“70% of Lexus UK Line-up will be Renewed by the End of 2019”

Posted by Kevin on October 23rd, 2018

In a recent AutoCar article discussing the sales aspirations of Lexus in Europe, editor-in-chief Steve Cropley tosses out a rather stunning statement:

The arrival of the ES and UX will begin a cycle during which 70% of the UK line-up will be renewed by the end of 2019.

Deciphering this sentence is no easy task, but it could provide some insight into the next year of model releases. Let’s set the table with some facts:

  • Lexus currently offers thirteen vehicles in the UK, which suggests nine models will see some kind of update.
  • The UX and ES count against the updates. The RC coupe has just been refreshed, and a RC F update is sure to follow shortly.
  • The LC coupe and LS sedan are unlikely to see changes so soon after launch.
  • The CT hatchback was updated just last year, so strike that model off the list as well.

Here’s where it gets interesting, as this convoluted math means five of the remaining six models could be updated. Two are easy — the RX & RXL crossovers seem a sure bet for a refresh in the next year. That would leave the IS sedan, NX crossover, GS sedan, and GS F to fill the remaining three slots, and this is where it all starts to fall apart:

  • There’s a 0% chance the GS gets updated in the next year.
  • The NX saw a mid-cycle refresh in 2016, which typically means three years before a next-generation model.

There’s a solution of sorts, when you consider the GS has already be discontinued in most of Western Europe and the new ES is a suitable replacement. Factor this into the calculations, and we start to get into a situation like this:

Bottom line: The next-generation IS sedan could be released by the end of 2019. Or maybe not.

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Comments
A
It may simply mean, that by the end of 2019 no sold vehicle is older than three years. When streching 2017s as a 2018 model year.
M
I'm pretty sure they are counting face lifted NX in this one as well
Joe
  • Joe
    Joe
  • October 23, 2018
Even taking in to account my insider knowledge, this 70% is a very strange calculation, indeed... ;)
S
next gen CT will likely be presented by the end of 2019... but interesting yes, IS?
maiaramdan
So where those 70% will be sold after Brexit
S
maiaramdan
So where those 70% will be sold after Brexit
brexit wont influence Lexus sales in UK at all, so they will be sold in the UK just like before.
krew
arrow1982
It may simply mean, that by the end of 2019 no sold vehicle is older than three years. When streching 2017s as a 2018 model year.
mediumhot
I'm pretty sure they are counting face lifted NX in this one as well
Except it says that the ES & UX will start this cycle, so it can't refer to any vehicles released before that. Right?

This is all fantasy anyway, the more I wrote the less sense it made. :D
S
krew
Except it says that the ES & UX will start this cycle, so it can't refer to any vehicles released before that. Right?

This is all fantasy anyway, the more I wrote the less sense it made. :D
it makes sense only if IS and CT are presented next year... actually I think CT is guaranteed... but IS would be year early? Maybe they will present it in December 2019, half year ahead?
ILoveLexus
What about the LX ? it's been 11 years since last major change ..
Joaquin Ruhi
spwolf
it makes sense only if IS and CT are presented next year... actually I think CT is guaranteed... but IS would be year early? Maybe they will present it in December 2019, half year ahead?
Per Carmaker1, 4th-gen Lexus IS enters production in July 2020 as MY 2021. If that schedule still holds, I don't see them unveiling it publicly in December 2019.

krew
Lexus currently offers thirteen vehicles in the UK, which suggests nine models will see some kind of update.
With GS and probably GS F about to be discontinued in the UK, it's possible that the 70% number is based on 11 and not 13 vehicles. That would bring the total of updated vehicles down to 7 or 8.

krew
The RC coupe has just been refreshed, and a RC F update is sure to follow shortly.
If the rumored RC F GT becomes a reality, would it count separately from RC F? I'd say probably.

krew
The LC coupe and LS sedan are unlikely to see changes so soon after launch.
True about the changes, but what about additional variants? Could LC convertible, LC F coupe, LC F convertible and/or LS F debut on or before December 2019?

ILoveLexus
What about the LX ? It's been 11 years since last major change ..
LX isn't sold in the United Kingdom. which is the topic of this discussion.
S
Joaquin Ruhi
Per Carmaker1, 4th-gen Lexus IS enters production in July 2020 as MY 2021. If that schedule still holds, I don't see them unveiling it publicly in December 2019.
I would not be that sure... they have been doing this for a while. Both UX and ES have been revealed a long time ahead of the sales in the UK. For instance, Lexus ES has been revealed April 15th, and it will start deliveries in January 2019 in the UK.

So that is 9 months ahead... IS sells peanuts in the Europe right now, so they will not harm the sales like they could for Rav4 - also introduced much sooner than sales and yet sales are not giving up worldwide.

S