Official Toyota & Lexus Future Powertrain/Product Discussion

isanatori

Follower
Messages
103
Reaction score
108
It's fooling of consumer when sub litre engine gets over 7L/100km
Absolutely correct.
The less power per litre of total chambers capacity, the less toxic and non toxic emissions.

In HSD the M2 electric motor nullifies the need for air charging. In that sense it's pretty easy increasing the efficiency of the engine. Not only that, but the ecvt keeps the engine rpm at most efficient point ALL THE TIME.
Toyota HSD cars are the most environmentally friendly cars with ICE, by a mile!
 

Joaquin Ruhi

Expert
Staff member
Moderator
Messages
1,073
Reaction score
1,510
These excerpts from an article by Jonathon Ramsey of Autoblog on the VW ID BEV may well explain, at least in part, Toyota's reticence on BEVs:

Volkswagen will open pre-orders for the ID. hatchback, the first offering in the ID. range, on May 8. .. German magazine Auto Motor & Sport expects the price for th(e) base model to be about 29,990 euros before any EV purchase incentives. The mag also figures VW will lose 3,000 euros on each car sold.

At the current exchange rate, that's $3,348 per car. It's a substantial number considering how many ID hatchbacks Volkswagen wants to sell, and how many other EVs will quickly follow, all of which we assume will bring some red with them. However, in context of reports over the past two years, it's a sign things are looking up. Or less down.

In November 2016, The Detroit News reported that General Motors could lose as much as $9,000 on every Bolt sold to customers. In October 2017, the late Sergio Marchionne said Fiat loses as much as $20,000 on each Fiat 500e the carmaker sells. In January 2018 Moody's estimated that automakers lose from $7,000 to $10,000 for every EV they sell. In October 2018 Alix Partners figured EVs cost almost $9,000 more to produce than conventional vehicles. Last week, Moody's said EVs "often cost $12,000 more to produce" than traditional cars. These numbers remain fluid conjecture because EV R&D budgets run well into the billions, and will grow. VW and Daimler have set aside a combined $35 billion for EV investment for the time being, and both have said "it would not be enough."

So for all that, if Auto Motor & Sport is correct, $3,348 per car isn't so bad. And every automaker in the game says red ink on the electric side will continue until at least the middle of the next decade.
https://www.autoblog.com/2019/04/28/vw-lose-3000-euros-id-hatchback/

Beyond those numbers, and Toyota's heartfelt belief in their Hybrid Synergy Drive and its multiple iterations, perhaps they'd rather expend their time, money and resources on reaching the solid state Holy Grail of electric car batteries. Toyota's certainly farther along on that quest than anybody else.
 

Joe

Admirer
Premium Member
Messages
226
Reaction score
367
Beyond those numbers, and Toyota's heartfelt belief in their Hybrid Synergy Drive and its multiple iterations, perhaps they'd rather expend their time, money and resources on reaching the solid state Holy Grail of electric car batteries. Toyota's certainly farther along on that quest than anybody else.
For the sake of Lexus' commercial success, I hope they will jump to the solid state tech before other premium manufacturers do to be able to build some commercial credibility again. Unfortunately, with the inside info that I have for the moment, I am afraid that it is not going to happen very soon. This means that - at least in Europe - Lexus nowadays is falling far behind competitors in terms of 'electrified brand image' by not offering any BEV or PHEV, even if HEV is still a very powerful solution.

In the 'old' days, we tried to build brand image with Lexus Hybrid Drive as the best diesel alternative explaining and educating people of the multiple benefits of the system, sometimes helped by local interesting fiscal regulation. Now we are struggling again, explaining the benefits of self-charging technology versus the cable charging solutions. The electrification attack plans from the big 4 (BMW, Mercedes, Audi and Volvo) are huge (i.e. multiple models for all of these brands in the coming 2 years), but Lexus is too slow... I hope it won't be 'too little, too late'.
 

internalaudit

Follower
Messages
113
Reaction score
118
Considering it took 20 years hybrid powertrains getting mature, five years for BEV baterries development seems like 100m sprint race with hurdles. Shouldn't we as fans, be a bit more patient to our favorite company? They have lost 20 years from their plans. It will be impossible lifting considerably their technological level pace ahead of competition.

