Toyota Sees No Demand for EVs in North America

[krew]

Electrik has an incendiary interview Toyota North America general manager Jack Hollis about the company’s view on pure-electric vehicles:

Regarding EVs, fuel cell, plugin, and hybrid, we started investing in all four of those powertrains at about the same time.
All of these are part of the plan, but doing them in order of the consumer demand. And when you look at it, the demand for electric is less than it is on hybrid.
I don’t think there’s any proof in the marketplace that there’s a demand for EVs.

Hollis takes it even further, positing that consumers want fuel cells more than EVs:

How do you know there’s more demand for electric than fuel cells? It’s like hybrid when we started. There was the logic behind what a customer needs and how customers use vehicles. Would a person...

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[Ian Schmidt]

BEV sales are butting up against the wall of people who are affluent enough to pay the premium over ICE or hybrid, willing to put up with the depreciation, and can tolerate 30+ minute recharge times. Smart EV customers are waiting for solid-state batteries now, which should help both the cost and the range problems (although I'll admit the PHEV RAV4 sounds pretty nifty even without them).

 

[internalaudit]

^ I think for compelling enough BEVs, depreciation will not be as bad until the eight-year battery warranty is expired.

Right now, the reason many BEVs depreciate so fast are (in order of importance, at least to me):

1. government incentives (just like how the Koreans used to provide lots of cash/credit incentives making the MSRP a joke)
2. overpriced to begin with (talk about approximately $20k premium for the Kona and Niro BEVs in Canada)
3. short driving distance
4. no TMS
5. no AWD (isn't more complicated for BEVs and may provide redundancy)
6. lack of ACC, heated steering wheel, heat pump

Waiting for solid state battery is likely the way to go so that we don't have to worry about dendritic growth and internal combustion/flammability.

 

[internalaudit]

No demand my ass. I think Toyota promises 10 BEVs by 2025 and Lexus 2 BEVs (2022 and 2024), if you count the UX300e out.

Car makers' electric vehicle plans — a brand-by-brand guide (updated)

Fancy going all-electric with your next new car? Here are all of the current and upcoming pure-electric models you'll be able to buy.

www.driving.co.uk

 

[GenTenNav]

Are you serious? I've never seen anyone bring up fuel cell in a conversation, ever. Electric on the other hand? Yes, there are always people talking about that. There are always electric vehicles I see on the road too, along with new ones getting unveiled practically each month now by various brands. Yeah Lexus needs to reconsider this

 

[Ian Schmidt]

Are you serious? I've never seen anyone bring up fuel cell in a conversation, ever.

US automotive analysts have stated repeatedly that the US and Canada will probably settle out into a mix of BEV and hybrid or FCEV. FCEV has the advantages over hybrid that it's very easy to share platforms and even full motor drivetrains with BEV, and that it's zero-emission. The downside right now is the lack of infrastructure. But that's a solvable problem if a group of automakers gets together to fund it and/or partners with existing energy companies.

It's worth emphasizing that this is particular to the US and Canada, which are Very Large Countries on a scale that doesn't exist in Europe and where driving 1000 miles on a vacation is a normal thing that people do. In Europe where people vacation mostly by train and the countries are smaller than many US states or Canadian provinces, BEVs are a great fit and will do well. Which is why Toyota/Lexus are introducing BEVs there first.

 

[internalaudit]

I think those people in North America who demand 800 km BEVs are people who are just complaining with no intention of understanding how the batteries work. You know, like people who don't own Mustangs or Fords (and never intend to) and yet complain about Ford's Mustang Mach-E name.

From the few helpful posts that ssun had shared about this topic, I learned the solid state batteries will have a slower charge and there will be compromises between distance and charging rate but I totally accept the compromise if it's safer and is more energy dense (less costly).

For people who drive 1,000 miles on vacation to save money, a BEV purchase is probably not going to make much sense right now, because of the price premium. That's almost like inter-state driving / cross-province here in Canada that I rarely plan on doing. True though that middle class could only have one vehicle but for those who can afford to have two, then a 500 mile BEV is not required and will be outright too expensive.

Heck, in my case, I don't even try to figure out vacation distance. I only take account my wife's 200-220 km driving once a week, factor a conservative 50% drop in range and find out I only really need 300-325 miles of driving range outside of winter but will require heated steering wheel, heated front seats, and preferably a heat pump but if range drop is below 50% without one, then I'm okay not having that.

 

[Ian Schmidt]

I don't disagree, and I think 30 minute charge times are passable even for a lot of interstate driving. You can have a nice lunch while your car charges and not miss a beat.

But what people believe can be powerful. Diesel was a niche for passenger cars in the US mostly because it was introduced by GM in a really awful Oldsmobile that emphasized all of its downsides, not because all of those things were inherent properties of the technology. If the mass market introduction of it had been from Mercedes or Toyota or Honda it probably would've gone over better.

