Toyota EV/eTNGA Rumor Thread

ssun30

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generally since i know it is a Toyota, and focus will be on different things, i dont have high hopes... but then again, Prime powertrain is impressive.
Given their recent NCM811 debacle with the GAC-Toyota iA5 (they had to limit range with an OTA update to reduce fire risk after many fire incidents and thus getting sued for false advertising), I think the BZ4X will use a more conservative NCM622.

I remember two years ago I said the GAC Aion S/GAC-Toyota iA5 are basically China's TM3 with all the advanced technology it packs. Well it turned out to be an unreliable and unsafe piece of junk with adoption of unproven technology. Luckily they never put a Toyota badge on it.

Of course one would be disappointed by the range and power it offers for the price because Toyota still refuses to sell EVs below cost.
 

Will1991

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That’s so much better than I was expecting after the UX300e!
What’s yours opinion about the correlation to the RZ450e? Do you think it’s going to have the same drivetrain?
 

spwolf

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30 min to charge 90 kWh battery from 10% to 80% at 150 kW, is not possible I think.

it is very achievable. 2021 Model 3 on SC G3 does 10%-80% in 28m.
And it is not super great result either, Tesla also needs to improve battery cooling to do better.

Battery cooling was a problem with their first EVs, so I guess this is a step up.
 

ssun30

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I have some unfortunate info on SSBs from a TMEC EV engineer. SSB in EVs will unlikely happen before 2030, and this is true for every manufacturer. The main issue is still electrode material degradation (for deep cycle) which still hasn't been resolved even at lab scale (but they say it's getting close). The 2025 SSB Toyota is trying to mass produce will be for HEVs only. This is because HEV have very shallow cycles so durability is less of a problem.

IMO this is bound to happen. We see the industry is now refocusing on improving safety and durability of current battery chemistry (712 or 811) and trying new packaging methods such as cell-to-pack (CTP) and cell-to-chassis (CTC). There are still lots of low hanging fruit so we don't need SSBs yet to get another 50% gains in range. And more interest is on low-cost but lower-performance solutions like Na-ion and improved LFP.

I think after half a decade of overhyped progress at breakneck speed, we will enter a period when incremental gains are made towards more practical and profitable EVs for the masses instead of numbers chasing. And that is a good thing because we need the supply chain to catch up. SSBs will use twice as much lithium per cell. The global supply chain is too fragile for a surge in Li demand. Progressing too quickly just put EVs further from economy feasibility.

I find the SSB hype similar to autonomous driving. Remember back in 2019 everyone says L4 is only 2 years away? Now it's almost 2022 and the only true L3-capable car in the world is the Honda Legend (forget about Tesla and Audi A8, they are not even close to real L3).

Those 'SSB' already in production are half solid-state batteries. In this design only half of the electrodes are in contact with liquid electrolytes while the other half is dry type. Half solid-state batteries still have 20-30% extra energy density over NCM811 but the cost may not justify use in mass market EVs and will likely for high-end models but mostly drones.

30 min to charge 90 kWh battery from 10% to 80% at 150 kW, is not possible I think.
The actual SoC charged is only 60-65% of the 90kWh. So it's not impossible if the onboard charging system is very efficient.
 

ssun30

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Here's what everything in the puzzle meant.
1300: Launched in 1300 dealerships across China.
2850: wheelbase in mm.
1000: rear legroom in mm.
500: WLTC EV range.
150: yoke steering lock is only 150 degrees to each side. also DC fast charging speed.
30: time to 80% charge.
1800: solar roof generates 1800km extra range per year
5.7: turn radius
90: percentage capacity guaranteed over 10 years (!)
 

Levi

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That’s so much better than I was expecting after the UX300e!
What’s yours opinion about the correlation to the RZ450e? Do you think it’s going to have the same drivetrain?


I think we got the answer to that question. bZ4X FWD has one 150 kW (201 HP) motor, bZ4X AWD has two 80 kW (107 HP) motors for a total of 160 kW (215 HP). Expect the RZ450e to get at least 80 kW front, 150 kW rear for a total of 230 kW (308 HP) or 150 kW front and rear for a total of 300 kW (402 HP). In the later more case, 0-100 km/h should drop under 6 sec, weight with larger motors and battery should add at least 200 kg, add the larger size and more luxury, the car should reach a weight of 2.400 kg.
 

