Toyota To Offer Several Powertrains In Future, Won’t Focus On EVs

[Sulu]

There are 2 related items here.

Toyota To Offer Several Powertrains In Future, Won’t Focus On EVs

Toyota won’t be focusing solely on electric vehicles anytime soon as the automaker plans to offer various powertrains types in the coming years.

www.motor1.com

The first is news from Toyota's annual shareholders meeting during which Toyota discussed its hesitancy to completely abandon the petroleum-fueled internal combustion engine in favour of electric vehicles, as a number of large automakers are doing. One reason given, which I can fully understand and agree with, is that Toyota is concerned that the whole-lifecycle carbon emissions -- which considers the emissions from sourcing and manufacturing of all components of the vehicle, including low- and high-voltage batteries -- of EVs may be higher than for ICE-powered vehicles.

Toyota’s reluctance to focus solely on EVs isn’t only about the uncertainty in the nascent market as there are environmental concerns, too. According to Automotive News, which was privy to the annual shareholder meeting where Toyota discussed its hesitancy to go all-in on EVs, Toyota is looking at the “whole lifecycle” of a vehicle in regards to reducing carbon emissions as there are some studies that indicate producing EVs and their batteries release more emissions than those from tailpipes.

The other reason that Toyota is not rushing in to EVs is the (current) low demand for EVs, especially in North America. I do not fully agree with this. A good product company does not and should not always follow demand from buyers; there are times when it may be prudent to lead -- supply the new, different product and demand will follow. Apple has consistently done that with its innovative products and Toyota did it themselves with the first hybrid-electric car, the Prius.

However, a more significant driver in determining what Toyota does is the consumer. Toyota Chief Technology Officer Masahiko Maeda said, “In the end what matters is what customers choose.” In the US, EVs account for less than two percent of the total automotive market. That’s a small slice of pie for automakers to be fighting over. Toyota’s lineup will contain a variety of powertrain options for the next 30 years, offering gasoline, hybrid, fuel-cell vehicles, and electric vehicles as the propulsion options compete for superiority to leave the best ones standing.

Only VW, Volvo are doing enough to electrify in Europe, study says - Autoblog

Among major carmakers, Volkswagen and Volvo are doing enough to electrify their vehicle lineups in Europe, and the EU needs to set tougher CO2 emission limi

www.autoblog.com

The second item is related to the first. In a study by the climate group Transport and Environment (T&E) in the European Union, it gives credit only to Volvo and Volkswagen for doing enough to electrify (and I interpret that this means giving up ICE-powered vehicles and switching to EVs). According to the report, Ford has an ambitious target (plan to go all-electric by 2030) but lack a robust plan about how to meet that target.

Volkswagen aims to have 55% group-wide BEV sales in Europe by 2030, while Swedish carmaker Volvo, owned by China's Geely says its lineup will be fully electric by then.

Based on IHS Markit car production forecasts, according to the study from European campaign group Transport and Environment (T&E), Volkswagen and Volvo have "aggressive and credible strategies" to shift from fossil-fuel cars to electric vehicles.

Others like Ford Motor Co have set ambitious targets, "but lack a robust plan to get there," T&E said.

Ford plans an all-electric lineup in Europe by 2030.

Other automakers, including Toyota, have no ambitious phase-out targets for ICEVs and rely too much on hybrid vehicles.

T&E said BMW, Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), Daimler AG and Toyota rank the worst as they have low BEV sales, have "no ambitious phase-out targets, no clear industrial strategy, and an over-reliance in the case of BMW, Daimler and Toyota on hybrids."

 

[F1 Silver Arrows]

LMAO these lobbyists can screw off with their authoritarian agenda. You guys already know what I think of if you saw one of my other responses in this forum regarding these people. We want choice.

I'm so sick of these people trying to ram their stuff down our throats. I know BMW is failing in terms of design right now but I appreciate them because like Toyota, they are both embracing ICE's for many years to come. They KNOW it's unreasonable to go full EV as so many people worldwide simply can't and do not want to warm up to them.

I vote with my dollars and inadvertently tell these guys to go to hell.

