Rendered: The Next-Generation Lexus ES Sedan

Many people are dumping on Lexus for dropping the GS even though literally nobody actually knows whats happening.

What we do know is that Lexus is looking to stop in Europe but thats a smaller market compared to other markets.

We also know Carmaker1 posted about the 5GS production program and schedule. If there is a chance for us to know before Lexus announces it, it may have to come from him so hopefully we get some updates on this.

And even if Lexus drops the GS for good, it doesn't mean Lexus will never compete in the space again. They could be taking a break to focus elsewhere or be entering a new segment that makes more sense for the changing luxury market.

Ironically I mocked BMW and BENZ for making the 5 / E as a mini 7 / S version because it will then decreases the 7 / S vision and how the people will say the 7 / S are not special as before even when the 5 / E are still RWD based

No Lexus will dillute LS imagine with a FWD based midsize

I think the ES rendering looks good. Now does it look good enough to replace the GS probably not. Before I got my GS I test drove the ES and while the inside is great the lack of sportiness easily made my decision to go to GS. The IS I also found to be nice but the size or lack of size especially in the back would not work. I pushed to get the GS as I understood that the GS might not be around much longer which looks to be true unfortunately.

I guess the main question is if the ES comes out late this year or early next and maybe it comes AWD (F I think is a dream only) how long until a larger IS comes out to help fill the gap? By 2020? And will they actually bring an F right at launch and not wait a few years?

Like Krew said the ES rendering looks great but to replace the GS totally...sad day for any GS fans as it truly is a great car.

I am shocked at the amount of people mourning the GS. It will not go. Carmaker literally said they are planning for a SOP in the middle of 2019. Let's put it at this because I seem to get a general consensus from everyone.

• Everyone seems impressed with the new ES, however we don't feel that it is a great successor to the GS.
  • My solution is that in 1 or 2 generations from today, they make the shift from an FWD to a RWD platform with a longitudinal engine.
  • Another solution could be is that they could ramp up the ES so well that we forget about the GS, say 1-3 years? And they knock everything out of park with the 5GS. Then the ES could assimilate to the GS/LS/IS RWD/AWD platform.

• Shift the IS in terms of size towards the current GS.
  • With all due respect to those who think they would do that. I would leave Lexus for good if they were to do such thing. Tell me, and think about it. How irrational is it to can a whole model, which is executed properly, can translate into tens of millions of dollars in sales, then to bring their well-known compact sedan to a executive size car? Why not fix the GS, and shift the freaking ES to the same platform as the rest of the lineup. You don't have to look far whatsoever. Look at BMW's playbook, and dear god, Mercedes-Benz is embracing it. 4 DOOR COUPES. Like many of you guys have been mentioning. Can't the GS be a much more dynamic car than the ES? Hell yeah. Seems like a much more inexpensive way to fix the lineup. INSTEAD, can the GS, which is millions of dollars of R&D, hours, and man/womanpower WASTED. Then move the smallest car in the lineup and make it into an executive car size? Come on.
  • I know some of you guys have been mentioning some flaws with that plan, and you're right. But the main issue is right above.

• GS buyers will buy the IS if it's larger.
  • Sure. There may be buyers who do that. But a few of you guys who think it will SAVE Lexus, with all due respect, it just won't happen. You're literally blanking out an entire segment just so the ES can get a few more buyers. People want to have an executive size car, that is RWD, prestigious, luxurious, and in the case of Lexus, reliable, dependable, and simply brilliant. There is that yet principle that I always mention. Sporty, yet luxurious or vise versa. Having simply a larger IS won't solve anything, in fact, Lexus will start to decline into oblivion.

Ian Schmidt

A Camry-sized IS would indeed be pretty cool. A Camry-sized IS F with the TTV6 would be even cooler.

Why TTV6 when TMC have been working on a TTV8???

How about make the ES larger than the GS and make the shrink the GS a bit and enlarge the IS a bit, then make GS the slightly more luxurious and more powerful 4DC version of the IS, and keep RC the 2DC of the IS.

The modular platform makes cost distribution much cheaper so I don't see how axing the GS will really save Lexus that much cost.

CALTY is a very small studio, and there are a lot of just graduated or about to graduate car designers out there in desperate need of a job and does not require much salary to deal with. Why not hire more designers and let them have fun to reinvent the GS as a concept? That concept can also go down to the next RC and IS to distribute cost.

Reversing the role of GS and ES should be a good move because the US is the major market for performance oriented vehicles and the rest of the world don't reallt care, so making the GS more focused in the US market is the best move.

