Official Lexus Future Product & Powertrain Megathread

[Bensonbunny1975]

TX550h+ is reportedly dead. Oh how far we have fallen.

When was that announced? It's a good gateway drug to the TZ . .

 

[ssun30]

This kind of large family vehicle makes a good candidate for an EREV. Retiring the PHEV is a good move since the battery pack just doesn't have enough power for a 2.5 ton+ vehicle. It's okay for a RAV4 or NX PHEV, but the TX550h+/Century SUV already take over 10 seconds to do 0-60mph/0-100kph. The general issue with PHEVs is that you only get half the power in EV mode and the battery would still be discharging at an unhealthy C-rate constantly (they would frequently go to 2-3C just doing gentle acceleration in urban driving).

Chinese market EREVs seem to converge around 1.5L 70-80kW + 50-60kWh for mid-size crossovers and 2.0L 100-110kW + 70kWh for full-size. A "TZ450e+" could use the base BZ4X's 57.7 kWh battery. Primary power comes from the rear eAxle with 165kW, and a 90kW front motor-generator could be used to either provide eAWD (255kW total, same as TZ450e), or charge the battery using a 1.5L ICE. 75-80kW is more than enough for sustainer mode and could maintain 120km/h on a 5% gradient continuously. They could go for a 2.0L 100-110kW generator if they want to ensure performance in sustainer mode. In daily driving the battery would only use ~1C so the SOC range could be expanded. I think this could actually be a very successful model in the NA market since there's no direct competition at all. It solves range anxiety for good while providing a much more useful range for daily commute than PHEVs.

 

[DarkSpace6383]

Tbh I don’t think it looks bad. I like the fact that it’s instantly recognizable as a Lexus, instead of being like the new ES or IS where you have to look hard to find any Lexus design elements in the exterior.

I feel like if you removed the badge you genuinely couldn't tell from the rear.

 

[DarkSpace6383]

This kind of large family vehicle makes a good candidate for an EREV. Retiring the PHEV is a good move since the battery pack just doesn't have enough power for a 2.5 ton+ vehicle. It's okay for a RAV4 or NX PHEV, but the TX550h+/Century SUV already take over 10 seconds to do 0-60mph/0-100kph. The general issue with PHEVs is that you only get half the power in EV mode and the battery would still be discharging at an unhealthy C-rate constantly (they would frequently go to 2-3C just doing gentle acceleration in urban driving).

Chinese market EREVs seem to converge around 1.5L 70-80kW + 50-60kWh for mid-size crossovers and 2.0L 100-110kW + 70kWh for full-size. A "TZ450e+" could use the base BZ4X's 57.7 kWh battery. Primary power comes from the rear eAxle with 165kW, and a 90kW front motor-generator could be used to either provide eAWD (255kW total, same as TZ450e), or charge the battery using a 1.5L ICE. 75-80kW is more than enough for sustainer mode and could maintain 120km/h on a 5% gradient continuously. They could go for a 2.0L 100-110kW generator if they want to ensure performance in sustainer mode. In daily driving the battery would only use ~1C so the SOC range could be expanded. I think this could actually be a very successful model in the NA market since there's no direct competition at all. It solves range anxiety for good while providing a much more useful range for daily commute than PHEVs.

The TX550h+ hits 60 in under 6 seconds. An EREV is definitely an option, but I don't think its one where Toyota should feel the need to spend time developing it. solid state should hit by the end of the decade, which will be superior. They should continue to invest in hybrid 6cylinder technology that can target 33+ mpg on efficient trims.

 

[Ali Manai]

An

The TX550h+ hits 60 in under 6 seconds. An EREV is definitely an option, but I don't think its one where Toyota should feel the need to spend time developing it. solid state should hit by the end of the decade, which will be superior. They should continue to invest in hybrid 6cylinder technology that can target 33+ mpg on efficient trims.

erev LS would be cool though with 450 hp

 

[spwolf]

This kind of large family vehicle makes a good candidate for an EREV. Retiring the PHEV is a good move since the battery pack just doesn't have enough power for a 2.5 ton+ vehicle. It's okay for a RAV4 or NX PHEV, but the TX550h+/Century SUV already take over 10 seconds to do 0-60mph/0-100kph. The general issue with PHEVs is that you only get half the power in EV mode and the battery would still be discharging at an unhealthy C-rate constantly (they would frequently go to 2-3C just doing gentle acceleration in urban driving).