 

[spwolf]

I think in the end, VW did really well with their choice.

In 12 months, VW will be EV leader, and will be able to increase their worldwide sales due to that.
Markets where EVs do not sell well are not their main markets - in their main markets - Europe and China, there are legislations pushing EV sales.

Problem that Toyota has is that in their major markets, they are mostly fine without EVs. USA? Japan? South America? South Asia? Australia? Arab world, Africa - all are countries where petrol and hybrids are going to be OK for next 10 years. Also all of the markets sell a lot of SUVs for Toyota where EV solution is not so great. Toyota just told us they sell >300,000 of LC200 per year, that is a lot of their profits. It would be really hard to have LC EV that makes a lot of sense right now.

And for Europe, China they can introduce plugins and few EVs.

However they are right where their sales in 2025 will still be based on petrol engine being in the mix.

Here is their problem - by 2025, VW group will be doing 2-3 million EVs per year or more, they will offer 30 different EVs and they will have efficiencies of scales and advanced solutions that Toyota wont have, because they are still spreading their R&D into several technologies.

And by doing that, VW can finally have good sales in markets they suck in - such as North America, because they will offer many different EV solutions.

I can see in Europe, things are moving really fast. In most Western European countries, plugins will have >10% market share this year, and that is from <1% last year. In many large countries diesel is under plugin share, where diesels had >50% share just 2 years ago.

Things are moving way, way faster than anyone has predicted and it should be Tesla, but also VW group doing really good with it.

 

[F1 Silver Arrows]

I think in the end, VW did really well with their choice.

In 12 months, VW will be EV leader, and will be able to increase their worldwide sales due to that.
Markets where EVs do not sell well are not their main markets - in their main markets - Europe and China, there are legislations pushing EV sales.

Problem that Toyota has is that in their major markets, they are mostly fine without EVs. USA? Japan? South America? South Asia? Australia? Arab world, Africa - all are countries where petrol and hybrids are going to be OK for next 10 years. Also all of the markets sella lot of SUVs for Toyota where EV solution is not so great. Toyota just told us they sell >300,000 of LC200 per year, that is a lot of their profits. It would be really hard to have LC EV that makes a lot of sense right now.

And for Europe, China they can introduce plugins and few EVs.

However they are right where their sales in 2025 will still be based on petrol engine being in the mix.

Here is their problem - by 2025, VW group will be doing 2-3 million EVs per year or more, they will offer 30 different EVs and they will have efficiencies of scales and advanced solutions that Toyota wont have, because they are still spreading their R&D into several technologies.

And by doing that, VW can finally have good sales in markets they suck in - such as North America, because they will offer many different EV solutions.

I can see in Europe, things are moving really fast. In most Western European countries, plugins will have >10% market share this year, and that is from <1% last year. In many large countries diesel is under plugin share, where diesels had >50% share just 2 years ago.

Things are moving way, way faster than anyone has predicted and it should be Tesla, but also VW group doing really good with it.

The thing with that is even with offering a lot of EV's, VW still won't be able to overshadow Toyota in any market bar Europe. This could be down to Toyota's sheer popularity worldwide, but I also believe that their products are just more approachable for the average customer. Toyota has the advantage in the market because they can release a product, be it an EV, ICEV, HEV, PHEV, HEV, etc., and if it happens to fail, they can fall back on their other vehicles.

There could be a disadvantage of not diversifying your lineup. If you're a company (let's just say for the sake of this example, VW) where your sales aren't that strong in other markets other than your home market and you produce a line of uncompetitive EV's (the ID4 is not looking too impressive lately), then they won't have the luxury that Toyota has to fall back on their other vehicles to soften the blow of having an uncompetitive product. I know they currently have non-EV's to rely on in terms of sales but my point is that VW is adamant on fully transitioning into an EV brand in the future.

I think once people realize that there is more to a company just adopting EV powertrains and seeing there are so many other elements to what makes up the fundamentals of a car, they'll move towards brands like Toyota who understands that reliability is king, or BMW that mastered the art of interior ergonomics.