Who knows, maybe TMC is waiting to introduce the GS after they introduce the TTV8, since the GS is a performance oriented sedan.

F1 Silver Arrows

I am shocked at the amount of people mourning the GS. It will not go. Carmaker literally said they are planning for a SOP in the middle of 2019. Let's put it at this because I seem to get a general consensus from everyone.

• Everyone seems impressed with the new ES, however we don't feel that it is a great successor to the GS.
  • My solution is that in 1 or 2 generations from today, they make the shift from an FWD to a RWD platform with a longitudinal engine.
  • Another solution could be is that they could ramp up the ES so well that we forget about the GS, say 1-3 years? And they knock everything out of park with the 5GS. Then the ES could assimilate to the GS/LS/IS RWD/AWD platform.

You guys need to realize that this is very much possible for Lexus to do. I wouldn't be so worked up over it. Yeah, the GS may be gone, but I highly doubt Lexus would be stupid enough to remove such a key player in the lineup. The GS, like the flagship cars, is a car so many people aspire to. With the shift that Lexus is taking, I would be outright shocked if the GS was gone for good. It will never leave.​

• Shift the IS in terms of size towards the current GS.
  • With all due respect to those who think they would do that. I would leave Lexus for good if they were to do such thing. Tell me, and think about it. How irrational is it to can a whole model, which is executed properly, can translate into tens of millions of dollars in sales, then to bring their well-known compact sedan to a executive size car? Why not fix the GS, and shift the freaking ES to the same platform as the rest of the lineup. You don't have to look far whatsoever. Look at BMW's playbook, and dear god, Mercedes-Benz is embracing it. 4 DOOR COUPES. Like many of you guys have been mentioning. Can't the GS be a much more dynamic car than the ES? Hell yeah. Seems like a much more inexpensive way to fix the lineup. INSTEAD, can the GS, which is millions of dollars of R&D, hours, and man/womanpower WASTED. Then move the smallest car in the lineup and make it into an executive car size? Come on.
  • I know some of you guys have been mentioning some flaws with that plan, and you're right. But the main issue is right above.

• GS buyers will buy the IS if it's larger.
  • Sure. There may be buyers who do that. But a few of you guys who think it will SAVE Lexus, with all due respect, it just won't happen. You're literally blanking out an entire segment just so the ES can get a few more buyers. People want to have an executive size car, that is RWD, prestigious, luxurious, and in the case of Lexus, reliable, dependable, and simply brilliant. There is that yet principle that I always mention. Sporty, yet luxurious or vise versa. Having simply a larger IS won't solve anything, in fact, Lexus will start to decline into oblivion.

But then why we haven't seen any prototype / test model on the road yet?

The biggest problem with the ES is that it completely messes up the pricing structure of Lexus sedans, which put not only GS but also IS at risk. Normally there is a progression as cars grow in size. But the ES is this very disruptive executive-size sedan sold at slightly above mid-size prices: that's where the success comes from. It makes the GS completely irrelevant, but also makes the IS hard to sell.

We will probably move this discussion to a different thread but here's the problem with the IS. As an entry level model it should be the biggest seller simply because it's the cheapest Lexus one can buy, this is just how market works. But it has become so impractical to the point that it's always better to jump to a competitor (for sports-oriented buyers) or an ES (for generic buyers). The IS has a maximum rear legroom of 820mm/32.2in which is laughable when even a Corolla offers more than 36 in. All of its competitors (3-series, C-class, A4, Giulia) feature at least 900mm/35.5in in the rear. People shopping for a mid-size sports sedan don't necessarily care about practicality, but that extra 3-inch is a difference between "unusable" and "slightly cramped". It is a problem IS buyers will immediately notice which makes them think twice. The salespeople would get nervous and immediately try to shift their attention to the ES, funneling even more sales to that single model.

The IS would be a much more buyer-friendly vehicle if it adopts the size of its stablemate, the JDM Mark X/FAW Reiz. Current gen Mark X has a 50mm/2in stretch in wheelbase, which results in 100mm/4in extra rear legroom at the cost of 50mm/2in less front legroom. As a result the Mark X/Reiz is a notably more practical sedan than the IS, despite sharing platform. This slight stretch does not put the car in the executive-size, but still offers almost the same legroom as the GS and slightly more than competition.

And who would ever think this car looks less athletic than an IS because it's longer?