I am also disappointed we are not interested in our favorite company visionary activities.Rather, we are passionate about competition.
Seems not many people have seen skyjet. Some of the technologies could had been implemented IF... making BEVs virtually eclipsed by now.
Considering many here have already posted how Toyota is the most profitable car company in the world, I think five years of waiting is very generous of me. It actually coincides when my daughter graduates from university and when we most likely will be needing to replace my aging 02 Honda Civic.

I'm not going to worry about Toyota's finances and turnaround effort as I like the brand as a consumer but I'm not a shareholder. :) Don't get me wrong, I'm not one of those consumers who nitpick on just about anything. The only complaints I have on our 16 RAV4H are the steering feel and handling around corners. :)
 

Will1991

Follower
Messages
129
Reaction score
187
I don't get it... Supposedly everyone looses money on BEV's (even Toyota), so how does Tesla manage to get +20% profit on Model 3? Keep in mind their Model S (their first real production vehicle) was launched in 2012, 7 years ago without any previous know-how!
Their cars are not perfect, far from it, but they really managed to shape a whole industry a lot faster and a lot more than Toyota's HSD and I give him a lot of credit for this.
 

internalaudit

Follower
Messages
113
Reaction score
118
There will be just margin contraction for Toyota on the BEVs it sells because the battery pack will initially cost more than the engine/transmission on its regular ICEVs. Maybe the eCVT on HSD is already viable for BEV usage as it is or with some tweaks.

The Prius Prime already proves Toyota can make BEVs. I've been telling Tesla fanboys that for a few years now.
 

internalaudit

Follower
Messages
113
Reaction score
118
I don't get it... Supposedly everyone looses money on BEV's (even Toyota), so how does Tesla manage to get +20% profit on Model 3? Keep in mind their Model S (their first real production vehicle) was launched in 2012, 7 years ago without any previous know-how!
Their cars are not perfect, far from it, but they really managed to shape a whole industry a lot faster and a lot more than Toyota's HSD and I give him a lot of credit for this.
Losing money likely mostly in accounting terms because manufacturers cannot spread large fixed costs across more units.

Most rationale people are willing to pay a premium to purchase a BEV because they will save on fuel cost (if electricity charging is inexpensive enough) and the simplicity of the battery pack / motor vs. ICE / transmission will likely lower the total cost of ownership.

Toyota should just start offering BEVS in the higher priced models to protect its profit but it seems they are willing to do semi-mass market with the UX BEV as they need to push volumes of BEVs.
 

Will1991

Follower
Messages
129
Reaction score
187
Prius Prime is an impressive feat of engineering with incredible efficiency while keeping a reasonable price, it even can be bought with a solar roof for the traction battery, not even Tesla does this! Which for me makes it even worse regarding Toyota's delay to build more models and expand it for Lexus! It sound counterproductive.
Even in Europe, where PHEV's are only 1% of Toyota's sales which for me is an "half" truth, they represent around 30% of Prius sales, and this is a lot since PHEV is 30% more expensive!
 

internalaudit

Follower
Messages
113
Reaction score
118
Toyota must be really breaking grounds on its solid state battery technology. That would be one of the major reasons why it's not ramping up BEV production, except where it is required -- China now and by 2022 in the EU.

I've been reading up on the Honda Accord and Insight Hybrid on edmunds.com and during winter time, the 48-52 MPG EPA goes down as far as 35 MPG. I haven't seen that on our 16 RAV4H but that's because I am cheating by installing make shift grill blockers but then again Canada is a much colder country than most parts of the US.
 

mediumhot

Follower
Messages
162
Reaction score
227
Prius Prime is an impressive feat of engineering with incredible efficiency while keeping a reasonable price, it even can be bought with a solar roof for the traction battery, not even Tesla does this! Which for me makes it even worse regarding Toyota's delay to build more models and expand it for Lexus! It sound counterproductive.
Even in Europe, where PHEV's are only 1% of Toyota's sales which for me is an "half" truth, they represent around 30% of Prius sales, and this is a lot since PHEV is 30% more expensive!
Prime is kind of a lesson learned product since the previous Prius PHEV is the worst PHEV car ever made by some worldwide manufacturer unfortunately.
 

ssun30

Expert
Messages
1,107
Reaction score
1,948
That's an excellent question. I really don't know, and haven't heard any concrete rumors that such a move is even being considered by Toyota. It seems to me that the turbo + hybrid combination is just a needless extra layer of mechanical complexity. I'm sure a more engineering-savvy member of our community (such as @ssun30 ) could provide a better answer than mine.
The benefit of a turbo hybrid is the flexibility to create multiple tiers of output without changing a lot of hardware, say, a 2.0T hybrid can be configured to make anywhere between 250 and 400hp.

