Toyota's electrification road map

[Joaquin Ruhi]

This WardsAuto article is a grab-bag of old news and some bits and statistics I hadn't seen anywhere else:

EVs Easing Into Toyota’s Mostly-Hybrid Portfolio
Toyota has mapped out an electrification plan that is not overly dependent on subsidies or creative accounting. By focusing on hybrids – gasoline cars that run in part on battery power – the automaker is sticking to a formula that has generated profits for more than a decade.
May 15, 2018 - Roger Schreffler | WardsAuto

TOYOTA CITY, Japan – The lines have been drawn. The world’s major automakers have set clear targets for electrifying their model lineups.

On one side are the Volkswagen Group, the Nissan-Renault-Mitsubishi Alliance and Chinese OEMs, all of which are putting emphasis on pure electrics.

On the other side is Toyota, which will continue to promote its hybrid technology through 2030 and beyond.

Toyota has mapped out an electrification plan that is not overly dependent on subsidies or creative accounting. By focusing on hybrids – gasoline cars that run in part on battery power – the automaker is sticking to a formula that has generated profits for more than a decade.

In 2017, Toyota sold a record 1.6 million units, both Toyota and Lexus brands. Hybrids accounted for 17% of global sales.

It is not clear when Toyota began making profits on standard hybrids, but most likely it was between 2005 and 2010. No other OEM can make that claim.

Since launching the Prius, the world’s first mass-produced hybrid, in December 1997, Toyota has sold 12 million units. At present, it offers 36 hybrids, of which 10 are Lexus models.

Also included in its lineup is the Prius Prime, the world’s best-selling plug-in hybrid in 2017.

What is new about Toyota’s plan is that the automaker has set numerical targets: 4.5 million units by 2030, more than 40% of projected global sales including both Toyota and Lexus brands.

By 2025, the automaker intends to offer a hybrid option in every model throughout its lineup, both Toyota and Lexus, and will begin selling an unspecified number of mild hybrids.

In the all-electric segment, Toyota, the only major OEM currently not selling a battery-only car, plans to introduce 10 models early in the next decade beginning in China, then Japan, India, the U.S. and Europe.

Toyota is expanding its partnerships in the electrification field and is working with Suzukiin India, Subaru and Mazda in Japan, and with BMW in Europe.

500,000 EVs in 2030 a Moving Sales Target
The automaker has not set a specific sales target for all-electric cars but probably will aim for more than 500,000 units in 2030. Toyota has committed to selling as many as 1 million all-electric and fuel-cell vehicles in the 2030 timeframe, meaning its electrified total (hybrids, EVs and fuel-cell vehicles) will approach 5.5 million – or more than half of global sales.

Toyota will raise or lower its all-electric target depending on how the market responds to the technology. And it will not limit sales to the Toyota brand.

The same holds for successors to the Mirai and other FCVs in the pipeline as the automaker currently considers marketing a fuel-cell-powered Lexus.

In December, Toyota announced it would separate its EV and FCV development efforts more clearly by focusing fuel-cell technology on larger vehicles, including buses and trucks, and its all-electric technology on compact cars.

At last month’s Beijing auto show, the automaker announced it would produce an all-electric SUV in 2020 based on the C-HR and Izoa models.

Also at the show, Toyota revealed plans to introduce plug-in versions of the Chinese-built Levin and Corolla hybrids in 2019.

Other highlights from WardsAuto interviews with Toyota management and industry analysts:

- Contrary to reports circulating last autumn, Toyota will not introduce a solid-state battery in a mass-production car early in the next decade. Safety issues must be resolved first. A more likely timeframe is 2030.

- The Prius Prime is close to being profitable in that the main additional cost is the car’s lithium-ion battery. The motor, generator and parts of the power-control unit are shared with the standard Prius. The new one-way clutch is available only in the Prime.

- Toyota estimates the Prime’s 8.8-kWh battery to be one-seventh as costly as a 50-kWh battery in all-electric cars and not much more than the nickel-metal-hydride battery in the standard Prius.

- Toyota has produced an estimated 24 million motors and 12 million inverters since launching the Prius and is currently in the fourth generation of both. This is six times more than its closest competitor, Honda, and almost certainly gives Toyota a huge scale advantage in future hybrids and most likely in EVs.