But even then pricing becomes a big problem. Lexus will be very reluctant to raise the starting price of the new ES to give IS more breathing room. It can be argued the "stretched IS" and 7ES can coexist at similar price points aiming at different demographics, but I suspect bean counters at Aichi will have some problems "making the business case" (a phrase enthusiasts all hate).

ssun30

The biggest problem with the ES is that it completely messes up the pricing structure of Lexus sedans, which puts not only the GS but also the IS at risk. Normally there is a progression as cars grow in size. But the ES is this very disruptive executive-size sedan sold at slightly above mid-size prices: that's where the success comes from. It makes the GS completely irrelevant, but also makes the IS hard to sell.

We will probably move this discussion to a different thread but here's the problem with the IS. As an entry level model it should be the biggest seller simply because it's the cheapest Lexus one can buy, this is just how market works. But it has become so impractical to the point that it's always better to jump to a competitor (for sports-oriented buyers) or an ES (for generic buyers) for some extra cost. The IS has a maximum rear legroom of 820mm/32.2in which is laughable when even a Corolla offers more than 36 in. All of its competitors (3-series, C-class, A4, Giulia) feature at least 900mm/35.5in in the rear. People shopping for a mid-size sports sedan don't necessarily care about practicality, but that extra 3-inch is a difference between "unusable" and "slightly cramped". It is a problem IS buyers will immediately notice which makes them think twice. The salespeople would get nervous and immediately try to shift their attention to the ES, funneling even more sales to that single model.

The IS would be a much more buyer-friendly vehicle if it adopts the size of its stablemate, the JDM Mark X/FAW Reiz. Current gen Mark X has a 50mm/2in stretch in wheelbase, which results in 100mm/4in extra rear legroom at the cost of 50mm/2in less front legroom. As a result the Mark X/Reiz is a notably more practical sedan than the IS, despite sharing platform. This slight stretch does not put the car in the executive-size, but still offers almost the same legroom as the GS and slightly more than competition.

And who would ever think this car looks less athletic than an IS because it's longer?


But even then pricing becomes a big problem. Lexus will be very reluctant to raise the starting price of the new ES to give IS more breathing room. It can be argued the "stretched IS" and 7ES can coexist at similar price points aiming at different demographics, but I suspect bean counters at Aichi will have some problems "making the business case" (a phrase enthusiasts all hate).

Still, I think this is a better direction than trying to remake a super exciting $60-70k GS. The lack of an appealing mainstream model is a bigger problem than missing a low-seller. The ES is mainstream, but there needs to be an "anti-ES" as another option, one that is convincing enough that buyers won't turn away from.

This is a great insight.

The way I am looking at it:

The IS and ES compete in the same price segment but they are totally different products. IS is a sporty sedan while the ES is a comfy sedan. I have said this for years but during the sales breakdown the IS and ES should be almost counted as the same when comparing to other sedans like the BMW 3 and 4 series (think of the IS as the coupe version with 4 doors of the ES).

If you are to remove the GS then there would not be any product filling that gap between the IS/ES and the LS. You basically jump from 38k to 75k so there needs to be an option in the 50-60K space.

My solution (while being more costly) is to either repurpose the GS as literally the smaller LS in that price range or make two cars, one focused for comfort and the other one for fun to drive.

I also think the IS should definitely increase in size in order to make the back row more comfy or restructure the interior so there's a sense of roominess.

Yes the ES will become the Global Mid-size sedan for Lexus, but that does not mean the GS will discontinued !

Now the GS is the global mid-size sedan, so its available in nearly all markets that Lexus exists on, there are countries that does not have the ES, such as Japan and Europe in those countries there is GS only, with the next generation ES it will replace the GS and become the global mid size sedan, which mean the countries that have the GS only like Japan and Europe will get the ES only in the future.

The countries that have both GS and ES, both will be continued and we will see next generation GS as well as next generation ES.

For the IS it must grow to compete, at least to the size of its competitors - not the size of the GS -

asoksevil

This is a great insight.

The way I am looking at it:

The IS and ES compete in the same price segment but they are totally different products. IS is a sporty sedan while the ES is a comfy sedan. I have said this for years but during the sales breakdown the IS and ES should be almost counted as the same when comparing to other sedans like the BMW 3 and 4 series (think of the IS as the coupe version with 4 doors of the ES).

If you are to remove the GS then there would not be any product filling that gap between the IS/ES and the LS. You basically jump from 38k to 75k so there needs to be an option in the 50-60K space.

My solution (while being more costly) is to either repurpose the GS as literally the smaller LS in that price range or make two cars, one focused for comfort and the other one for fun to drive.