Chinese market EREVs seem to converge around 1.5L 70-80kW + 50-60kWh for mid-size crossovers and 2.0L 100-110kW + 70kWh for full-size. A "TZ450e+" could use the base BZ4X's 57.7 kWh battery. Primary power comes from the rear eAxle with 165kW, and a 90kW front motor-generator could be used to either provide eAWD (255kW total, same as TZ450e), or charge the battery using a 1.5L ICE. 75-80kW is more than enough for sustainer mode and could maintain 120km/h on a 5% gradient continuously. They could go for a 2.0L 100-110kW generator if they want to ensure performance in sustainer mode. In daily driving the battery would only use ~1C so the SOC range could be expanded. I think this could actually be a very successful model in the NA market since there's no direct competition at all. It solves range anxiety for good while providing a much more useful range for daily commute than PHEVs.

I just dont see EERVs being necessary with better batteries and more available chargers.

As you hinted, quite often they are undersized for smaller consumption so you can not maintain higher speeds on engine alone, so at 150kmh highway run, you are needing to refill both gas tank and ev battery.

That seems insane to me.

Added cost, complexity and maintenance with large battery is not going to work 5 years from now.
Currently it is a good way for ChDM to avoid extra taxes in Europe.

 

[DarkSpace6383]

I just dont see EERVs being necessary with better batteries and more available chargers.

As you hinted, quite often they are undersized for smaller consumption so you can not maintain higher speeds on engine alone, so at 150kmh highway run, you are needing to refill both gas tank and ev battery.

That seems insane to me.

Added cost, complexity and maintenance with large battery is not going to work 5 years from now.
Currently it is a good way for ChDM to avoid extra taxes in Europe.

Agreed. Focus on Solid State and Self-charging hybrids with sustainable e-fuels (partner with Porsche for this), and then Hydrogen for select markets. PHEVs are an in-between thing that's heavily compromised, and the business case for EREVs only make sense so long as charging and range are heavily limited (maybe the next 7-10 years).

 

[CRSKTN]

Death clock on the TX, calling it.

 

[DarkSpace6383]

Death clock on the TX, calling it.

They are definitely pushing back the full ev by 2030 thing. Toyota is betting on a multi-path strategy. The TX isn't going ANYWHERE anytime soon.

 

[DarkSpace6383]

Can we expect a production version of LF ZL to come? Could be a very nice prospect with solid state batteries. Hoping for that and 7 seats to properly fight something like LUCID Gravity.

 

[Falcon]

LS Coupe concept

 

[ssun30]

I just dont see EERVs being necessary with better batteries and more available chargers.

As you hinted, quite often they are undersized for smaller consumption so you can not maintain higher speeds on engine alone, so at 150kmh highway run, you are needing to refill both gas tank and ev battery.

That seems insane to me.

Added cost, complexity and maintenance with large battery is not going to work 5 years from now.
Currently it is a good way for ChDM to avoid extra taxes in Europe.

Who's doing 150km/h cruise on a highway?

A brick shaped SUV consumes 40-50kW at 120km/h. Add a 6% gradient which is the legal limit in many regions and consumption goes up to 80-100kW. The only thing the sustainer isn't sized for is towing. But who's towing with an EV anyway?

EREV is the optimal middle ground for full size, where the weight and cost savings pays for itself. At that size class you are looking at 130kWh+ for a competitive pure BEV. And a PHEV would need a battery so large it becomes a de facto EREV.

Even with the best charging network in the world, whenever a ChDM car gets an EREV option, the take rate for the BEV option drops below 50%. People WILL pay for no range anxiety even with charging available everywhere. Just ask them about charging during the Golden Week and you'll see why.

 

[ssun30]

Agreed. Focus on Solid State and Self-charging hybrids with sustainable e-fuels (partner with Porsche for this), and then Hydrogen for select markets. PHEVs are an in-between thing that's heavily compromised, and the business case for EREVs only make sense so long as charging and range are heavily limited (maybe the next 7-10 years).

Solid state is vaporware at this point. Every few years since 2017 some random manufacturer soft launch a "solid state" battery while announcing full commercialization is "just a couple of years away". And yet there is exactly zero mass market EV with a SSB as of 2026. Toyota themselves pushed back SSB timeline from 2021 to 2025 to 2027 and now 2030. Toyota didn't even deliver on their 2024 roadmap: they were expecting BZ4X to get a 800km range high density monopolar NCM battery by 2026 and 1000km bipolar NCM by 2027. What we actually get is yet another early 2020s-ish battery tech for the refreshed BZ4X and Highlander/TZ.

No sane car manufacturer is betting their EV strategy on the magical SSB. They have to plan for supply chain reality and go with whatever is available now, not magic tech 5-10 years down the road.

 

[FPV]

View attachment 9973

This plan appears to be holding true, therefore a new Lexus coupe will appear next year (at least as an EV)?

 

[DarkSpace6383]

To add insult to injury, while Lexus is cancelling their racing program, V8 coupe and is sending the LX into irrelevancy, Audi is bringing a proper full-size SUV (which looks quite competent) and is also bringing back the R8 on the Temarario platform, with a GT3 variant likely to follow suit.

