Lexus Has Cancelled the GS Sedan

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Carmaker1

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Newly from MAG-X is a rather concerning headline that informally translates to: レクサスGS開発凍結 or "Rekusasu GS Development Freeze". I do not want to be making any international purchases just yet, so I will have to wait until feasible tomorrow to get a copy. In the meantime, let's figure out what this means.
book_image_1702.jpg

Would it refer to development being halted on the next generation GS at this point? As freezing of development means it is suspended (possibly indefinitely). A design freeze alternatively refers to suspending or conclusion of design work. Development freeze should be happening towards launch, not at this point. Development on a next GS would have started sometime in late 2013 or 2014.
 

Carmaker1

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...yikes...

Wow, well it looks like that hunch is true. Lexus has indeed suspended development of a next generation GS as of the last 2 weeks and will reportedly shift R&D efforts to other model programs.

The same extends to the Toyota brand S-FR, which will not go into production either. I am currently in a position that does not allow me to purchase from a Mag-X seller, as the very debit and credit cards I use online for Asian subscriptions, I left back in England. I will get back on this after I return back.

This Taiwanese site at least gave a description of the 5GS situation:

Lexus GS新世代可能難產,因為原廠已凍結新車開發工作 (The new generation of Lexus GS may be difficult to produce as the company has frozen development of new cars.)

原本一度以為車廠政策改以SUV優先下而會被犧牲掉之Lexus CT,在經過不斷追蹤下,isCar確認CT未來還會有明天,原廠仍會持續開發下一代車型。但是故事並未因為到此而結束,一個更讓人驚訝的劇情還在後頭:據傳Lexus內部已經暫時中止GS的後繼車型開發計畫!


Lexus這個突如其來的舉動其實在Toyota集團已經不是第一次,讀者還記得2015年東京車展上所展出的那款S-FR後驅小跑車概念車,大家都已經篤定這款車在量產化後勢必成為86之下的最入門小跑車,但是事與願違,Toyota在該車確定登台演出前夕,確認該車將不會量產,僅以概念車來展示。這下子S-FR便顯得好尷尬,原本要以東京車展為舞台,好好來為日後量產造勢的S-FR,只能讓大夥在現場看著這款後驅小可愛流口水。

如今歷史又將重演,做為Lexus開國功臣車系之一的GS,在面對未來新世代車型開發之際,車廠發現到下一代GS可能會出一個大問題,那就是新車的市場定位可能會和即將到來的全新LS糾葛不清。原來預計在2017年夏天於日本推出的全新五代LS,由於動力考量Downsizg,過去V8自然進氣引擎確定莎喲娜啦,取而代之的是V6雙Turbo引擎,這樣一來讓同樣也可望採用V6 Turbo的新GS不免為跟新LS打對台。在目前車廠還沒摸索出來下一代GS的發展動向前,Lexus內部決定暫緩新車的開發,將研發力量移轉到其它更迫切的商品上,如目前正如火如荼開發的UX LSUV。

若是按照過往的規劃,下一代GS應該在2018年推出,但是由於計畫更動,現行車款預期仍將繼續賣到2018年,至於2018年以後會是甚麼樣的景況,也只能騎驢看唱本:走著瞧!但可以肯定的是,絕對不是新舊交替。

To summarize and translate, the UX will certainly move forward, but the next GS will be delayed, with the L10 aka 4GS remaining in production through the end of 2018 and experiencing a moderate hiatus.

I felt like the sales slump last year could predict this kind of decision-making happening, but hoped they would bite the bullet and move forward, writing off the 2015-18 refresh as a temporary mistake.

People forget Toyota is very strict about their bottom line and are not simply here to cater to the whims of a few. Thus the next ES moves forward and the GS gets yanked.
 
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Gecko

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Wow, well it looks like that hunch is true. Lexus has indeed suspended development of a next generation GS as of the last 2 weeks and will reportedly shift R&D efforts to other model programs.

The same extends to the Toyota brand S-FR, which will not go into production either. I am currently in a position that does not allow me to purchase from a Mag-X seller, as the very debit and credit cards I use online for Asian subscriptions, I left back in England. I will get back on this after I return back.

This Taiwanese site at least gave a description of the 5GS situation:



To summarize and translate, the UX will certainly move forward, but the next GS will be delayed, with the L10 aka 4GS remaining in production through the end of 2018 and experiencing a moderate hiatus.

I felt like the sales slump last year could predict this kind of decision-making happening, but hoped they would bite the bullet and move forward, writing off the 2015-18 refresh as a temporary mistake.

People forget Toyota is very strict about their bottom line and are not simply here to cater to the whims of a few. Thus the next ES moves forward and the GS gets yanked.