I also think the IS should definitely increase in size in order to make the back row more comfy or restructure the interior so there's a sense of roominess.

This guy gets it.

sl0519

But then why we haven't seen any prototype / test model on the road yet?

Patience is virtue.

asoksevil

This is a great insight.

The way I am looking at it:

The IS and ES compete in the same price segment but they are totally different products. IS is a sporty sedan while the ES is a comfy sedan. I have said this for years but during the sales breakdown the IS and ES should be almost counted as the same when comparing to other sedans like the BMW 3 and 4 series (think of the IS as the coupe version with 4 doors of the ES).

If you are to remove the GS then there would not be any product filling that gap between the IS/ES and the LS. You basically jump from 38k to 75k so there needs to be an option in the 50-60K space.

My solution (while being more costly) is to either repurpose the GS as literally the smaller LS in that price range or make two cars, one focused for comfort and the other one for fun to drive.

I also think the IS should definitely increase in size in order to make the back row more comfy or restructure the interior so there's a sense of roominess.

This guy gets it.

Madi

Yes the ES will become the Global Mid-size sedan for Lexus, but that does not mean the GS will discontinued !

Now the GS is the global mid-size sedan, so its available in nearly all markets that Lexus exists on, there are countries that does not have the ES, such as Japan and Europe in those countries there is GS only, with the next generation ES it will replace the GS and become the global mid size sedan, which mean the countries that have the GS only like Japan and Europe will get the ES only in the future.

The countries that have both GS and ES, both will be continued and we will see next generation GS as well as next generation ES.

For the IS it must grow to compete, at least to the size of its competitors - not the size of the GS -

YES! There you go.


For those two above. Gold star. This is how Lexus should move. It makes no financial sense any other way.

sl0519

But then why we haven't seen any prototype / test model on the road yet?

Patience is a virtue.

Wow! Hope this is very close to the truth!
This looks like a very desirable car - and fully capable of replacing the GS, the pricing is what interests me this will be closer to the IS than the GS in this regard.
In fact with the low spec models it may fall below the IS. Confusion reigns I feel.

I think we might see both GS and IS as baby sportbacks, like LS... more focused on sporty while ES picks up lower and upper ends up executive sedan market.

If the ES is going to debut at the Beijing show as rumored, that's just a few weeks away now. I think the reveal of the 7ES will tell us almost everything we need to know about the viability of the GS returning.

I love the idea of a more basic "executive sedan" ES and then an IS, GS and LS serving as the sporty, four door Lexus trio. I can always make a case of the GS, but we'll see...

Gecko

If the ES is going to debut at the Beijing show as rumored, that's just a few weeks away now. I think the reveal of the 7ES will tell us almost everything we need to know about the viability of the GS returning.

I love the idea of a more basic "executive sedan" ES and then an IS, GS and LS serving as the sporty, four door Lexus trio. I can always make a case of the GS, but we'll see...

Indeed, it would be nice to see... but I think it wont be just basic, it will cover existing ES and also GS, so it will go between $40k and $60k.

No no, a "basic" doesn't exist with Lexus, and certainly not with this ES.
It will be completely top-notch, from the base, this will be a world-leading car for Lexus.
But I'm also curious what will happen to the GS, on this they can finally communicate clearly.

OlFius

But I'm also curious what will happen to the GS, on this they can finally communicate clearly.

Well, this is something that will resolve itself shortly. Feels confusing now, but Lexus will have to address the issue eventually. I imagine they're waiting until the ES is revealed, as @Gecko mentioned.

For me it will come down to engine options and the AWD system. If they do something 335+hp and an active AWD system, there is no GS coming back.

If they offer a 270-300hp engine with an AWD on-demand system like Dynamic Torque Vectoring, then I will hold out a 25% hope for GS return.

I guess at this point we just need to be patient and wait for the Beijing Motor Show. I will be there for the 7ES launch (if that's true).

Gecko

For me it will come down to engine options and the AWD system. If they do something 335+hp and an active AWD system, there is no GS coming back.

If they offer a 270-300hp engine with an AWD on-demand system like Dynamic Torque Vectoring, then I will hold out a 25% hope for GS return.

you probably mean if there is a turbo V6 or not... since there will be certainly V6, as always and apparently many people think there will be a AWD too.

ssun30

I say at this point we just need to be patient and wait for the Beijing Motor Show. I will be there for the 7ES launch (if 7ES does launch there).

Oh yeah? Make sure to post photos!

Gecko

For me it will come down to engine options and the AWD system. If they do something 335+hp and an active AWD system, there is no GS coming back.