Will1991

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I have some unfortunate info on SSBs from a TMEC EV engineer. SSB in EVs will unlikely happen before 2030, and this is true for every manufacturer. The main issue is still electrode material degradation (for deep cycle) which still hasn't been resolved even at lab scale (but they say it's getting close). The 2025 SSB Toyota is trying to mass produce will be for HEVs only. This is because HEV have very shallow cycles so durability is less of a problem.

IMO this is bound to happen. We see the industry is now refocusing on improving safety and durability of current battery chemistry (712 or 811) and trying new packaging methods such as cell-to-pack (CTP) and cell-to-chassis (CTC). There are still lots of low hanging fruit so we don't need SSBs yet to get another 50% gains in range. And more interest is on low-cost but lower-performance solutions like Na-ion and improved LFP.

I think after half a decade of overhyped progress at breakneck speed, we will enter a period when incremental gains are made towards more practical and profitable EVs for the masses instead of numbers chasing. And that is a good thing because we need the supply chain to catch up. SSBs will use twice as much lithium per cell. The global supply chain is too fragile for a surge in Li demand. Progressing too quickly just put EVs further from economy feasibility.

I find the SSB hype similar to autonomous driving. Remember back in 2019 everyone says L4 is only 2 years away? Now it's almost 2022 and the only true L3-capable car in the world is the Honda Legend (forget about Tesla and Audi A8, they are not even close to real L3).

Those 'SSB' already in production are half solid-state batteries. In this design only half of the electrodes are in contact with liquid electrolytes while the other half is dry type. Half solid-state batteries still have 20-30% extra energy density over NCM811 but the cost may not justify use in mass market EVs and will likely for high-end models but mostly drones.


The actual SoC charged is only 60-65% of the 90kWh. So it's not impossible if the onboard charging system is very efficient.

Your message is in line with what we're seeing in the industry.

Even Tesla, went from the initial super-aggressive battery evolution to more small and incremental updates.

And we've a couple of examples, they're now using the inferior (for ultimate power/energy density) LFP in large numbers and even the 4680 timetable have peen pushed forward.
There's also the canceled Model S Plaid + and the delays for the Semi (which I think is still too much spec for current tech), Roadster and Cyber.

For me, it shows a clear sign that's getting considerably harder/expensive to improve on current tech.

But I will be honest, I was expecting the RZ450e facelift to fulfill the concept specs for 2025 to achieve the quoted 0-60 in 3 sec from a 90kWh battery, and I would say it was from a SSB to achieve such a high C rate.
 

CRSKTN

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I would say there are reasons to be excited about battery tech that I can’t speak publicly about.
 

LS500-18

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Tesla is becoming Apple, ground breaking products to start and then after a number of years most updates are "meh". They're much worse than Apple though when it comes to quality, support, and hype.

Apple is smart enough to not hype sh1t that will never come out as described, but Tesla is small so they need to keep the carrot dangled in front of your nose to keep the fanboys frothing at the mouth for years. Where is the million robotaxis by end of 2020? Full self driving trip across the USA back in what 2018?? Oh never mind that, look a yooooke!!!!

Other than the poor 0-60 times the Bz specs are pretty decent for Toyota's first real attempt at a BEV.
 

Levi

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i would not call it attempt. 2 years ago nobody even knew if TMC was going to ever make any BEVs. in a few months it will be in the streets.
 

spwolf

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Tesla is becoming Apple, ground breaking products to start and then after a number of years most updates are "meh". They're much worse than Apple though when it comes to quality, support, and hype.

Apple is smart enough to not hype sh1t that will never come out as described, but Tesla is small so they need to keep the carrot dangled in front of your nose to keep the fanboys frothing at the mouth for years. Where is the million robotaxis by end of 2020? Full self driving trip across the USA back in what 2018?? Oh never mind that, look a yooooke!!!!

Other than the poor 0-60 times the Bz specs are pretty decent for Toyota's first real attempt at a BEV.

Tesla likes kaizen, and they update their vehicles all the time. Compared to just few years ago, new vehicles from them are technically a lot better, have a lot longer range, etc, etc.