Tesla at the moment are the only manufacturer (if you could even call them that), that is really successful at what they're doing with their specialized line of EV's, and you could credit that to having really great electric motors that provide a lot of range. However, the realist in me also says that the only reason why they're surviving are because of subsidies from the government of California and people buying their cars because that's what is trendy at the moment.

Tesla will ultimately face their day of reckoning as they opened a Pandora's box of automotive production, which is their attitude that cars are disposable products like phones, and once people realize that other OEM's will be doing a better job even in the EV market, then it just renders Tesla irrelevant. They're losing customers and as time passes they're getting exposed for their disgusting levels of cost cutting, and just being reckless in their lack of quality control.

To address your last point, this level of acceleration has never been seen before as automotive trends tend to be more gradual than sudden. So I'm genuinely perplexed as to how the market has shifted THAT quickly in the span of 2 years. Something doesn't add up.

 

[spwolf]

VW is very close to Toyota in yearly sales, it was difference in 100k units or so in 2020.
Markets where Toyota is better are Japan and USA, as well as Asian countries. Rest of VW world.

Both ID3 and ID4 are doing well in their markets. Audi has a ton of EVs, and Porsche is coming out with more and more. Skoda is getting some competitive ones too.

In 3-4 years, VW will have EV tech that they put tens of billions of R&D into and production well over 3m units per year. They will be very hard to reach.

And the driver is going to be Europe, with incentive plans. Japan, Korea and USA better wake up.

 

[Will1991]

@F1 Silver Arrows , I kindly ask you to edit your first two sentences, we're in a public forum and, in my view, there is no need...

I believe T&E missed a important aspect... Toyota is currently building that ZEV factory, that should be ready latter this year...

@spwolf , VW has an extra incentive, they have a really bad CO2 average, they even paid some fines while selling thousands ID3’s...

I don’t want to talk down what they’re doing, and that Enyaq is coming at an amazing price, but I think it’s that extra incentive talking…

It’s not easy to talk about BEV’s and don’t talk about the environment, and I had this argument with a friend the other day:
Which company does better for the environment in Europe? VW that pay fines for high CO2 average or Toyota that sells a lot of hybrid and doesn’t pay any fine?

But I do agree, Toyota is coming a bit late to the BEV game, specially considering what they did with the Prius…
Toyota keeps saying it wants to give choice to costumers, but, the only BEV they’re offering in Europe is a technically inferior and overpriced UX300e… 50kW DC charging, low real world range in a MY2021 car at that price point shouldn’t have happened…

 

[F1 Silver Arrows]

VW is very close to Toyota in yearly sales, it was difference in 100k units or so in 2020.
Markets where Toyota is better are Japan and USA, as well as Asian countries. Rest of VW world.

You can also throw in the Canadian, Australian, Middle Eastern, and Russian market too. But your notion of the rest of the world is only just Europe AFAIK.

I am not sure if Latin American and South American markets are either a Toyota or a VW stronghold.

But I do agree, Toyota is coming a bit late to the BEV game, specially considering what they did with the Prius…
Toyota keeps saying it wants to give choice to costumers, but, the only BEV they’re offering in Europe is a technically inferior and overpriced UX300e… 50kW DC charging, low real world range in a MY2021 car at that price point shouldn’t have happened…

And yet... it's the best iteration of the UX. Just sayin'.

 

[Will1991]

And yet... it's the best iteration of the UX. Just sayin'.

About 3 weeks ago I had the opportunity to test drive one here in Portugal and keep in mind, I’ve always struggled a bit with the UX but yes, I agree with you!

On the move it’s amazing how silent it is, how comfortable it is, how well it soaks up road imperfections, it’s well balanced, it has an adequate power delivery and it the solve the worst thing on the UX250h (boot space).

But… It doesn’t do 200km at 120km/h, charges quite slow and the rear space is less comfortable… If it was launched 3 years ago, it would be amazing, but now the competition is on another level with the cheaper EQA250, cheaper Q4 etron and soon to be iX1…

 

[ssun30]

Here is their problem - by 2025, VW group will be doing 2-3 million EVs per year or more, they will offer 30 different EVs and they will have efficiencies of scales and advanced solutions that Toyota wont have, because they are still spreading their R&D into several technologies.

