If you look back at the 3GS and 4GS, it's pretty clear that this car has been Lexus' red headed step child for a very long time. I am very sad to say something like this, but it will not surprise me to see Lexus axe the GS line.
2006 - 3GS debuts with 245hp V6 and carryover 4.3L V8
2007 - 3.0L V6 is replaced with 3.5L V6 making more horsepower than 4.3L V8
2008 - Lexus drops a poorly executed refresh and inserts the detuned 4.6L V8 under the hood, replacing the 4.3L V8, but then makes the car special order only (essentially)
Over it's lifetime, 3GS had some quality problems and was never a great car by any standard.
2013 - 4GS debuts with same carryover V6 that the car has had since 2007, V8 is dropped completely, no advertising for GS 450h
2016 - GS is refreshed, 200t model is added, GS F is added but 100+hp behind the competition
Over this same time, we have seen Audi, Mercedes and BMW throw everything but the kitchen sink at the A6, E Class and 5 Series - 4 cylinders up to turbocharged V8s, AWD, RWD, hybrids, plug ins, diesels, M Sport, E 43 AMG, S, RS, carbon fiber construction, etc. You name it, they've done it - and we have watched Lexus give up.
I worked in Lexus dealerships for about 3 years and told many people that the biggest problem the GS has is the ES... and few believed me. To the car buying public, they walk into a Lexus dealership wanting a midsize sedan with nice features and a Lexus badge - they do not care about it being FWD or RWD or based on a Camry or whatever else. ES is the bread and butter solution - dealers stock tons of them in popular color combinations, the ES offers 90% of the same options as the GS and costs 30% less money. So what happens? Even people who come in wanting to buy a GS are often pushed into an ES. Dealers often only stock 5-10 GSs because they sell so few of them and push everyone into an ES. I have seen this happen time, time, and time again.
The GS is a good car but Lexus has mishandled it at every turn - from R&D and engineering, to the sales cycle (as seen above). Lexus has never worked on a program to prove the value of the GS or get sales people to CARE about why it's a more premium product vs ES. 4GS should have been much more dramatic looking - and I'm not just talking about an overwrought, ill fitting spindle grille. GS should be packing 330+ horsepower in V6 guise and 450+ from a V8 model, and 550+ from a GS F. More luxury features, more promotion of the hybrid model, etc.
Lexus can price the ES like an entry level product because it shares so much in common with the Avalon/Camry, but the reality is that most people in the market shop it against E Class, 5 Series and A6. As the ES has grown and matured (now even built on the larger Avalon chassis instead of Camry), Lexus has done absolutely nothing to elevate the GS line.
I hoped that with rumors of the LS moving upmarket, this would be Lexus' chance to elevate the GS and move it fully above the ES line and in more direct competition with the 5, E and A6, but it seems like conversely, Lexus has been quietly building the business case to drop the GS for two generations now.
In my mind, it would make a lot more sense for Lexus to drop or reposition the ES and firmly position the GS as the brand's midsize sedan. Now that Lexus has GA-L, having IS, GS, LS, LC and RC all using the same chassis, powertrains and running gear makes a lot more sense to me than trying to doll up a FWD TNGA platform. GS is also more well known around the globe and is offered with everything from 2.0T to 300h hybrid to GS F. The business case is there - in theory, but conversely...
... if TNGA is as good as Toyota says it is, perhaps they can move the ES line up market by offering AWD, 2.0T, the new 296hp V6 with 8AT and various technology packages. I absolutely hate this idea, but if they are truly canning the GS, this provides an opportunity to move the ES upmarket a bit.
Simultaneously, we are also hearing rumors about the production of GX coming to an end with no replacement, but many of us are anticipating RX L to launch this year. Another example of a more plebeian FWD product supplanting a more upscale, better engineered product because for most intents and purposes, "it works." If it's true that we are looking at the end of both the GS and GX models in the next few years, I am unsure of how someone hasn't realized that Lexus is wiping out the entire middle tier of of it's product portfolio? IS/NX/UX/RX/ES are compact to entry level products and GS/GX have always occupied the middle ground between these models and the flagship LX/LS. I don't just say that because I'm looking to fill up space on a product plan but...
Right now, RXs max out around $60k and ESs max out around $46k. LX starts at $90k and LS starts at $73k, and that isn't the new model which I'm sure will be more expensive. Let's assume that RX L comes up ~$4k over the SWB version. What is Lexus' plan to cover a $25k gap between RX L and LX? Or a $30k+ gap between ES and LS?
Dropping GS and GX turns Lexus into Acura/Infiniti with the addition of three halo "pie in the sky" cars that few people will care about - LX, LC and LS, and no real platform to support them from below.
I am really hoping that the GS program is simply delayed and Lexus wants to launch LS, ES and IS before repositioning the GS in a higher class. Knock out the ES and LS above and below it, and figure out the right value proposition for GS to sit in between. There could be some validity in this theory as Lexus has a bad habit of bunching all of their sedan redesigns together over the course of 18-20 months, and delaying the GS would allow them to stretch out the redesigns and excitement for their sedan line a little further.
Similarly, there needs to be a succession plan for the GX or some type of sub-LX, above-RX model. I assume that a GA-L based SUV that's a true X5 fighter makes the most sense. Lexus is already building 2018 models and the RX 350 doesn't even crack 300 horsepower. There are a lot of people who are hungry for an RX or GX-type vehicle with next generation tech and 350+ horsepower, but not something that costs $90k.
For me, Lexus is not Lexus without the GS and GX. I hope they don't make the moves to cut either of those vehicles completely, because if they do, I will probably have seen my last day as a Lexus enthusiast.