“70% of Lexus UK Line-up will be Renewed by the End of 2019”

In a recent AutoCar article discussing the sales aspirations of Lexus in Europe, editor-in-chief Steve Cropley tosses out a rather stunning statement:

The arrival of the ES and UX will begin a cycle during which 70% of the UK line-up will be renewed by the end of 2019.

Deciphering this sentence is no easy task, but it could provide some insight into the next year of model releases. Let’s set the table with some facts:

Lexus currently offers thirteen vehicles in the UK, which suggests nine models will see some kind of update.
The UX and ES count against the updates. The RC coupe has just been refreshed, and a RC F update is sure to follow shortly.
The LC coupe and LS sedan are unlikely to see changes so soon after launch.
The CT hatchback was updated just last year, so strike that model off the list as well.

Here’s where it gets interesting, as this convoluted math means five of the remaining six models could be updated. Two are easy — the RX & RXL crossovers seem a sure bet for a refresh in the next year. That would leave the IS sedan, NX crossover, GS sedan, and GS F to fill the remaining three slots, and this is where it all starts to fall apart:

There’s a 0% chance the GS gets updated in the next year.
The NX saw a mid-cycle refresh in 2016, which typically means three years before a next-generation model.

There’s a solution of sorts, when you consider the GS has already be discontinued in most of Western Europe and the new ES is a suitable replacement. Factor this into the calculations, and we start to get into a situation like this: