Rendered: The Next-Generation Lexus ES Sedan

Gecko

Not sure... GR V6 is due for a Dynamic Force replacement and Toyota and Lexus both need a new "workhorse" V6 with something like 300-350 horsepower. I am not sure if that would be NA, single turbo or twin turbo. The 3.5L TT V6 surely seems like overkill for this car. I would like to see them debut a 3.0L turbo V6 with ~325hp mated to the 10AT. Such an engine would be great in the ES, RX, GX, RC, GS and IS. I think we will also see a new Dynamic Force 2.0T, hopefully with something like 265-275hp and 290-300lb-ft of torque.

300+ horsepower seems like a bad idea in FWD, especially if it's turbo with high torque output as well... We always talk about this, but if ES is going to replace GS and there's going to be that much horsepower on tap, an AWD option will be necessary. Issue is that DTC AWD is not a great system for this type of application because it defaults to FWD and only engages AWD once there is a loss of traction. Essentially, you must have torque steer and traction loss before the system engages to become AWD... not ideal. I would really like to see Lexus come up with a new AWD system that has an active torque split between front and rear, as that would give them much more capability and greater flexibility with FWD platforms, similar to how Audi structures their cars.

An ES F Sport V6 would surely need to have AWD standard, but I assume you could get away without AWD on non-F Sport trims considering the audience. ~325hp AWD F Sport ES and RX would satisfy a market of buyers that Lexus is currently losing.

I think ES will receive a hybrid 4 cyl and not the new direct multi stage power plant. That seems to be a flagship powertrain for Lexus.

I agree with you one engine Lexus needs the most right now is a 3.0L turbo v6. That would be the perfect engine to replace the outdated 3.5 NA engine. I hope they are working on one. Especially with likes of Infiniti, BMW, Genesis, Mercedes, and even a KIA having such engines right now.

If anyone has really looked at the Camry, they really got proportions right and it looks rather Alfa ish in some angles. While the grill might be a turn off overall its pretty good looking. The ES should hopefully carry these things over to a cleaner and more luxurious look.

Also excited to see the new Avalon which debuts soon...

Gecko

Issue is that DTC AWD is not a great system for this type of application because it defaults to FWD and only engages AWD once there is a loss of traction. Essentially, you must have torque steer and traction loss before the system engages to become AWD... not ideal. I would really like to see Lexus come up with a new AWD system that has an active torque split between front and rear, as that would give them much more capability and greater flexibility with FWD platforms, similar to how Audi structures their cars.

If Ford can do it with the Fusion Sport/Taurus SHO, and Audi can do it with the RS3, there's no way Lexus can't do it. TMC has transverse-AWD rally cars with 380hp already, so AWD technology shouldn't be far from their reach.

According to a recent report from this Japanese tabloid site, the next-gen ES is set to make its debut in the Detroit Auto Show on 1/14/2018 and is indeed going to adopt the GA-L platform.
http://car-report.jp/blog-entry-1253.html

It's a good move IMHO. Selling a propped up mainstream car has helped Lexus get its footing on the ground but it's time for Lexus to transition into a truly premium car maker for further long-term growth, and by essentially renaming the GS to the more popular ES, and by hopefully re-introducing the next-gen GS as a four-door coupe, Lexus will finally have what it needs to compete with with the Germans on all levels.

ydooby

According to a recent report from this Japanese tabloid site, the next-gen ES is set to make its debut in the Detroit Auto Show on 1/14/2018 and is indeed going to adopt the GA-L platform.
http://car-report.jp/blog-entry-1253.html

It's a good move IMHO. Selling a propped up mainstream car has helped Lexus get its footing on the ground but it's time for Lexus to transition into a truly premium car maker for further long-term growth, and by essentially renaming the GS to the more popular ES, and by hopefully re-introducing the next-gen GS as a four-door coupe, Lexus will finally have what it needs to compete with with the Germans on all levels.

I read that article and it doesn't seem very reputable to me. Furthermore, we have seen the spy shots and the car is pretty clearly FWD looking at the proportions. A lot of these articles seem to throw "TNGA/TNGA-L" in together and not do a great job of clarifying what they are or how they differ.

January is knocking the doors and everything will be clear at NAIAS

With more and more rumors pointing towards a FAW/Lexus collaboration, I'm increasingly convinced an ES-L is needed. Currently the mid-size sedan line-up of Lexus China looks like this (considering IS as a 'compact sedan'):

ES200 ¥298k-318k/ES250 ¥348k-408k/ES300h ¥378k-498k/GS300 ¥459k-499k/GS300h ¥489k-599k/GS450h ¥799k (these are sticker prices, actual trade prices are usually much lower)

Lower end of the segment
Buick Lacrosse Avenir/Lincoln MKZ 2.0T/Cadillac XTS 2.0T/Volvo S90 T4
Price Range ¥279k-408k (~$40k-60k)

Higher end of the segment
Lincoln Continental/Volvo S90 T5/Jaguar XFL 2.0T/MB E260L/BMW 530iL/Audi A6L 2.0TFSI
Price Range ¥406k-498k ($60k-75k)

The 'executive segment'
Lincoln Continental President 3.0T/Jaguar XFL 3.0T/MB E320L/BMW 540iL/Audi A6L 3.0TFSI
Price Range ¥615k-698k ($90-105k)

Currently the 6ES does very well in the lower end due to ES200's competitive price and a generous discount (up to ¥50k) for the ES300h. ES250 is pretty weak since the hybrid usually trade at about the same price. The only problem is that the ES is imported and thus carries a 25% tariff; therefore these competitive prices come at the cost of profitability.
The GS is almost irrelevant against its LWB competitors with much more space and amenities. The sport-oriented GS is very poorly received because chinese buyers expect nothing but a comfortable ride.
Now with the GS gone, the ES-L is a must if Lexus wants to keep a presence in the higher end of the segment. I propose the following lineup for the ES/ES-L dual that spans the price range between ¥278k-648k, basically making the ES 'one sedan to rule them all'.

The ES SWB is targeted towards the lower end and is available with the 6AR-FSE/A25A-FKS/A25A-FXS hybrid drivetrain:
ES200 ¥278k-298k/ES250 ¥328k-378k/ES300h ¥368k-448k

The hybrid will generally be more expensive than the 250, but with more trim options. This should make the 300h vs 250 choice more interesting instead of the 300h being the no-brainer.

The ES-L is targeted towards the higher end and is available with A25A-FKS/Hybrid/8AR-FTS drivetrain:
ES250L ¥378k-428k/ES300L ¥448k-498k/ES300hL ¥458k-508k

Finally there could exist an executive trim ES-L with four seats and V6TT or V6 Hybrid; the drivetrain will be imported.
ES400L executive at ¥648k or ES450hL executive at ¥698k
Alternatively if Lexus really want to go aggressive they can offer a ES300L/300hL with executive trim. An ES400L also poses a big threat to its LS350 flagship.

MB/BMW also offer imported SWB E-class/5 series and market them as sport-oriented premium sedans. An ES300 F-Sport could fill that niche as well at ¥428k.

Having now seen the new Toyota Avalon believe that some work on the side of this rendering would benefit the overall design. Also agree with an earlier comment that the headlights need to be slightly slimmed down.
Why does the hood not meet cleanly with the top of the grille - i notice a number of cars now have this additional line here which i think is a distraction to the overall clean and sharp look.

Rob Grieveson

Having now seen the new Toyota Avalon believe that some work on the side of this rendering would benefit the overall design. Also agree with an earlier comment that the headlights need to be slightly slimmed down.
Why does the hood not meet cleanly with the top of the grille - i notice a number of cars now have this additional line here which i think is a distraction to the overall clean and sharp look.

As far as the line is concerned, I agree wish it were to the grille but it would be a longer and lower hood and I bet it might have to do with meeting the pedestrian impact requirements.

I keep hearing a ton of excitement from corporate and dealers about the ES...truly remarkable as I've never heard a whisper about the ES before. A big no brainer is coming.

It's almost certainly the new pedestrian impact requirements. Remember how early 70s cars looked awful because designers didn't know what to do with the 5 MPH bumper? I expect this'll eventually become invisible too.

mikeavelli

I keep hearing a ton of excitement from corporate and dealers about the ES...truly remarkable as I've never heard a whisper about the ES before. A big no brainer is coming.

How 'no brainer' do they expect it to be? Like recovering to pre-sedanapocalypse level of 60k per year?

More spy shots of the next ES (GS):
http://www.thedrive.com/new-cars/18697/2019-lexus-es-apparently-caught-testing-in-kentucky

Here are the photos from DDas' link.

So they are going with German small sausage - big sausage design philosophy. I hope it works for them but I don't think LS design scales down well just like how S-class design and proportions don't scale down well either.

I'm kind of disappointed they did very little to bring this new ES design up to GS resemblance if they are going to replace the GS with ES. I think they have an opportunity to make ES more upscale now that GS place as three box midsize sedan is vacant. They should have really tried to move on from that usual bubbly ES design they've introduced 3 generation ago into more lean cut 4GS kind of silhouette. This is just like how another ES would look like even if GS had remained in the lineup as is.

mediumhot

I'm kind of disappointed they did very little to bring this new ES design up to GS resemblance if they are going to replace the GS with ES.

I understand what you're saying, but imagine the reaction if you stepped into a time machine back to 1960 and told Ford execs they needed to make the Mustang look like an Edsel. I'm being excessively mean to the GS with this comparison, but sometimes cold business logic rules the day. Why would you ever want to associate a best-seller with a car that nobody's buying? (Unless the car nobody's buying is a limited edition like the LFA, of course).