So, is that your assumption at this time? GS is discontinued and ES carries on as Lexus de facto midsize sedan?

Or do you think the GS program is just being delayed slightly, but will return?
 

krew

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To summarize and translate, the UX will certainly move forward, but the next GS will be delayed, with the L10 aka 4GS remaining in production through the end of 2018 and experiencing a moderate hiatus.

I felt like the sales slump last year could predict this kind of decision-making happening, but hoped they would bite the bullet and move forward, writing off the 2015-18 refresh as a temporary mistake.

People forget Toyota is very strict about their bottom line and are not simply here to cater to the whims of a few. Thus the next ES moves forward and the GS gets yanked.

Doing my best to get this Mag-X issue, though no luck so far. I want to hold off on writing about this until I get the full story -- cancelling the GS is a major mistake, if true. Goes against the whole performance push of the brand.

The GS needs to get better, not disappear.
 

DFGeneer

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Canning GS will be a huge mistake.
It is the image that sells in this segment and cancelling a midsize model will be a major hit on the image.
 

GSCT

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Canning GS will be a huge mistake.
It is the image that sells in this segment and cancelling a midsize model will be a major hit on the image.

I would agree but the GS is treated with disdain and indifference at the dealer level, leading to a vicious circle of declining sales leading to less interest leading to declining sales etc. I also agree with Krew - Lexus needs to devote more resources to the GS, not less before it will be seen as a competitor to Mercedes' E Class.
 

DFGeneer

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Lexus surely need to stand stronger behind the GS. And in a way it does - this is the model with the most available modifications in Europe at the moment - 200t, 300h, 450h, F.
Also in Europe, there is no ES, so GS is the only midsize sedan.
Then there is the new TNGA-L platform which is supposed to lower the development costs substantially. So, after thinking about it, cancelling GS really makes no sense and I am inclined to doubt the news that they would do it.
 

Carmaker1

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So, is that your assumption at this time? GS is discontinued and ES carries on as Lexus de facto midsize sedan?

Or do you think the GS program is just being delayed slightly, but will return?

As dramatic I look at this, I believe delayed slightly, which isn't any better. The ISF was essentially delayed too, as it will likely return by 2021. Any delays make for product launch overlap, which is not good for the GS and IS to launch the same year again like in 2005. If anyone was shown the 7ES last year, like 5LS in fall 2014, it would mean it is very far along. However unlike the 5LS, that window is probably much smaller thanks to shorter development lead times for FWD Toyota programs.
 

Gecko

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If you look back at the 3GS and 4GS, it's pretty clear that this car has been Lexus' red headed step child for a very long time. I am very sad to say something like this, but it will not surprise me to see Lexus axe the GS line.

2006 - 3GS debuts with 245hp V6 and carryover 4.3L V8
2007 - 3.0L V6 is replaced with 3.5L V6 making more horsepower than 4.3L V8
2008 - Lexus drops a poorly executed refresh and inserts the detuned 4.6L V8 under the hood, replacing the 4.3L V8, but then makes the car special order only (essentially)
Over it's lifetime, 3GS had some quality problems and was never a great car by any standard.

2013 - 4GS debuts with same carryover V6 that the car has had since 2007, V8 is dropped completely, no advertising for GS 450h
2016 - GS is refreshed, 200t model is added, GS F is added but 100+hp behind the competition

Over this same time, we have seen Audi, Mercedes and BMW throw everything but the kitchen sink at the A6, E Class and 5 Series - 4 cylinders up to turbocharged V8s, AWD, RWD, hybrids, plug ins, diesels, M Sport, E 43 AMG, S, RS, carbon fiber construction, etc. You name it, they've done it - and we have watched Lexus give up.

I worked in Lexus dealerships for about 3 years and told many people that the biggest problem the GS has is the ES... and few believed me. To the car buying public, they walk into a Lexus dealership wanting a midsize sedan with nice features and a Lexus badge - they do not care about it being FWD or RWD or based on a Camry or whatever else. ES is the bread and butter solution - dealers stock tons of them in popular color combinations, the ES offers 90% of the same options as the GS and costs 30% less money. So what happens? Even people who come in wanting to buy a GS are often pushed into an ES. Dealers often only stock 5-10 GSs because they sell so few of them and push everyone into an ES. I have seen this happen time, time, and time again.

The GS is a good car but Lexus has mishandled it at every turn - from R&D and engineering, to the sales cycle (as seen above). Lexus has never worked on a program to prove the value of the GS or get sales people to CARE about why it's a more premium product vs ES. 4GS should have been much more dramatic looking - and I'm not just talking about an overwrought, ill fitting spindle grille. GS should be packing 330+ horsepower in V6 guise and 450+ from a V8 model, and 550+ from a GS F. More luxury features, more promotion of the hybrid model, etc.