- While all current Toyota hybrids employ two motors, the automaker plans to introduce a one-motor hybrid by 2025. “We need low-priced hybrids in markets like India,” said Hisashi Nakai, director-technologies communication groups.

http://wardsauto.com/engines/evs-easing-toyota-s-mostly-hybrid-portfolio

 

[ssun30]

This is pretty much in line with what I read from a TMEC insider, with the exception of the "solid-state battery only available in 2030" part. That one is very dubious since it means TMC/Honda/Nissan/Panasonic missing their targets by as much as 8 years. Then again, from what I heard in the battery industry, the rush for new chemistries and architectures has indeed slowed due to a shift of focus to reducing cost and optimizing current technologies. As an example, Chinese OEMs will start producton of graphene-enhanced electrodes (which will increase capacity by 5-10%) within a year. Still, I woud say no major slip should push solid state beyond 2025. TMC is known for giving very conservative estimates.

The mild hybrid part is interesting to hear, I think this refers to the "one-motor hybrid" for developing economies. They are unlikely to introduce those for their major markets since full hybrids will reach cost parity with gasoline models in these regions by 2025. They could use Suzuki's technology as the latter has invested a considerable amount into it, so there's no need for TMC to develop mild hybrids itself.

The Prime's 8.8kWh Li-ion battery only costs marginally more than the NiMH? This could be a sign that next-gen Prius will be mostly plug-ins. The Prime is already over 40% of Prius sales, so it's the logical next step to make it the main Prius trim.

 

[Joaquin Ruhi]

Contrary to reports circulating last autumn, Toyota will not introduce a solid-state battery in a mass-production car early in the next decade. Safety issues must be resolved first. A more likely timeframe is 2030.

This is pretty much in line with what I read from a TMEC insider, with the exception of the "solid-state battery only available in 2030" part. That one is very dubious since it means TMC/Honda/Nissan/Panasonic missing their targets by as much as 8 years.

That was, indeed, what surprised me the most about that WardsAuto interview. Almost a week after that article appeared, WardsAuto's Roger Schreffler comes through with a follow-up of sorts: an interview with Shinzuo Abe, general manager of Toyota’s powertrain division. The last 2 questions and answers clarify what he meant:

Q: We were led to believe that Toyota will introduce solid-state batteries in the early 2020 period. Many observers do not believe that is possible and that a more realistic timeframe is 2030.

Abe: Yes, we did say we are starting this initiative and want to make solid-state batteries available in the early part of the 2020s decade. But in fact, that won’t be on a mass-production basis. We will begin with small-lot and trial production. We would never experiment on customers. Like you said, 2030 might be a more realistic timeframe.

Q: Some analysts feel that Toyota is hoping to leapfrog Chinese and South Korean battery makers – and by extension electric-car makers – with your solid-state technology. Is that how you see it?

A: We’re not doing this to surpass China or Korea. We believe that for EVs to gain wide market acceptance, we need epoch-making batteries like the ones we’ve been talking about. So we want to introduce these high-performance batteries as soon as possible. But we won’t be able to mass-produce them in the early 2020s.

And here's the rest of the interview, which includes Abe-san's commentary on some of the BEV numbers being bandied about:

Toyota: Solid-State Batteries Likely to Arrive in 2030
May 21, 2018 - Roger Schreffler | WardsAuto

TOYOTA CITY, Japan – Global OEMs are racing into vehicle electrification and particularly electric cars, but Toyota made a name for itself with groundbreaking hybrid-electric vehicles and will continue to prioritize them in the coming 10-plus years.

WardsAuto spoke with Shinzuo Abe, general manager of Toyota’s powertrain division, to better understand the automaker’s strategy for the future. Following are excerpts of the interview:

Q: In the context of Toyota’s 2025 and 2030 electrified vehicle forecasts, which markets offer the greatest potential?

Abe: Japan and Europe will continue to grow their hybrid ratios faster than other markets. We also believe that North America, in the context of meeting (2025) CO2 regulations, is promising.

Q: But won’t Europe move more toward full electric?

Abe: We believe that hybrids will come ahead of full electrics. We also realize that some European OEMs are jumping into pure EVs from diesels and bypassing hybrids.

Q: Can you use existing hybrid powertrain components – motors, inverters, gasoline engines and transmissions – for Toyota plug-in hybrids?