Toyota must be really breaking grounds on its solid state battery technology. That would be one of the major reasons why it's not ramping up BEV production, except where it is required -- China now and by 2022 in the EU.
The solid state breakthrough was overhyped, now the industry is targeting no earlier than 2025 for commercial production. Toyota was overly optimistic when they made the claim that they are close to commercializing solid state, and not long after they changed their narrative to be much more cautious due to safety and durability concerns with early prototypes.
 
Last edited:

isanatori

Follower
Messages
103
Reaction score
108
I don't get it... Supposedly everyone looses money on BEV's (even Toyota), so how does Tesla manage to get +20% profit on Model 3? Keep in mind their Model S (their first real production vehicle) was launched in 2012, 7 years ago without any previous know-how!
Their cars are not perfect, far from it, but they really managed to shape a whole industry a lot faster and a lot more than Toyota's HSD and I give him a lot of credit for this.
Tesla has nothing to do with battery production costs. Tesla is just another client of Panasonic. Panasonic is in the red, due to their joint venture with Tesla. It is a worrying situation, because despite the economic US war, it's happening at a time when market is considerably advantageous towards Japanese companies. Their relationship with Tesla is not healthy. Tesla is exploiting Panasonic and the latter can't afford to leave now, due to their huge business opening.

Nobody makes a profit from battery business. Tesla practices are similar to Germany's Dieselgate. Before dieselgate uncovered, everyone had been admiring ze Germans for their superior expertise. It's the case with Tesla nowadays.
The Tesla CEO is not just an eccentric persona, but he has all the signs of a Narcissist and he won't stop squeezing their partner up to the last drop. When nothing will be left to suck, he will leave the joint venture, blaming Panasonic for the mess.
BEVs success though is a welcomed topic in the agenda of politics, diplomacy etc for the obvious reasons. They want a BEV success story and Tesla is the ideal case to accomplish it.

Toyota is a Japanese company and serious competition. Because of that, Toyota is not immune to BEV malfunctions, which could be escalated into a new anti-Toyota backlash.
On the contrary, Tesla does not have to worry about such challenges. They are immune to loss of property and human casualties caused by BEV malfunctioning.
 
Last edited:

Ian Schmidt

Expert
Staff member
Moderator
Messages
1,418
Reaction score
2,300
There are allegations of multiple in-progress SEC, FBI, and OSHA investigations into Tesla and Musk, their latest quarterly report was a dumpster fire, and now they have to raise money or go out of business. Winter, as they say, is coming.

Also, this. Even the fanboys admit Autopilot has "barrier lust", but this appears to be one heck of an example. Yes, that's a metal highway barrier that went all the way through the car, front to back.

 
Last edited:

flexus

Follower
Messages
398
Reaction score
639
Toyota Gears Up To Become Global EV Systems Supplier
"Toyota’s investment into the Taiwanese motormaker is just one step on Toyota’s road to becoming the world’s leading supplier of EV components and systems. One of the hurdles slowing down widespread adaption of electric vehicles is a relative lack of scale, translating into high prices, translating into a further lack of scale. By making its components available to other automakers, Toyota plans to scale-up faster. "



    • Toyota will sell EV components to other OEMs
    • Toyota sweetens the deal by providing the IP of more than 24,000 patents for hybrid and fuel cell powertrains for free.
    • Through a joint-venture with Panasonic, Toyota will sell batteries and inverters.
    • Toyota continues to invest heavily into ride-hail services like Uber, or Grab, and it provides new entries with a ready-made cloud platform for such services.
https://www.thedrive.com/tech/27790/toyota-gears-up-to-become-global-ev-systems-supplier
I highly recommend investing few hundred in Toyota. They were with Honda only group posting growth in Q1. Of course decision of investment should be done after watching earnings livestream on Youtube May 8th at 13:15 JST.
 