 

[Gecko]

I have seen crazy chatter about the Rav4 Prime on multiple forums for multiple brands. My sense is that Toyota has done it right with that vehicle, and I guess time will tell.

But Hollis' comments strike me as a poor excuse.

 

[Sulu]

I think those people in North America who demand 800 km BEVs are people who are just complaining with no intention of understanding how the batteries work. You know, like people who don't own Mustangs or Fords (and never intend to) and yet complain about Ford's Mustang Mach-E name.

North Americans demand 800 km (500 mile) BEVs to match the range of their ICE cars. With this range, you can drive a full day without having to refuel. Canadians all know someone who wants to drive from Toronto, Ontario, Canada to Orlando, Florida, USA, a ~2100 km (~1300 mile) / 20 hour drive.

From the few helpful posts that ssun had shared about this topic, I learned the solid state batteries will have a slower charge and there will be compromises between distance and charging rate but I totally accept the compromise if it's safer and is more energy dense (less costly).

Do you mean a faster charge rate for solid state batteries, not a slower charge rate?

For people who drive 1,000 miles on vacation to save money, a BEV purchase is probably not going to make much sense right now, because of the price premium. That's almost like inter-state driving / cross-province here in Canada that I rarely plan on doing. True though that middle class could only have one vehicle but for those who can afford to have two, then a 500 mile BEV is not required and will be outright too expensive.

Travelling 1600 km (1000 mile) in a BEV does not make sense (for many Ontarions, like me) right now mainly because of the lack of recharging infrastructure.

This past summer, we did a 2000 km road trip across Southern Ontario into the adjoining province of Quebec. Ontario has great rest areas right on the major east-west highway, each with clean, well-maintained, major chain restaurants and refuelling facilities for cars and trucks. But, they do not have recharging stations. The small towns off the highway may have recharging stations, but that would mean that a BEV driver would have to plan well-ahead and get off the highway at the planned stop to drive into town to search for the station.

All it would take would be a directive from the Ontario provincial government saying that the highway rest areas will have recharging facilities, but EVs are not the government's priority right now.

 

[Sulu]

I don't disagree, and I think 30 minute charge times are passable even for a lot of interstate driving. You can have a nice lunch while your car charges and not miss a beat.

Agreed, but as I said above, the recharging infrastructure, at least here in southern Ontario and Quebec is spotty, at best. There are recharging stations available along the highways here but they are in small towns, installed and maintained by the towns. Using them on long road trips involves wasting time getting off the highway to drive into town to search for them (and risk getting lost). If the provincial (state) government installed them in the provincially-mandated (and extremely busy) highway rest areas, that would make long-distance EV driving possible.

 

[internalaudit]

North Americans demand 800 km (500 mile) BEVs to match the range of their ICE cars. With this range, you can drive a full day without having to refuel. Canadians all know someone who wants to drive from Toronto, Ontario, Canada to Orlando, Florida, USA, a ~2100 km (~1300 mile) / 20 hour drive.



Do you mean a faster charge rate for solid state batteries, not a slower charge rate?



Travelling 1600 km (1000 mile) in a BEV does not make sense (for many Ontarions, like me) right now mainly because of the lack of recharging infrastructure.

This past summer, we did a 2000 km road trip across Southern Ontario into the adjoining province of Quebec. Ontario has great rest areas right on the major east-west highway, each with clean, well-maintained, major chain restaurants and refuelling facilities for cars and trucks. But, they do not have recharging stations. The small towns off the highway may have recharging stations, but that would mean that a BEV driver would have to plan well-ahead and get off the highway at the planned stop to drive into town to search for the station.

All it would take would be a directive from the Ontario provincial government saying that the highway rest areas will have recharging facilities, but EVs are not the government's priority right now.

until the proliferation of SSB's, I doubt any 500 mile BEVs will be affordable ($60k and below CAD). Consumers want to have cake and eat it too. Most who will demand this range will not be buying a BEV for at least a decade or even longer. They just complain like those who insists on manual transmission but don't have the budget to buy cars like the G70, the 3 Series, etc.

SSB will be slower charging as per ssun. I think he mentioned 3C.

to be honest, renting a car makes sense for these one to half a dozen trips a year when a a BEV is not viable. Charging is not free and will cost at least 20c per kW which is not too far from gasoline costs for a fuel efficient ICEV. For households with two cars, not buying a BEV for this cross-country driving reason is incomprehensible if all other driving needs and requirements are met. Just drive the ICEV for these long distance travels.