Abe: Yes.

Q: Forty-one percent of Toyota and Lexus sales in Europe in 2017 were hybrids, of which nearly 185,000 were produced at Toyota Motor Mfg. France and Toyota Motor Mfg. U.K. If needed, could you convert most of your European hybrid products to plug-in hybrids?

Abe: It’s possible. But we believe that our biggest weapon for meeting fuel-efficiency and CO2 regulations, not just in Europe but globally, will continue to be (standard) hybrids.

We expect sales of hybrids, standard hybrids that is, to grow to 4 million units in 2030 out of 10 million units in total. On top of that, we expect to sell several hundred thousand plug-in hybrids and several hundred thousand EVs.

Q: Switching to pure EVs, what is the biggest problem moving forward?

Abe: For me personally, it is the battery including cost, size, weight and deterioration characteristics.

Q: That’s lithium-ion batteries?

Abe: Yes. The second problem is charging. We need to make it possible for users to charge their cars with no inconvenience.

Q: Could you go through the battery cost numbers, then, for an EV with a 400-km or 250-mile range?

Abe: For an EV to have a cruising distance of 400 km (250 miles), it would probably need a 40-50 kWh battery depending on the size and weight of the car. For a compact car like the Prius, 40 kWh is probably enough.

For the sake of this discussion, if batteries cost ¥20/wH ($0.18/Whr), multiply that by 40,000 or 50,000 times and you get ¥800,000 or ¥1 million ($7,338 or $9,173). If the battery is ¥30/wH ($0.28), then the cost would increase to ¥1.2 million or ¥1.5 million ($9,173 or $13,760).

If we expect costs to fall by half in 2025, which is a difficult target, it won’t necessarily lead to volume sales of pure-electric cars. It is not so simple as the cost of batteries coming down. The cars themselves must appeal to consumers.

Q: So are the cost targets often discussed by analysts and the media of $125/kWh accurate?

Abe: To be honest, I don’t know what those numbers mean. It’s hard for me to say whether they report manufacturing cost or (sales) price. It seems to me that battery manufacturers are pushing automakers hard to do business.

Q: Do you have concerns that there hasn’t been sufficient time to validate each new iteration of battery electrochemistry?

Abe: We are a car manufacturer, so we have to avoid anything that might constitute a safety risk. Batteries, in the worst-case scenario, cause fire. So we need to test them thoroughly, around the world, and both as a single unit and in the vehicle.

http://wardsauto.com/alternative-evs-hevs-fcvs/toyota-solid-state-batteries-likely-arrive-2030

 

[ssun30]

Hmm, with this confirmation it could mean either of the two things:
>>Toyota is screwed, if BMW/VW hit their target for solid state production in first half of 2020s, and if Tesla survived to introduce Li-S in mid 2020s.
>>The entire industry is screwed. If the world's biggest investor in SSB is hitting a major barrier, nobody else could fare much better. Without SSB/new electrochemistry enabling a doubling of energy density, there is zero chance of BEV reaching cost parity with PHV let alone HV and ICEV. No mass-producible SSB in the first half of 2020s is a very bad thing for the financial situation of BEV manufacturers.

It seems that even I, as an EV pessimist, am too optimistic about EVs. The news about Toyota and BMW racing to SSBs certainly caused a lot of hype and made me believe that cost parity between BEV and HV is reachable by 2025.

Last December I attended an alternative energy vehicle conference in Shenzhen. During one of the seminars an esteemed professor (who led the construction of China's charging networks) said EV manufacturers will not make profit for the next decade, a comment that instantly got booed upon. Later I read an International Alternative Energy Policy Council's report which also predicted cost parity in 2030s.

My business is a Tier 3 supplier to EV manufacturers, which is why I talk a lot about EVs/HVs on this forum. But that is not sufficient to see the bigger picture. It seems I'm just scraping the surface of the industry. Not that I am complaining, because learning something new is always a good thing.

 

[Levi]

What it tells me is that Tesla is struggling for survival. But others even more. Leaders (Germans) are screwed having to fight on all fronts: volume, tech status leadership, autonomous cars, electrification, service. Reminds me 1945.