Last edited:

isanatori

Follower
Messages
103
Reaction score
108
I honestly do not understand why Tesla gets barely any backlash despite all the problems they have.

Is it because the public have been brainwashed by the narcissist of narcissists a.k.a Elon Musk?
I have written it before. Our culture is based on Narcissism. It's the journalists powerhouses that siege wars by brainwashing public. We have a long tradition on deception. Charlemagne Goebbels live through us. We are playing dirty games.
Cultures don't change and history is making circles.

In Toyota SUA and airbag case media had got frenzy for a month. Takata was a huge company, yet it got extinct. Today, Toyota cars are involved in some 12+ million recall cases with human casualties, yet nobody mentions the case. Back then Toyota was a threat. Today it's not and German ZF is behind the airbag human casualties.

In Dieselgate, Journalists mentioning nothing about the 4 year continuous scheme, where recently more clever cheating devices found in German diesel cars. European Union is ACTIVELY INVOLVED, supporting the German lobby openly.
There is no fair competition.
Tesla has joined the group.
 
Last edited:

ssun30

Expert
Messages
1,107
Reaction score
1,948
I don't like how this forum is becoming so much anti-Tesla...they are a controversial company but have done more good than bad.

On the other hand, the news above really shows that Toyota is looking at the much bigger picture. They want a healthy supply chain before making the risky move, which is why they wanted a gradual shift to hybrid then plug-ins and finally BEVs and FCVs.

I will give you guys another industry insight as to why today's BEV rush is an irresponsible move. Besides the obvious problem with safety and durability of current generation Li-ion batteries, there is an even bigger problem that is often overlooked by 'environmentalists': we have no idea how to deal with li-ion batteries when they are dead. Yes, many large-scale energy storage systems reuse Prius and Tesla batteries to give them extra life, but eventually these break. Theoretically there is no limit to how many cycles li-ion batteries can go through if we charge and discharge them in a smart fashion, but in practice they still degrade over time. There is no current consensus on how we can effectively recycle these batteries (meaning an automated process at a lower cost than making new ones). If we simply dump them into landfill, it will be an environmental disaster.

The same goes for permanent magnet motors. Most of the rare earth elements used in them are not recycled: we crush them and use them to pave roads. That is a laughable waste of resources with very vulnerable supply. The current REE market is in a state of 'false stability', meaning the low prices are false lows and for a BEV market ten times today's size, another REE crisis will strike and strike much harder than 2011.
 

Gecko

Expert
Staff member
Administrator
Messages
2,472
Reaction score
4,592
Not sure if anyone read Automobile's interview with Johan de Nysschen, but it was very insightful and had a lot of great insight on BEVs, profitability, PR and the future outlook. It's a long interview but well worth the read, IMO. Here are a few excerpts relevant to this discussion:

Automobile: It feels like car companies are operating today on two almost diametrically opposed prerogatives. The stock market, which is all-important, wants companies to be all over autonomy and electric vehicles and the future. At the same time, it wants them to deliver record profits now. Any interest in market share for market share’s sake or having a diverse model range or having a global footprint has gone out the window.

Johan: The stock market’s short-term focus is troublesome not just for the auto industry, but also across all sectors. It is problematic. Because it really does force management to optimize the short-run results. When you do that, then you can just steer for the best possible long-term outcome that ensues from all the short-term optimization. If you are a leader now at any one of the world’s auto companies, you are facing a set of circumstances, which in terms of the complexity, probably exceeds that that’s ever gone before.

You have to manage your conventional car portfolio with entries that are developed to a point of being highly capable and competitive in terms of both product substance and cost. To allow you to compete on the world’s stage. And those vehicles have to generate profits. On the other hand, you also now have to face the reality that the industry is experiencing incredible disruption that’s primarily driven by technology and advanced connectivity. The increased connectivity speeds and ability to take computing off-board is transforming the automobile and its use case.

You also have to deal, obviously, with artificial intelligence and autonomous-vehicle technology. You have to get your arms around developing the capabilities, the technical ability, and competitive products in the zero-emission space, an area where there is still very little consumer demand.