In my case, my wife drives 220 km round-trip once a week so that's already at least 15% (1 of 7) of the year and about a third of total distance driven by my household. I would be inept to buy a BEV that won't meet that distance a fourth to a third of the year (winter season) when I can play the waiting game with my depreciated Honda's and RAV4H. I doubt my wife will want to charge along the way home in winter.

Maybe I am a more pragmatic and reasonable consumer raising my budget for a BEV that won't do close to 500 miles between charging but I still want torque vectoring.

 

[suxeL]

Classic manager skills. Deny until the product is ready to roll off the assembly line. If you know where to look, you`ll see Toyota testing their BEV vehicles.

Wasnt it Jay Leno who jokingly called out the C8 team leader for having denied the existence or even research study about going mid engine at every press event, until one fine day the C8 rolled around.

 

[ssun30]

SSB will be slower charging as per ssun. I think he mentioned 3C.

I said it's much lower than that. Close to 1C.

 

[Faisal Sheikh]

Being an owner of a hybrid Lexus RX, I totally agree with him. Hybrid is a great concept. I never have to charge the car as it automatically generates its own charge. Plus, I don't have to worry about charging stations being available. For a 5000 lbs SUV with 270 HP, it has great fuel economy as I average between 8 liter/100 km to around 10 liter/100 km of mixed city and highway driving. That is around 32 - 35 mpg (US imperial).

 

[mmcartalk]

I don't disagree, and I think 30 minute charge times are passable even for a lot of interstate driving. You can have a nice lunch while your car charges and not miss a beat.

.......until some punk kids, with nothing better to do in their spare time, decide to go around pulling the charging plugs out LOL.

Safety-locks on the charging-plugs would prevent this, but I don't know if all BEVs actually have them.

But what people believe can be powerful. Diesel was a niche for passenger cars in the US mostly because it was introduced by GM in a really awful Oldsmobile that emphasized all of its downsides, not because all of those things were inherent properties of the technology. If the mass market introduction of it had been from Mercedes or Toyota or Honda it probably would've gone over better.

I have to partially disagree. While, yes, the GM diesel V8s were truly awful (there were class-action suits on them), automotive diesels had, previously, been introduced to the American market on some Mercedes products, and, on a wider scale, by the extremely popular VW Rabbit in 1977. Peugeot, before they left the American market in the 1980s, also, like Mercedes, had some very well-built diesels...but they just did not catch on in the U.S.

 

[phoenixss]

Being an owner of a hybrid Lexus RX, I totally agree with him. Hybrid is a great concept. I never have to charge the car as it automatically generates its own charge. Plus, I don't have to worry about charging stations being available. For a 5000 lbs SUV with 270 HP, it has great fuel economy as I average between 8 liter/100 km to around 10 liter/100 km of mixed city and highway driving. That is around 32 - 35 mpg (US imperial).

I have the non hybrid RX and I average in 9-12 l/100km. The hybrid system in that product is really questionable especially that they wanted 10k more for it, less now. However I’m not certain that Toyota being the king of hybrid bothered challenging themselves in remaining the leaders in that field.

i disagree with Toyota in their overly cautious and wait and see approach. I think this is just a corporation that isn’t innovating anymore and will become just another copy cat. Hats off to Tesla for stretching the boundaries and by challenging the technical limitations, albeit not perfect, but you don’t become an athlete by watching the olympics on tv.

 

[Ian Schmidt]

I have to partially disagree. While, yes, the GM diesel V8s were truly awful (there were class-action suits on them), automotive diesels had, previously, been introduced to the American market on some Mercedes products, and, on a wider scale, by the extremely popular VW Rabbit in 1977. Peugeot, before they left the American market in the 1980s, also, like Mercedes, had some very well-built diesels...but they just did not catch on in the U.S.

Right, which is why I said mostly. Mercedes was fairly niche in the US until the 90s (BMW broke out in the early 80s, of course, but M-B was late to riding their coattails), Peugeot never really took off, and most Rabbits were gas.

 

[internalaudit]

Here's another reason why there is demand for higher-end BEVs. ICE / clutch packs cannot match the adjustment / reaction time of electric motors.

Through the snow as if on rails

Thanks to variably distributable drive power, electric vehicles with separately powered wheels can remain stable even in critical situations— as long as the torque control reliably detects deviations from the target state and reacts immediately. Porsche Engineering has developed and tested a...

newsroom.porsche.com

 

[Ian Schmidt]

Here's another reason why there is demand for higher-end BEVs. ICE cannot match the adjustment time of electric motors.

4 in-wheel motors is definitely the dream for handling in those conditions. I'm curious if that also helps with stopping though. Current ICE AWD systems generally do a decent job of moving in the snow, it's stopping where things can get interesting.

Also I would've liked to have seen a video of it in action, although I suppose it's probably part of some unannounced car.