Bold for you to assume the world's supply chain could sustain 3M EVs per year by 2025.

One of the biggest mistakes people often make is assuming an emerging technology could maintain its exponential growth in its early stages. The truth is they couldn't even scale linearly.

I never doubt we should phase out ICEVs in favor of electrified wherever possible. But I don't agree with the rushed timeline proposed by politicians and automakers alike. The original '30 by 30' (30% BEVmarket share in developed countries by 2030) is already ambitious but now it becomes '90 by 25'? It makes good PR but does not consider the full picture.

The whole world will face the reckoning in 2030 when the first batch of wind farms and solar farms need to be decommissioned, and when the first mass market EVs need to be disposed. Mark my words: the world will have a completely different conversation on renewables by then compared to today.

A very interesting phenomenon is that opinions on the future of clean energy is much more diversified in the academia. These people are pushing the frontier of technology yet they are cautiously optimistic about EVs. Yet we basically only hear one voice in mainstream discussions: EVs and renewables are the solutions to all our worries. Why? Because these are popular opinions with the public. Politicians only say things people want to hear.

 

[spwolf]

Bold for you to assume the world's supply chain could sustain 3M EVs per year by 2025.

One of the biggest mistakes people often make is assuming an emerging technology could maintain its exponential growth in its early stages. The truth is they couldn't even scale linearly.

I am just a spectator.

My personal opinion before was that it would take years for plugins (BEV+PHEV) to become really popular in Europe.
One year later (!!!), plugins are now 15% of German car market. Diesels are 11%.

15% is mainstream now. And that is just ID3 and little bit of ID4. Skoda, Hyundai/KIA/MB/Tesla and dozens of other models are just coming out. Germany will go higher than 15% this year. It is crazy pants numbers in country that was very sceptic of plugin technology.

Additionally, EU has been paying for e-charger buildup for past 3 years. They are speeding it up now. Even here in Eastern Europe where there are no many plugins at all, there are many EV stations.

They are ready for EV revolution.

 

[ssun30]

^^ If you meant 3M EVs include PHV and BEV, then that's about right. 3M BEVs? No way.

PHVs will be the dominant form of electrification from 2025 to 2035 and there isn't much disagreement on that in academia either.

My only problem with Toyota's electrification strategy is not their timeline, but their pricing strategy. They are not willing to accept a lower margin for higher volume while everyone else is trying to price each other out of the market.

 

[spwolf]

^^ If you meant 3M EVs include PHV and BEV, then that's about right. 3M BEVs? No way.

PHVs will be the dominant form of electrification from 2025 to 2035 and there isn't much disagreement on that in academia either.

My only problem with Toyota's electrification strategy is not their timeline, but their pricing strategy. They are not willing to accept a lower margin for higher volume while everyone else is trying to price each other out of the market.

i mean both, but there is no huge difference in Europe, here is 1st quarter report:

What is more revealing in terms of the overall trend is the comparison with the first quarter of 2020, and with previous years. BEV sales were up by 80% compared to Q1 2020, and PHEVs by 184%. The respective market shares were 6.7% and 7.4% respectively, compared to 3.8% and 2.6% in Q1 2020, and 1.2% and 0.8% in Q1 2019 - strong proof of continued, accelerating growth.

Germany is leading the way among the top 5 markets, with a BEV market share of 9.9% in the first quarter, up from merely 1.8% two years ago in Q1 2019. The United Kingdom (7.5%) and France (6.9%) come next. Given their size and high revenue per vehicle, these markets are playing a vital role in the transition of the global automotive industry towards electric vehicles.

BEV is 10% in Germany already, that is only with ID3 and Tesla Model 3 (+ Audi, Porsche)

 

[Levi]

(BEV+PHEV)

counting PHEVs and BEVs together makes no sense whatsoever. PHEVs are ICEVs in first place. BEVs are from ground up a whole different thing, also in terms of use. if the listen to european politicians, PHEVs are already obsolete if they will be banned in ZEZs (zero-emission zones).