 

[ssun30]

What it tells me is that Tesla is struggling for survival. But others even more. Leaders (Germans) are screwed having to fight on all fronts: volume, tech status leadership, autonomous cars, electrification, service. Reminds me 1945.

Well VW just spent $25B on batteries and is targeting 3 million EVs in 2025. I'd say they have some ambitious targets.

Then again, 1945 was when Wunderwaffe became a big thing...

 

[spwolf]

Well VW just spent $25B on batteries and is targeting 3 million EVs in 2025. I'd say they have some ambitious targets.

Then again, 1945 was when Wunderwaffe became a big thing...

Who knows what they spent and what they PRd. For instance nobody is building battery factory in Europe ... That tells you a lot about germans believing those targets.

In the meantime they are advertising in germany how diesels won't die, and guaranteeing replacement vehicles if they do ... That also tells you about what they believe in.

 

[CIF]

Overall not huge news, but lots of very important little details, thanks for the article!

- Toyota is the world's best seller of electrified vehicles (hybrids) and has been for a long time. Tesla, BYD or any other competitors have nothing on this.
- Toyota makes a profit on its regular hybrid vehicles (known for a long time).
- By 2025, every single Toyota and Lexus model should have a hybrid option. This means body-on-frame vehicles will be getting hybrid options, big news here.
- Toyota smartly and conservatively not buying the hype about all-electric vehicles. I agree with Toyota here in that all-electric vehicles still have some very significant real-world drawbacks, which hybrids do not.
- Also not mentioned in the article, but I would like to point out Toyota has tremendous experience on the Hino side with commercial vehicle heavy duty hybrid systems. This includes the diesel hybrid Hino truck systems as well as hydrogen fuel cell hybrid commercial systems (fuel cell Hino hybrid buses).

 

[spwolf]

Overall not huge news, but lots of very important little details, thanks for the article!

- Toyota is the world's best seller of electrified vehicles (hybrids) and has been for a long time. Tesla, BYD or any other competitors have nothing on this.
- Toyota makes a profit on its regular hybrid vehicles (known for a long time).
- By 2025, every single Toyota and Lexus model should have a hybrid option. This means body-on-frame vehicles will be getting hybrid options, big news here.
- Toyota smartly and conservatively not buying the hype about all-electric vehicles. I agree with Toyota here in that all-electric vehicles still have some very significant real-world drawbacks, which hybrids do not.
- Also not mentioned in the article, but I would like to point out Toyota has tremendous experience on the Hino side with commercial vehicle heavy duty hybrid systems. This includes the diesel hybrid Hino truck systems as well as hydrogen fuel cell hybrid commercial systems (fuel cell Hino hybrid buses).

I actually like the idea that they will have 10 EV's in 2020 for sale. Then customers will decide on their own if they want to buy them or not.

This is correct choice and made by Akio... I dont think engineers wanted to do it but they have to be ready because legislative changes in many markets, like China and Europe, might make them mandatory... and if not ready, they can lose significant part of the market.

 

[CIF]

I actually like the idea that they will have 10 EV's in 2020 for sale. Then customers will decide on their own if they want to buy them or not.

This is correct choice and made by Akiro... I dont think engineers wanted to do it but they have to be ready because legislative changes in many markets, like China and Europe, might make them mandatory... and if not ready, they can lose significant part of the market.

I agree. My point was that Toyota is conservatively entering the EV market. For the very small number of buyers that want one, Toyota will have some models available in the coming years. However they are not fully buying the hype and jumping all in on EVs like many of Toyota's competitors are. If any legislative changes make them mandatory in any markets, yes Toyota will be ready.

 

[spwolf]

I agree. My point was that Toyota is conservatively entering the EV market. For the very small number of buyers that want one, Toyota will have some models available in the coming years. However they are not fully buying the hype and jumping all in on EVs like many of Toyota's competitors are. If any legislative changes make them mandatory in any markets, yes Toyota will be ready.

Well i dont think they are doing it conservatively at all... they did before, but I think Toyoda made a call 2-3 years back to greatly expand on this. This is why EV and FCEV development was completely separated, because engineers did not believe in EV.

Sometimes it is hard to understand for engineer that there is politics in play and that some tax change that can happen in a single year will leave them losing 20-30% of the market, fast, and at that point they will need 3 years to respond.