Lexus can price the ES like an entry level product because it shares so much in common with the Avalon/Camry, but the reality is that most people in the market shop it against E Class, 5 Series and A6. As the ES has grown and matured (now even built on the larger Avalon chassis instead of Camry), Lexus has done absolutely nothing to elevate the GS line.

I hoped that with rumors of the LS moving upmarket, this would be Lexus' chance to elevate the GS and move it fully above the ES line and in more direct competition with the 5, E and A6, but it seems like conversely, Lexus has been quietly building the business case to drop the GS for two generations now.

In my mind, it would make a lot more sense for Lexus to drop or reposition the ES and firmly position the GS as the brand's midsize sedan. Now that Lexus has GA-L, having IS, GS, LS, LC and RC all using the same chassis, powertrains and running gear makes a lot more sense to me than trying to doll up a FWD TNGA platform. GS is also more well known around the globe and is offered with everything from 2.0T to 300h hybrid to GS F. The business case is there - in theory, but conversely...

... if TNGA is as good as Toyota says it is, perhaps they can move the ES line up market by offering AWD, 2.0T, the new 296hp V6 with 8AT and various technology packages. I absolutely hate this idea, but if they are truly canning the GS, this provides an opportunity to move the ES upmarket a bit.


Simultaneously, we are also hearing rumors about the production of GX coming to an end with no replacement, but many of us are anticipating RX L to launch this year. Another example of a more plebeian FWD product supplanting a more upscale, better engineered product because for most intents and purposes, "it works." If it's true that we are looking at the end of both the GS and GX models in the next few years, I am unsure of how someone hasn't realized that Lexus is wiping out the entire middle tier of of it's product portfolio? IS/NX/UX/RX/ES are compact to entry level products and GS/GX have always occupied the middle ground between these models and the flagship LX/LS. I don't just say that because I'm looking to fill up space on a product plan but...

Right now, RXs max out around $60k and ESs max out around $46k. LX starts at $90k and LS starts at $73k, and that isn't the new model which I'm sure will be more expensive. Let's assume that RX L comes up ~$4k over the SWB version. What is Lexus' plan to cover a $25k gap between RX L and LX? Or a $30k+ gap between ES and LS?

Dropping GS and GX turns Lexus into Acura/Infiniti with the addition of three halo "pie in the sky" cars that few people will care about - LX, LC and LS, and no real platform to support them from below.


I am really hoping that the GS program is simply delayed and Lexus wants to launch LS, ES and IS before repositioning the GS in a higher class. Knock out the ES and LS above and below it, and figure out the right value proposition for GS to sit in between. There could be some validity in this theory as Lexus has a bad habit of bunching all of their sedan redesigns together over the course of 18-20 months, and delaying the GS would allow them to stretch out the redesigns and excitement for their sedan line a little further.

Similarly, there needs to be a succession plan for the GX or some type of sub-LX, above-RX model. I assume that a GA-L based SUV that's a true X5 fighter makes the most sense. Lexus is already building 2018 models and the RX 350 doesn't even crack 300 horsepower. There are a lot of people who are hungry for an RX or GX-type vehicle with next generation tech and 350+ horsepower, but not something that costs $90k.

For me, Lexus is not Lexus without the GS and GX. I hope they don't make the moves to cut either of those vehicles completely, because if they do, I will probably have seen my last day as a Lexus enthusiast.
 
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Carmaker1

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Doing my best to get this Mag-X issue, though no luck so far. I want to hold off on writing about this until I get the full story -- cancelling the GS is a major mistake, if true. Goes against the whole performance push of the brand.

The GS needs to get better, not disappear.

Certainly, I am not able to make purchases through AS Books until I return to the UK or mainland Europe. On my way to Amsterdam tonight (GMT +1) 23:55 at least, so hopefully I'll know more by then too.

From Andy:
Great info, carmaker1!

Not sure how you got the MagX but this is the place if I am looking to buy or take a peek at Japanese car magazines, including Mag X.

http://www.as-books.jp/books/info.php?no=NMX20160426
 

krew

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Here it is, the page from Mag-X:

mag-x-screenshot.jpg

Any translation would be appreciated -- I can also post it up at a higher resolution if necessary.

EDIT: I now realize the full page spread was unnecessary. Here is just the GS page:

mag-x-screenshot-2.jpg
 
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Ian Schmidt

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Over this same time, we have seen Audi, Mercedes and BMW throw everything but the kitchen sink at the A6, E Class and 5 Series - 4 cylinders up to turbocharged V8s, AWD, RWD, hybrids, plug ins, diesels, M Sport, E 43 AMG, S, RS, carbon fiber construction, etc. You name it, they've done it - and we have watched Lexus give up.

To me, this actually indicates that the Germans have the same directionless middle-model syndrome that Lexus does, they're just more violent about it :) They've quite literally thrown everything at a wall in an attempt to get something to stick in the vacuum between (using BMW's lineup for brevity) the 3 Series and 7 Series. All of those middle models are dwarfed on the road by the models above and (especially) below them, just as the GS is by the ES and LS. It may be that the way to win that segment is not to play, or it may be that it's just going to be a niche no matter what you do.
 

Gecko

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^The Germans also have 6 Series GC, CLS, A7 and V6 models of their flagships, so I see your point.

Overall though, GS is just so far behind what everyone else is doing and it feels like Lexus has never even made the effort. We are talking about a 12 year old engine at this point. That's really not acceptable, and that's only one area where the car is deficient.
 

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Doing a little wall-tossing of my own, what might make sense is to actually eliminate the engine and leapfrog the Germans. Make the next GS a full-on BEV that's a tech and design showcase to directly fight Tesla. Toss in Mercedes-style body control, vastly improved infotainment, and (semi-)autonomous driving. (I'd want to see most or all of that tech to also appear in the 5LS, of course). The GS F could just be a larger battery, like the P90D/P100D, and a CUV version with 3-row seating could hunt the Model X and potentially replace the GX.
 
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meth.ix

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I think Lexus needs to make it more obvious that the GS is more upmarket than the ES by giving it more powerful engines (including a V8, possibly IS F V8), more luxurious styling (a little bit of chrome?) and I think it needs an even longer wheelbase now that we are assuming that the 5LS will have a longer wheelbase and the US will only get LWB, that gives more potential for the GS to get bigger and closer to the competition. Also, i personally feel that the interior is nice, but a bit boring and needs restyling.
 

Gecko

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Doing a little wall-tossing of my own, what might make sense is to actually eliminate the engine and leapfrog the Germans. Make the next GS a full-on BEV that's a tech and design showcase to directly fight Tesla. Toss in Mercedes-style body control, vastly improved infotainment, and (semi-)autonomous driving. (I'd want to see most or all of that tech to also appear in the 5LS, of course). The GS F could just be a larger battery, like the P90D/P100D, and a CUV version with 3-row seating could hunt the Model X and potentially replace the GX.

Whatever the case, some type of dramatic change is needed. ES has been grown and elevated by Lexus, year over year. Hell, the ES even offers/ed an ultra luxury package and a panoramic roof. Why does the GS have no such options?

My first thought is to go all out and position the GS as an A7/CLS fighting 4-door coupe, designing it to look something like a sedan version of the LC. Bring back the curvy, dramatic GS shape and details - the 4GS has been the most bland generation yet. Offer it with a big turbo V6, the same hybrid from the LC, a blown V8 F model and a plug in to battle Tesla.

Two midsize sedans within 30 horsepower and a few inches of each other doesn't make a lot of sense, specially for the GS when the ES offers many of the same options and costs 20% less. There is simply not enough differentiation and it's killing the GS.
 

Gecko

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GS and GX made up more than 40k units of Lexus U.S. sales in 2016.

~15k GS
~25k GX

That's a significant chunk of volume - they're the 4th and 5th best selling Lexus models.
 

meth.ix

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I highly doubt that Lexus will ever make a performance model of a mainstream model such as the GS F fully electric or even hybrid before a German manufacturer does so first and then receives lots of praise for it to join the bandwagon.

The looks of the GS and the ES are vastly different from each other, that's not the problem. The problem is that the ES looks normal and somewhat luxurious, while the GS only looks sportier, not more upmarket. Compared to its competition, the GS doesn't look as exclusive and high-end as it should. The best example IMO of how its competition shows this look is the new E-Class.
2017-mercedes-benz-e-class-photos-and-info-news-car-and-driver-photo-665186-s-429x262.jpg

I think the main thing about this car that makes it look so grand is the grill. That chrome and the slats just give such a regal look that I can't explain. Also the hood ornament, Many people on this forum are highly against having chrome on Lexus models, but I honestly don't think it has any excess of it, and we're talking about a luxury company here, not a Toyota car! The ES is more family-oriented, while the GS should be more of a car focused on the rear seats for the people that don't want to go all the way up to an LS. The LS is rumored to be going bigger, in price and size, giving room for the GS to get bigger in size and price too, so it can be more differentiated from the ES and more exclusive.
 
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