A: It’s growing, however.

JdN: It’s growing, but companies are having to commit billions, and none of these EV entries would pass the acid test applied for project approval in their conventional portfolios. They will all fail miserably.

A: By what measure?

JdN: They don’t pay, so CEOs are having to take these high-risk investment decisions.

A: With not even a glimmer of a guarantee of return.

JdN: Exactly. But you know that if you don’t do it, you’re in trouble. But if you do it, it’s also going to dilute the very things that you’re measured on by the corporate quarterly results. You have to pay for balance. You cannot be all things for all people, and no company has unlimited resources. Be they engineering resources, be they financial ones.

I think companies are being forced to make some trade-offs. They have to continue investment in their conventional portfolio, but contain that investment to only product type securities and segments that are putting money in the bank. And with the shifting consumer demand away from sedans, that pure rational logic is what has seen companies like Ford, for example, decide to vacate certain passenger-car segments. But doing that enables them to focus on the conventional segments that will make the most money.

Manufacturers will have to decide. They can’t double up their investment and both maintain the conventional portfolio and develop all these new-technology vehicles. That’s because the conventionally powered cars are still going to be around a long time. People almost get offended when I say this. But people tend to think of the world and define it by their own experience, their own environment. If you’re sitting in California, it’s very easy to imagine that the EVs already here and that there’s this global demand and you just need more charging stations. Go to the Midwest—good luck with that idea. Remember, the auto companies all have global footprints and their geographies transcend the borders of the United States. There are many markets that are far less mature than even the U.S.’s embryonic EV market. You therefore have to still imagine that you’re going to be investing in internal-combustion-engine vehicles until 2035, or perhaps even beyond. So that’s a given.

[On the other hand,] if you want to play in China, you have to, quite clearly, make sure that you are able to take into account all of these regulatory requirements.

Full interview: https://www.automobilemag.com/news/johan-de-nysschen-interview-gm-cadillac-autonomy/
 

internalaudit

Follower
Messages
113
Reaction score
118
Before I decided a Tesla Model 3 wasn't for me, I visited the Tesla Motor Club forum quite frequently (2016-2017). One German member provided some good explanation why the German car makers were hesitant to transition to BEVs sooner than what regulators require (by 2022) of them.

Many of the German factories are unionized so with BEVs, there will be a lot fewer parts to work with (thousands of parts in an ICE's and auto transmissions versus a few hundred with motors and battery packs (quite consistent in terms of raw material even with hundreds of battery cells). With a unionized work force, work shifts are not going to be as flexible and so labor costs are going to remain independent of volume of parts/cars made.

That was a very good point he made and fast forward three years, we can see the Germans are not going to be releasing a lot of BEV models until 2021 at the earliest but by 2022, they really don't have much choice.

Toyota's assembly plants in the US are non-unionized, it is likely that way in most part of the world too and with the Toyota, the leader in LEAN car production (lots of assembly flexibility), I am quite confident that it can easily leap frog a lot of competitors who are already offering BEVs, mostly in limited quantity and close to full MSRP and with many compromises at least to me (no AWD, no TMS, no heated steering wheel, over simplistic interior design, short driving range, too much premium).

For many members of Lexus Enthusiast, we are already currently driving a Toyota or Lexus vehicle(s) so much so that most of us have the luxury to wait for a Toyota/Lexus BEV. I know I will wait for a Lexus BEV AWD sedan that will hopefully come by 2025. :)

We have an 02 Civic that has some wheel bearing issues that I don't want to spend on so that's pretty much sitting driving. Resale value - $0.

11 Accord coupe with no issues. Resale value - $8-9k CAD.

16 RAV4 with no issues and extended warranty until 2023. Resale value - $25-27k CAD.

There's no point getting rid of any of these cars until there are more n0-comprise BEV sedans on the market. I just look at the UX250h specs in Canada and pretty much everything I want in my next car is included as standard (LSS, heated steering wheel, heated seats, auto dimming rearview camera, e-AWD, pretty nice interior), only the handling and power probably leave more to be desired lol which is why I want a BEV sedan and not a CUV. :)
 
Last edited:
Top