 

[spwolf]

Who's doing 150km/h cruise on a highway?

A brick shaped SUV consumes 40-50kW at 120km/h. Add a 6% gradient which is the legal limit in many regions and consumption goes up to 80-100kW. The only thing the sustainer isn't sized for is towing. But who's towing with an EV anyway?

EREV is the optimal middle ground for full size, where the weight and cost savings pays for itself. At that size class you are looking at 130kWh+ for a competitive pure BEV. And a PHEV would need a battery so large it becomes a de facto EREV.

Even with the best charging network in the world, whenever a ChDM car gets an EREV option, the take rate for the BEV option drops below 50%. People WILL pay for no range anxiety even with charging available everywhere. Just ask them about charging during the Golden Week and you'll see why.

Europeans.

Otherwise, why would you need EREV?

I have read comments about C10 EREV using both fuel and electricity on long highway trips, so you have to recharge both with external plugs. It is idiotic.

If you are already putting 60kwh battery in vehicle, and driving at 120kmh max, your consumption will be small enough to go 400KM on highway, which is plenty. Or 500km in the city.

Your EREV stats are not a fact at all. PHEVs have trailed growth of BEVs for years, and only reason they have any growth in Europe is because of no extra duty on phevs vs extra duty on BEVs for Chinese manufacturers.

 

[DarkSpace6383]

Europeans.

Otherwise, why would you need EREV?

I have read comments about C10 EREV using both fuel and electricity on long highway trips, so you have to recharge both with external plugs. It is idiotic.

If you are already putting 60kwh battery in vehicle, and driving at 120kmh max, your consumption will be small enough to go 400KM on highway, which is plenty. Or 500km in the city.

Your EREV stats are not a fact at all. PHEVs have trailed growth of BEVs for years, and only reason they have any growth in Europe is because of no extra duty on phevs vs extra duty on BEVs for Chinese manufacturers.

This. I think in the future the 2 dominant paths (excluding hydrogen) will be self-charging hybrids on 100 percent renewable fuels and full BEVs utilizing solid state batteries. In-between compromises like PHEVs and EREVs will probably go away, and so will 100 percent combustion. Hydrogen is honestly anyone's guess.

 

[Levi]

Europeans.

Europeans driving in Germany only. Everywhere else it is limited to 120 or 130 km/h.

 

[ssun30]

Your EREV stats are not a fact at all. PHEVs have trailed growth of BEVs for years, and only reason they have any growth in Europe is because of no extra duty on phevs vs extra duty on BEVs for Chinese manufacturers.

Here are ChDM take rates of models with both EREV and BEV options. Keep in mind my context here is entirely for the large-to-full size market, which is what the TZ is competing in. I never claimed PHEV/EREV have higher overall sales than BEV. You are putting words in my mouth.

Denza (EREV/PHEV vs. BEV)
D9: 82101 vs. 7263 (92%/8%)
N9: PHEV-only (100%)
Z9/Z9GT: 7370 vs. 1328 (85%/15%)
N8L/N7: EREV-only (100%)

HIMA
AITO M9: 103670 vs. 13464 (88%/12%)
AITO M8: 123440 vs. 26480 (82%/18%)
AITO M7: 109531 vs. 11887 (90%/10%)
AITO M5: 25418 vs. 10753 (70%/30%)
Luxeed R7: 22395 vs. 58017 (28%/72%)
Luxxed V9: EREV-only (100%)
Stelato S9/S9T: 22256 vs. 13223 (61%/39%)
Maextro S800: 10907 vs. 1017 (91%/9%)

 

[DarkSpace6383]

Here are ChDM take rates of models with both EREV and BEV options. Keep in mind my context here is entirely for the large-to-full size market, which is what the TZ is competing in. I never claimed PHEV/EREV have higher overall sales than BEV. You are putting words in my mouth.

Denza (EREV/PHEV vs. BEV)
D9: 82101 vs. 7263 (92%/8%)
N9: PHEV-only (100%)
Z9/Z9GT: 7370 vs. 1328 (85%/15%)
N8L/N7: EREV-only (100%)

HIMA
AITO M9: 103670 vs. 13464 (88%/12%)
AITO M8: 123440 vs. 26480 (82%/18%)
AITO M7: 109531 vs. 11887 (90%/10%)
AITO M5: 25418 vs. 10753 (70%/30%)
Luxeed R7: 22395 vs. 58017 (28%/72%)
Luxxed V9: EREV-only (100%)
Stelato S9/S9T: 22256 vs. 13223 (61%/39%)
Maextro S800: 10907 vs. 1017 (91%/9%)

I think it is a given that Lexus's current offerings are extraordinarily uncompetitive in China (ES and TZ), and this will not change until we get Solid State batteries, better tech, and also a better design.