If they offer a 270-300hp engine with an AWD on-demand system like Dynamic Torque Vectoring, then I will hold out a 25% hope for GS return.

I've heard no rumors on a new V-6. Not sure if the ES gets some rendition of the LS Motor. My guess is the same 3.5 tuned again as the optional V-6.

mikeavelli

I've heard no rumors on a new V-6. Not sure if the ES gets some rendition of the LS Motor. My guess is the same 3.5 tuned again as the optional V-6.

you mean 300hp GR V6 as upgrade or?

The 2GR-FKS is sure to stay (in NA) for at least three or four years considering it's still relatively new. The new 2.5 turbo will take a while to reach the same capacity as the 2GR worldwide.

Gecko

If the ES is going to debut at the Beijing show as rumored, that's just a few weeks away now. I think the reveal of the 7ES will tell us almost everything we need to know about the viability of the GS returning.

I love the idea of a more basic "executive sedan" ES and then an IS, GS and LS serving as the sporty, four door Lexus trio. I can always make a case of the GS, but we'll see...

That's barely 2 weeks from now.

Unless this is very similar to when the 6ES was announced where we literally got some leaked photos a few days ahead of the debut, we should have seen some concepts/leaks already?

Also, I really do think that the ES should be a GLOBAL product. There's no reason that this product does not exist in the European market. The gap in price before the 4GS (GS300h) was announced between the IS250 and the GS450h was huge, and people just wanted a car that was large, comfy with great MPG/smaller engine/lower price. This is the reason why most executive sedans (E class, 5 Series, S Class, 7 series, etc) sold in Europe are the ones with the smallest engine.

It would be a great idea to start offering the RX with a smaller engine as well, perhaps a more refined version of the 300h in the NX? The price hike from the NX300h to the RX450h just because of a roomier car is not justifiable and people will most likely go to the German competition that does have that offering.

I really do hope the ES can step up the game because if the ES is supposed to be a some sort of GS replacement at a lower price point, they will have to woo prospective customers with a great product because expectations will be high.

asoksevil

That's barely 2 weeks from now.

Unless this is very similar to when the 6ES was announced where we literally got some leaked photos a few days ahead of the debut, we should have seen some concepts/leaks already?

Also, I really do think that the ES should be a GLOBAL product. There's no reason why this product should not exist in the European market. The gap in price before the 4GS (GS300h) was announced between the IS250 and the GS450h was huge, and people just wanted a car that was large, comfy with great MPG/smaller engine/lower price. This is the reason why most executive sedans (E class, 5 Series, S Class, 7 series, etc) sold in Europe are the ones with the smallest engine.

It would be a great idea to start offering the RX with a smaller engine as well, perhaps a more refined version of the 300h in the NX? The price hike from the NX300h to the RX450h just because of a roomier car is not justifiable and people will most likely go to the German competition that does have that offering.

I really do hope the ES can step up the game because if the ES is supposed to be a some sort of GS replacement at a lower price point, they will have to woo prospective customers with a great product because expectations will be high.

there are indeed photos of camouflaged test vehicles as well as concept shots of how it should look like, like baby LS basically.

I agree on 300h vs 450h, huge difference in pricing.

We know that 2020 Highlander coming next year will have 300h version. I assume that RX will have it too, especially in Europe.

ssun30

The 2GR-FKS is sure to stay (in NA) for at least three or four years considering it's still relatively new. The new 2.5 turbo will take a while to reach the same capacity as the 2GR worldwide.

If the ES debuts with the 2GR-FKS, I will be shocked. That engine is great for Highlander, Tacoma, Camry, Avalon, Sienna, but if they can't pull out a new engine for LEXUS' new corporate global midsize sedan, I will be surprised. In a bad way.

Gecko

If the ES debuts with the 2GR-FKS, I will be shocked. That engine is great for Highlander, Tacoma, Camry, Avalon, Sienna, but if they can't pull out a new engine for LEXUS' new corporate global midsize sedan, I will be surprised. In a bad way.

As much as I would love to see it to become like that, it will not happen. The current platform cannot support such demands. Which is why I keep saying they need to change platforms ASAP.

Gecko

If the ES debuts with the 2GR-FKS, I will be shocked. That engine is great for Highlander, Tacoma, Camry, Avalon, Sienna, but if they can't pull out a new engine for LEXUS' new corporate global midsize sedan, I will be surprised. In a bad way.

As much as I would love to see it to become like that, it will not happen. The current platform cannot support such demands. Which is why I keep saying they need to change platforms ASAP.