 

[Levi]

BEV is 10% in Germany already, that is only with ID3 and Tesla Model 3 (+ Audi, Porsche)

10% of new registrations. how many percent among all cars driving on german roads?

how many buy used BEVs?

you a looking at incomplete numbers. i am not saying you are wrong, just saying I need more numbers backing up your/their (BEV cultists) numbers.

 

[Will1991]

@Levi , they're different technologies but usually counted together for sales numbers.

I agree with you, and for company cars they (sadly) work as hybrids most of the time, but @spwolf took into consideration two technologies which is considerable better (and fair) than what we usually see in the web, where most of the sites count them together as one.

As for the used car market, it’s only a matter of a couple of years… Diesel sales in Europe are free falling, 2~3 years and it will reflect on the secondhand market.

 

[Sulu]

Did VW get where it is with EVs as a true good-for-the-environment vision or did it get there in an attempt to make good on the bad-for-environment and bad-for-corporate-ethics problem that Dieselgate made visible?

And on the opposite side of this coin, because Toyota has not had a similar major corporate crisis, I believe that Toyota continues to be resting on its laurels. At one time -- 2 decades and more ago -- Toyota was quite innovative. It developed the Toyota Hybrid System and Prius, the first modern production hybrid vehicle. It also developed the hands-free autonomous parallel parking system. But in the last decade-and-a-half, it seems to have slowed down and become terribly and overly cautious. What happened?

 

[Levi]

BEV cultists use double standards. Include PHEVs to inflate BEV numbers, include PHEVs to demonize ICEVs.

PHEVs mostly make sense with home/work charging infrastructure, which is needed for BEVs too. But BEVs could also work with without that if there are charging stations, but there are no. PHEVs on the other hand will not work without tanking stations, which are also used by ICEVs/HEVs.

if every city car was a Toyota Aygo, we'd already have way more fluid/cleaner cities.

if every ICEV in cities was a BEV, air would be cleaner, but traffic would be just the same, parking would still be an issue and costly.

i think we need a general BEV thread to discuss the issues at hand. obviously ICEVs are not the way of going forward, but a solution had to be worked on 30 years ago. if Toyota was not alone doing HEVs, while others were doing diesel, things would be different now.

 

[spwolf]

Did VW get where it is with EVs as a true good-for-the-environment vision or did it get there in an attempt to make good on the bad-for-environment and bad-for-corporate-ethics problem that Dieselgate made visible?

They got there to make money.

 

[spwolf]

BEV cultists use double standards. Include PHEVs to inflate BEV numbers, include PHEVs to demonize ICEVs.

It is industry term... You can always find numbers for both.

 

[ssun30]

Did VW get where it is with EVs as a true good-for-the-environment vision or did it get there in an attempt to make good on the bad-for-environment and bad-for-corporate-ethics problem that Dieselgate made visible?

And on the opposite side of this coin, because Toyota has not had a similar major corporate crisis, I believe that Toyota continues to be resting on its laurels. At one time -- 2 decades and more ago -- Toyota was quite innovative. It developed the Toyota Hybrid System and Prius, the first modern production hybrid vehicle. It also developed the hands-free autonomous parallel parking system. But in the last decade-and-a-half, it seems to have slowed down and become terribly and overly cautious. What happened?

THS was born in the Bubble Era when Japanese companies were willing to take very high risks.

Toyota became cautious because of the 2008 recession and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. That's why they reduce risks whenever possible and it paid dividends: they identified weaknesses in their supply chain and thus took as little hit possible from the pandemic and chip shortage. And that's why they are so cautious with EVs. The global supply chain for EVs is extremely fragile. They saw this with Prius during the 2010 REE embargo. Gambling is never a good way to run a company.

The simple fact is that every mainstream car maker (i.e. not Tesla) is investing in multiple electrification technologies, but they only talk about their BEV efforts because it's popular PR. VAG will never tell the media their main push today is actually (mild) HEV and they are developing FCEV because the moment you mention 'hybrids' and 'hydrogen fuel cells' the media will label you as 'uninnovative' because of the 'BEV or bust' narrative. It's the same reason you can never talk about nuclear power when discussing about replacing fossil fuel.