressively pursue an all-EV policy, full EV adoption is not expected until 2040s. There are still many many problems to solve. Remember we need 1000 Wh/kg specific energy (on the package level, that is) batteries to fully replace ICEs and getting there is not trivial.
krew
Lexus to Skip Plug-In Hybrids, Move Directly to Fuel-Cell and Full-Electric Powertrains

[​IMG]

Lexus Europe boss Alain Uyttenhoven is definitive in his comments to Auto Express.
View the original article post
krew
Lexus to Skip Plug-In Hybrids, Move Directly to Fuel-Cell and Full-Electric Powertrains

[​IMG]

Lexus Europe boss Alain Uyttenhoven is definitive in his comments to Auto Express.
View the original article post
L
Makes sense, I always thought that way. HEVs are a good way to reduce consumption/emissions. BEVs/HFCEVs are zero emission (leaving wheel-to-well out of the equation). PHEVs are a bad compromise, being neither one not the other, and having the disadvantages of both. That is what the Germans do, and those cars are for PR purposes only and work thanks to the "electrified" loop-hole. What does make sense are REx-EVs, but the issue is that there is no range extender that is specified for the task, which is to be simple, light and compact. Current ICEs are not appropriate for REx-EVs. Looking forward o Lexus BEVs.
L
Makes sense, I always thought that way. HEVs are a good way to reduce consumption/emissions. BEVs/HFCEVs are zero emission (leaving wheel-to-well out of the equation). PHEVs are a bad compromise, being neither one not the other, and having the disadvantages of both. That is what the Germans do, and those cars are for PR purposes only and work thanks to the "electrified" loop-hole. What does make sense are REx-EVs, but the issue is that there is no range extender that is specified for the task, which is to be simple, light and compact. Current ICEs are not appropriate for REx-EVs. Looking forward o Lexus BEVs.
S
I am not so sure what will they do in next 4-5 years. It depends on the market.

What I keep pointing out and find specifically interesting is that most of these manufacturers are using "electrification" as their PR theme... while they do little about it when it comes to selling cars.

I just read few days ago that Prius Prime is world's best selling plugin. It is car that started selling in Feb, and only in USA and Japan - not yet for Europe. And for all the big words from other manufacturers, it becomes best selling plugin vehicle right away.



http://insideevs.com/nearly-103000-plug-in-evs-sold-worldwide-in-august-almost-a-new-record/
S
I am not so sure what will they do in next 4-5 years. It depends on the market.

What I keep pointing out and find specifically interesting is that most of these manufacturers are using "electrification" as their PR theme... while they do little about it when it comes to selling cars.

I just read few days ago that Prius Prime is world's best selling plugin. It is car that started selling in Feb, and only in USA and Japan - not yet for Europe. And for all the big words from other manufacturers, it becomes best selling plugin vehicle right away.



http://insideevs.com/nearly-103000-plug-in-evs-sold-worldwide-in-august-almost-a-new-record/
S
It's so funny that the entire EV industry, automotive press, and environmentalist clubs hated the Prime when it was launched, claiming how crippling the 25 mi EV-range is in the U.S. I hated it initially as well. And yet it is now the best selling plug-in.
S
It's so funny that the entire EV industry, automotive press, and environmentalist clubs hated the Prime when it was launched, claiming how crippling the 25 mi EV-range is in the U.S. I hated it initially as well. And yet it is now the best selling plug-in.
S
ssun30
It's so funny that the entire EV industry, automotive press, and environmentalist clubs hated the Prime when it was launched, claiming how crippling the 25 mi EV-range is in the U.S. I hated it initially as well. And yet it is now the best selling plug-in.
And from Toyota, plug-in non believer.... Funniest part is 0 sold in EU so far, deliveries start this month, so they will increase their monthly sales by 50% at least, since Toyota is traditionally strong in EU countries where there are big benefits for plugins.
S
ssun30
It's so funny that the entire EV industry, automotive press, and environmentalist clubs hated the Prime when it was launched, claiming how crippling the 25 mi EV-range is in the U.S. I hated it initially as well. And yet it is now the best selling plug-in.
And from Toyota, plug-in non believer.... Funniest part is 0 sold in EU so far, deliveries start this month, so they will increase their monthly sales by 50% at least, since Toyota is traditionally strong in EU countries where there are big benefits for plugins.
S
Levi
Makes sense, I always thought that way. HEVs are a good way to reduce consumption/emissions. BEVs/HFCEVs are zero emission (leaving wheel-to-well out of the equation). PHEVs are a bad compromise, being neither one not the other, and having the disadvantages of both. That is what the Germans do, and those cars are for PR purposes only and work thanks to the "electrified" loop-hole. What does make sense are REx-EVs, but the issue is that there is no range extender that is specified for the task, which is to be simple, light and compact. Current ICEs are not appropriate for REx-EVs. Looking forward o Lexus BEVs.
TMC missed the chance to launch PHEVs while they still made sense. Guess they waited too long for the 1st Gen Prius PHEV to prove the reliability of the Li-ion batteries. Now the window is gone and it's for the interest to focus 100% on BEVs.