Just saw the first GS-F today (that's how rare it is, I've seen more LC500s), and it blows my mind how stylish it looks. It's so hard to hate this car, but alas it doesn't sell. This is definitely a car that I will buy when I stop caring about chauffeuring clients in sofas on wheels.

Ian Schmidt

I understand what you're saying, but imagine the reaction if you stepped into a time machine back to 1960 and told Ford execs they needed to make the Mustang look like an Edsel. I'm being excessively mean to the GS with this comparison, but sometimes cold business logic rules the day. Why would you ever want to associate a best-seller with a car that nobody's buying? (Unless the car nobody's buying is a limited edition like the LFA, of course).

New ES will become a global player for the first time next year, it's completely different ball game now. I hope I'm wrong but from what I see they are carrying over US Camry/Avalon bubble sedan design of previous ES with new LS500 details. Camry never succeeded anywhere else but in North America and Russia. It still sells in few other markets such as Australia, China, some parts of Middle East and Japan but it's sales impact is marginal. Avalon only exists in North America if I'm not wrong. Both Camry and Avalon and Lexus ES have design philosophy of US first and it seems like it didn't change for new ES.

Anyway new A6 is debuting next month and it will be the closest competitor ES will have.

mediumhot

New ES will become a global player for the first time next year, it's completely different ball game now. I hope I'm wrong but from what I see they are carrying over US Camry/Avalon bubble sedan design of previous ES with new LS500 details. Camry never succeeded anywhere else but in North America and Russia. It still sells in few other markets such as Australia, China, some parts of Middle East and Japan but it's sales impact is marginal. Avalon only exists in North America if I'm not wrong. Both Camry and Avalon and Lexus ES have design philosophy of US first and it seems like it didn't change for new ES.

Anyway new A6 is debuting next month and it will be the closest competitor ES will have.

How would you want Camry to succeed everywhere? It is not supposed to - it is too large vehicle for Europe and Japan and way too expensive for South Asia, India or South America.

Dont let the assumptions fool you, Camry is #1 best selling midsized sedan in the world:
https://focus2move.com/world-best-selling-mid-size-cars/

It sold 300k outside USA.

Based on those spy shots, it looks like a Hyundai Sonata:



Also, looks like Lexus is working to surpass even the 4RX's front overhang. Impressive (not)! If you scroll through the images in the link, there's one that was left out and it's not looking good for proportions.

Gecko

Based on those spy shots, it looks like a Hyundai Sonata:



Also, looks like Lexus is working to surpass even the 4RX's front overhang. Impressive (not)! If you scroll through the images in the link, there's one that was left out and it's not looking good for proportions.

heh, lets realize that Sonata copied Lexus ES, even 2001 XV30 had wraparound rear lights, which were continued with XV40 and XV60.

As the overhang, so far all of the TNGA vehicles made it smaller.

Spy Shots: Next-Generation Lexus ES Shows Family Resemblance to LS Flagship

The similarities are uncanny.

View the original article post

It is not just a rumour anymore. Lexus dealers have already been told to prepare for GS skipping a generation in Europe while the new ES will replace it. My hope is that the ES will lift Lexus so much in Europe that GS will be re-introduced alongside it.

This article lines up with what a regional rep recently told our dealership about the upcoming ES. My original question to the rep was about the brand's plans for the GS, to which he responded by saying that once people drove the next gen ES, they would forget about the GS. Says the car is being developed to perform like a RWD vehicle.

He also says that the LF-1 will debut in 3 years time. He alluded to the company still having a plan for the GS though his response was extremely vague. I personally feel that they are going to reintroduce the GS as a 5 door performance crossover or the LF-1. The concept lines up almost flawlessly with what the GS was originally purposeed to be as a performance based flagship. Bumping the model up range and making it a crossover would give the GS it's own identity in the line-up. Either way these are very exciting times for the brand.

I don’t think it is a good idea to have ES’s design same to LS’s. This will cause similar problem to S class owners when people confused it with E and C class.

Not really enthused by the look of that front overhang, but excited to see the final model.

Craig Smith

.....once people drove the next gen ES, they would forget about the GS. Says the car is being developed to perform like a RWD vehicle.

He alluded to the company still having a plan for the GS though his response was extremely vague. I personally feel that they are going to reintroduce the GS .... making it a crossover would give the GS it's own identity in the line-up. Either way these are very exciting times for the brand.

This confirms my suspicions as well RE the ES possibly displacing the current GS and eventually ... something new in the GS line.

I'm very interested to find out whether there will be powertrain options in the new ES, for instance more HP for a higher performance trim, rather than simply a F-Sport trim that doesn't differ in performance.

Gecko

Not really enthused by the look of that front overhang, but excited to see the final model.

lets hope it ends up looking good... especially the interior.

heck lets hope it is a worldwide model, not just USA, Russia and China.

RIP the performance 4doors sedan GS

maiaramdan

RIP the performance 4doors sedan GS

You can always get a CLS or 6 series.