But with 10 ev's in 2020, and them building an EV in USA too, it is coming, be sure of that. They will have a mightly lineup of real vehicles, now the question here is how much will they sell.

 

[CIF]

Well respectfully, I will disagree. Compared to some competitors, Toyota is still being quite conservative with EV investment. Overall you could say Toyota's EV investment is now not that small. However I am comparing this to competitors. Look at Ford for example; they are going all-in on EV and Ford has implied that they want an EV version of every vehicle in the future. Also look at VW's absolutely massive EV investment, and the investment of other German competitors like Porsche, who are dedicating massive resources to EV development. Toyota wants a hybrid version of every vehicle of theirs in the future, not an EV version of every vehicle. EVs will not be Toyota's main electrification strategy in the short-to-medium term future. Numerous Toyota executives have stated this. Also several Toyota experts have commented that they believe EVs will still continue to have major real world drawbacks even into the 2030s they believe.

Toyota's EV models will first debut in China and a few other overseas markets. As Jim Lentz recently said, they will then gradually expand EV availability to other markets. If there is enough demand, this will include North America. Currently Toyota does not see enough demand in North America to be offering pure EV models. Besides, this is not new territory for Toyota anyways. Many years ago Toyota offered limited sales of the Rav4 EV in the US.

So again, compared to various competitors, this is a conservative strategy.

 

[spwolf]

Well respectfully, I will disagree. Compared to some competitors, Toyota is still being quite conservative with EV investment. Overall you could say Toyota's EV investment is now not that small. However I am comparing this to competitors. Look at Ford for example; they are going all-in on EV and Ford has implied that they want an EV version of every vehicle in the future. Also look at VW's absolutely massive EV investment, and the investment of other German competitors like Porsche, who are dedicating massive resources to EV development. Toyota wants a hybrid version of every vehicle of theirs in the future, not an EV version of every vehicle. EVs will not be Toyota's main electrification strategy in the short-to-medium term future. Numerous Toyota executives have stated this. Also several Toyota experts have commented that they believe EVs will still continue to have major real world drawbacks even into the 2030s they believe.

Toyota's EV models will first debut in China and a few other overseas markets. As Jim Lentz recently said, they will then gradually expand EV availability to other markets. If there is enough demand, this will include North America. Currently Toyota does not see enough demand in North America to be offering pure EV models. Besides, this is not new territory for Toyota anyways. Many years ago Toyota offered limited sales of the Rav4 EV in the US.

So again, compared to various competitors, this is a conservative strategy.

I am pretty sure that Toyota will have more EVs than Ford at any point of time... they will just chose not to lose money on them unless they have to.
Ford will also not lose money on EVs, they will not have EVs if it doesnt make sense.

Heck, none of these companies will sell EVs if they are losing money on them. Forget about their PRs for investors - Ford for instance has quit on their hybrids because they could not make money on them, and they had decent system, they were just losing money. So in 2 years from now, Ford will also not sell 10 EVs everywhere if they lose money on them.

Toyota-Mazda factory will in fact produce EV in NA in 2021, and there were reports since 2016 that Toyota has been surveying their part suppliers about parts needed for EV to be produced in NA.

Quite possibly this could be another EV, based on some car produced in NA, for instance Rav4 would make a lot of sense.

 

[ssun30]

Toyota's biggest problem right now is that they couldn't choose a battery supplier for those 10 EVs. Chinese policy mandates foreign automakers to source batteries from local OEMs or face an import tax penalty (with the exception of Tesla, that is part of the incentive package offered to Elon). That is carrot and stick at play.

So while their biggest partner in EV is Panasonic, they couldn't put Panasonic batteries into their chinese market EVs. This means they will not gain any technological or cost advantage over competitors. In fact everyone is on a level playing field here. It is a very protectionist policy that ensures indigenous automakers won't fall behind.

I think that's also part of the reason why Toyota is not overly enthusiastic in these 10 models. Yes, 10 is a lot, but they won't put nearly as much effort compared to what they will spend on, say, the next-gen Prius or Mirai.

 

[spwolf]

Toyota's biggest problem right now is that they couldn't choose a battery supplier for those 10 EVs. Chinese policy mandates foreign automakers to source batteries from local OEMs or face an import tax penalty (with the exception of Tesla, that is part of the incentive package offered to Elon). That is carrot and stick at play.