Interestingly TMC has been developing the "free piston engine generator (FPEG)" for REx-EVs that almost has a thermal efficiency close to the theoretical maximum.
S
Levi
Makes sense, I always thought that way. HEVs are a good way to reduce consumption/emissions. BEVs/HFCEVs are zero emission (leaving wheel-to-well out of the equation). PHEVs are a bad compromise, being neither one not the other, and having the disadvantages of both. That is what the Germans do, and those cars are for PR purposes only and work thanks to the "electrified" loop-hole. What does make sense are REx-EVs, but the issue is that there is no range extender that is specified for the task, which is to be simple, light and compact. Current ICEs are not appropriate for REx-EVs. Looking forward o Lexus BEVs.
TMC missed the chance to launch PHEVs while they still made sense. Guess they waited too long for the 1st Gen Prius PHEV to prove the reliability of the Li-ion batteries. Now the window is gone and it's for the interest to focus 100% on BEVs.

Interestingly TMC has been developing the "free piston engine generator (FPEG)" for REx-EVs that almost has a thermal efficiency close to the theoretical maximum.
S
ssun30
TMC missed the chance to launch PHEVs while they still made sense. Guess they waited too long for the 1st Gen Prius PHEV to prove the reliability of the Li-ion batteries. Now the window is gone and it's for the interest to focus 100% on BEVs.

Interestingly TMC has been developing the "free piston engine generator (FPEG)" for REx-EVs that almost has a thermal efficiency close to the theoretical maximum.
Maybe plugin-hybrids are dead in China due to regulation specifying around 4% for EVs in 2019... definitely not in Europe and USA where regulation leaves them viable... and sales. All of the CO2 targets in EU and US will be made possible with the use of plugins.

Even if batteries become cheaper to make EVs more viable, it will also make plugin-hybrids with low range (50 miles?) even more viable since it would be easy and cheap to add to existing hybrid powertrains. And in 4-5 years most of the engines will be some kind of hybrid, even if mild.
S
ssun30
TMC missed the chance to launch PHEVs while they still made sense. Guess they waited too long for the 1st Gen Prius PHEV to prove the reliability of the Li-ion batteries. Now the window is gone and it's for the interest to focus 100% on BEVs.

Interestingly TMC has been developing the "free piston engine generator (FPEG)" for REx-EVs that almost has a thermal efficiency close to the theoretical maximum.
Maybe plugin-hybrids are dead in China due to regulation specifying around 4% for EVs in 2019... definitely not in Europe and USA where regulation leaves them viable... and sales. All of the CO2 targets in EU and US will be made possible with the use of plugins.

Even if batteries become cheaper to make EVs more viable, it will also make plugin-hybrids with low range (50 miles?) even more viable since it would be easy and cheap to add to existing hybrid powertrains. And in 4-5 years most of the engines will be some kind of hybrid, even if mild.
S
spwolf
Maybe plugin-hybrids are dead in China due to regulation specifying around 4% for EVs in 2019... definitely not in Europe and USA where regulation leaves them viable... and sales. All of the CO2 targets in EU and US will be made possible with the use of plugins.

Even if batteries become cheaper to make EVs more viable, it will also make plugin-hybrids with low range (50 miles?) even more viable since it would be easy and cheap to add to existing hybrid powertrains. And in 4-5 years most of the engines will be some kind of hybrid, even if mild.
Actually the death of PHEVs in China is an opportunity for Toyota because all PHEVs in the market will keel over and die once PHEV incentives are phased out. On the other hand, the FAW/GAC duo is set to launch Corolla/Levin PHEVs next year. Toyota promised a starting price of less than RMB 160k, which is less than their current 1.8 gas-only trim (although the Corolla 1.8 is a 'premium' compact car with lots of amenities). This means these two PHEVs will survive on their own without any subsidies, and also undercut competing HEVs in price. Think about it, two plug-ins at lower price than regular hybrids. The Corolla/Levin HEVs are already a huge success, and the PHEVs will consolidate Toyota's dominance in the budget eco-friendly cars.

Just going off-topic for one second, I've just test driven the BYD Qin my company recently bought for business purposes. And OMG is it absolutely insanity! The 300HP hybrid feels more like a 500hp V8. Wheel-spin all the way from 0 to 100 km/h in a sub-$30k car, China is a crazy place.

S