So while their biggest partner in EV is Panasonic, they couldn't put Panasonic batteries into their chinese market EVs. This means they will not gain any technological or cost advantage over competitors. In fact everyone is on a level playing field here. It is a very protectionist policy that ensures indigenous automakers won't fall behind.

I think that's also part of the reason why Toyota is not overly enthusiastic in these 10 models. Yes, 10 is a lot, but they won't put nearly as much effort compared to what they will spend on, say, the next-gen Prius or Mirai.

I think main problem is that right now they dont have any EVs

I am not so sure that next Prius wont be primarily plugin hybrid or EV, seems like its sales are going there right now. I also think that next gen Mirai wont be getting that much effort, it might be relative to next gen EV from Toyota. In their latest docs they have referred to FCVs as better for larger vehicles, trucks, busses, that is certainly significant change of tune.

As you say, if battery is not differentiator in China, you still have all the other parts of the vehicle, just like you have now Camry 2.0l vs Passat whatever, battery is only a part of that equation.

 

[CIF]

A bit off-topic, but I feel something I should mention.

A senior official at GM recently stated that he doesn't believe pure EVs will be an endgame for the auto industry. He said he thinks that plug-in hybrids are the better long-term option. He made the remark in reference to the many great difficulties surrounding the idea or possibility of making ultra-fast EV chargers (chargers far faster and more powerful than Tesla's superchargers) widespread in the future.

Toyota's long-term vision so far is the same thing. Pure EVs are not an endgame or dominant technology at all for Toyota long-term. There is lots of strong evidence from Toyota that in the very long-term future, Toyota sees plug-in hybrids as still the best option as an EV-centric technology. That gives you the best qualities of regular gas-electric hybrids, gas only vehicles, and pure EVs. Not to mention regular hybrids are still a huge part of Toyota's long-term plans, as are regular gas only vehicles.

Gas only vehicles will still be a very strong force going into the long term future.

 

[Levi]

When we look at how finance and marketing and engineering relate, a lot gets very irrational and many vested interest are competing against each other within what is assumed to be fixed variable. But that is where unexpected changes have huge impact. The main issue here, not taking into account the function of mobility - that is autonomous vehicles, public transport, etc. -, is energy. Energy has three main implications that all interrelate depending on their input and output forms:

• where does it come from and how is it produced and what form does it have?
• what form does it have and how is stored and transported?
• what is the from transformed from/to and how it is used?

Today we have many types of forms and ways of transformation, why do we expect the future to be different? And if their will be the holy grail of energy, why do we expect it to be a break-through of only one transformation/form? The breakthrough would rather be something completely different or combination of more.

For example cars could very well batteries that are light, do not degrade, and have high charge/discharge rate, the the stations at which they charge could store energy in a different from locally, and not draw it from the grid. Or yet, car batteries could be different: instead of charging them with electrical current to regenerate the original chemical reactants, the batteries could be charged with chemical reactants.

The future could very well be batteries & hydrogen, in the form of solid state hydrogen. There is a much higher likely hood of such a breakthrough, than than any of the current forms being dominant.

 

[ssun30]

The future could very well be batteries & hydrogen, in the form of solid state hydrogen. There is a much higher likely hood of such a breakthrough, than than any of the current forms being dominant.

That is a very bold statement. The answer to the holy grail of electric transportation is "I don't know" if you ask any expert in the industry or academia. Solid state storage of hyrdogen is not even in its infancy at this point.

What they can agree is that chemical batteries and fuel cells will co-exist, since by nature batteries are not suited to heavy vehicles. Tesla is making a very risky business decision by making the Semi instead of focusing on its passenger vehicle programs.

 

[ssun30]

I am currently working on a translation project on the issue of Japan's EV future (which centers around Toyota Group, of course). I read and speak very limited japanese so I have to rely a lot on Kanji and translation software; this would take some time.

Just a little spoiler: Toyota is testing a solid state battery car at its Fuji test facility as we speak.

 

[Levi]

I am currently working on a translation project on the issue of Japan's EV future (which centers around Toyota Group, of course). I read and speak very limited japanese so I have to rely a lot on Kanji and translation software; this would take some time.

Just a little spoiler: Toyota is testing a solid state battery car at its Fuji test facility as we speak.

How is the translation going on? :sweat: