Official Lexus Future Powertrain & Product Discussion

spwolf

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The Crown sedan is discontinued after 2022 and the successor will be based on GA-K, which means GA-N is officially dead as well. So Mazda must have developed its own platform.
successor being a CUV from that mag article?

I am pretty sure Crown wont be discontinued in 2022 as that article mentioned, because they just had a refresh. That does not mean that they wont do it in 2024 or 2025, but why would "successor" be a CUV is beyond me.
 

Gecko

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The Crown sedan is discontinued after 2022 and the successor will be based on GA-K, which means GA-N is officially dead as well. So Mazda must have developed its own platform.
I hadn’t read that... but remember us discussing something similar earlier this year. Interesting!
 

maiaramdan

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The Crown sedan is discontinued after 2022 and the successor will be based on GA-K, which means GA-N is officially dead as well. So Mazda must have developed its own platform.
Both Crown & Land cruiser won't be dead
They're Toyota
Those are the longest names in all Asia and from the top 5 around the world
It's insane move
And they all "the top TMC" know it
I have a confidence to say that we may see the death of Lexus because of Crown & Land cruiser
 

Levi

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Wait a bit, there will be no more Avalon and Camry anymore, so no ES. The sedan is on the brink of death. In Europe the 4x4 too.
 

shizhi

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Wait a bit, there will be no more Avalon and Camry anymore, so no ES. The sedan is on the brink of death. In Europe the 4x4 too.
They will continue, and sales in the Chinese market are also performing very well, especially ES. Its sales in China have surpassed those in the United States.
As the market still has demand for sedans, they have developed the new Allion in China.
 
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spwolf

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Wait a bit, there will be no more Avalon and Camry anymore, so no ES. The sedan is on the brink of death. In Europe the 4x4 too.
Those 3 cars will probably sell >1m copies around the world this year.

While sedan sales in USA dropped, this Avalon is highest selling ever because it started sales in China where these large sedans are popular.

So cars like Corolla, Camry and Avalon will not go away worldwide, but certainly regional production will be adjusted so for instance Rav4 can be produced from 250,000 to 500,000 examples in NA while Camry can drop from 500,000 to 250,000.
 

Gecko

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This is just my .02, but put bluntly, the world is changing and we have to (1) realize Toyota is a business and wants to make a profit, and (2) be thankful that Toyota will probably have the most robust sedan portfolio going forward of any automaker which will still provide more options for sedan buyers.

Electric is only expanding and other automotive brands are cutting investment in sedans to focus R&D in EVs and SUVs. While RWD is dying and Toyota's core is FWD sedans, there is still some reason to be excited about them in the future with new AWD technologies and electronic assistance through things like E-Axle, hybrids, "Prime" and more.

GS had to die because it's more logical to consolidate resources on and sell ES, RC is probably next to go, and IS will either change direction or be killed off as well. As I mentioned earlier, Mazda's new architecture is not RWD contrary to rumors, but likely a modular FWD platform reworked to accommodate their new I6 and added AWD. That puts the rumors of RWD IS and RC via Mazda collaboration off the table. It's clear that Toyota's waning investment in RWD means the days are numbered, but it is my hope that the IS name can be salvaged somehow.

Regarding the future of the IS specifically, while we are all enthusiasts and want RWD, you have to ask yourself what the business case looks like for an eTNGA-based AWD plugin hybrid entry level sedan with 300-450hp, or a RWD one with 300hp and 20MPG on gas. The answer is pretty simple, and I think even enthusiasts will get excited about the former. I mentioned this in the LS thread, and it's probably dreaming, but I wish the future state of Lexus sedans would go something like this:
  • IS should remain the same size, roughly... an entry level sedan product has global appeal if Lexus spec'ed it with the right powertrains for international markets. Moves to eTNGA or TNGA-K with standard AWD and electrification. Basing it on TNGA-K or eTNGA makes it an easier business case as it can share resources with Camry, ES, Avalon, etc.
  • ES should be more truly midsize, instead of small full-size. Similar to 5er/E/A6, sized like the Camry. This would give the LS some breathing room as Lexus' largest and flagship sedan, whereas some current LS shoppers are walking away with an ES because it has more rear seat space and headroom.
  • ES-L built on the larger/longer TNGA-K "Avalon" platform for China (very much as the ES exists now).
  • LS needs to be re-engineered and re-packaged as the current car is way too big/long to have so little interior space with a V6 motor. Stays full size with more interior room, probably RWD on GA-L for one more generation.
This way, IS/ES/ES-L become very closely related and share costs, Lexus can maintain a 3 sedan lineup with much less investment than they currently make, and the ES will give the LS some breathing room as a flagship.

The big question, as I have been asking/speculating about for months, is what happens to GA-L? It is nearly impossible to make a business case for that platform going forward unless they switch the Century onto it and then launch the LF-1 on it as well. LF-1 would become the highest volume execution on LF-1 overnight, but it seems to be taking too long now. If the Crown is dead or even sees one more generation, it's clear to me that GA-N is at the end of the line and being replaced by GA-K/eTNGA, leaving only GA-L as Toyota's proprietary RWD platform.
 

maiaramdan

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I have 2 questions
1) Even if GA-N is dead why can't Toyota put the next generation Centuries and Crowns on GA-L ?
2) even luxury automaker is doing downsizing and we just see what Mercedes CEO said that he will return small and yet more profitable, so why it will be good for Benz and bad for Lexus?
 

Gecko

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I have 2 questions
1) Even if GA-N is dead why can't Toyota put the next generation Centuries and Crowns on GA-L ?
2) even luxury automaker is doing downsizing and we just see what Mercedes CEO said that he will return small and yet more profitable, so why it will be good for Benz and bad for Lexus?
1. They could - it makes the most sense, especially for the Century, but we are hearing crown may move to become an SUV nameplate now.
2. Can you explain a bit more, or provide a link? I don't follow exactly.
 

ssun30

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@Gecko The whole idea of replacing GS with ES in ChDM is that they don't need to stretch it to make it compete well with LWB competition. For some reason Lexus is very opposed to the idea of 'stretching'. They are already competing extremely well with the ES as-is. I think the logical next step for them is the Allion-based new "HS" or whatever it should be called.

As for a Camry-size ES, the problem is that the Camry itself is very large and has a very spacious interior. The XV70 is 4885 mm long which was considered 'large-size' a few years ago. There's not a lot to downsize by returning ES to Camry-size. The real solutions are repackaging the LS to be a more traditional luxury sedan or turning it into something much more radical like the LF-30.

So instead of thinking about what their sedan lineup will look like in the future. What we should really be thinking about is their car lineup. I expect them to come up with some very different body styles for the IS/LS successor, while the 'HS'/ES duo remain the only sedans to keep feeding ChDM. You are right that the future of IS/LS will not be traditional longitudinal-RWD ICE-based sedans we are accustomed to.

Anyway, we should move these to another discussion thread.
 

Gecko

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@Gecko The whole idea of replacing GS with ES in ChDM is that they don't need to stretch it to make it compete well with LWB competition. For some reason Lexus is very opposed to the idea of 'stretching'. They are already competing extremely well with the ES as-is. I think the logical next step for them is the Allion-based new "HS" or whatever it should be called.

As for a Camry-size ES, the problem is that the Camry itself is very large and has a very spacious interior. The XV70 is 4885 mm long which was considered 'large-size' a few years ago. There's not a lot to downsize by returning ES to Camry-size. The real solutions are repackaging the LS to be a more traditional luxury sedan or turning it into something much more radical like the LF-30.

So instead of thinking about what their sedan lineup will look like in the future. What we should really be thinking about is their car lineup. I expect them to come up with some very different body styles for the IS/LS successor, while the 'HS'/ES duo remain the only sedans to keep feeding ChDM. You are right that the future of IS/LS will not be traditional longitudinal-RWD ICE-based sedans we are accustomed to.

Anyway, we should move these to another discussion thread.
My primary thought around ES/ES-L differentiation was for some markets like USA or even Europe where a true midsize sedan is still desirable and ES is a bit large, and that would give some breathing room between ES and LS which is currently lacking. I think the ES would stay as-is for China, as it's been successful there obviously.

Something like: Chinese ES = Avalon size
US/European/JDM ES = Camry size

The main difference I've experienced between Camry and ES is rear seat legroom, even though there isn't much of an overall length difference between the two. ES rear is so spacious that it is very (too) appealing to some LS shoppers here in USA, so I was thinking that using the Camry sizing would help.

The other option would be that the IS becomes the Lexus equivalent of the Camry while the ES remains the Lexus equivalent of the Avalon. That could work too, but as you point, a few inches here and there isn't much and may not warrant the extension of the IS after this generation.
 

maiaramdan

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Levi

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Daimler will shrink, but the TTV8 PHEV making 800 PS will still be there, so customers will desire and buy all those other crappy benzes. That is the big difference.
 

Gecko

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1- the Japanese customers won't get angry if the Crown turn to SUV like LF-1 with keeping the FR, but they won't buy a Crown sedan with FF

2- https://www.carscoops.com/2020/11/daimler-boss-says-company-will-shrink-during-next-five-years/
1. Assumes that JDM customers even know or care about vehicles being FWD, RWD or AWD. Is that true? I know that here in USA, 95% of customers don't know if their car is front wheel, rear wheel, all wheel, 4 cyl, turbo, V6, etc. I think a lot of what makes a product look and feel special is the design (interior and exterior), so it might just be me, but I think there's definitely a way to make it work. From a design perspective, look at the new TLX with a long hood and short rear deck lid. Good looking FWD cars with nice proportions are possible. Also when you move to CUVs, the tangible benefits of RWD vs. FWD with AWD start to fade away when you approach 7+ inches of ground clearance.

2. While we rag on Lexus for it, they have largely stayed away from entry level sedans, four door coupes, sports cars and niche products, whereas BMW and Mercedes are filled with them. With the passenger car market falling away, the overlap in products like CLA/C/A, CLS/E/S, and sports cars will have to be reduced. Lexus does not have that problem. ES/RX/NX as value players based on Toyotas gives Lexus tremendous upside with lower starting costs, meaning Lexus can splurge on products like LC and not take as much risk. I think that within 5 years, Mercedes' portfolio will look more like Lexus: fewer sedans, a coupe or two, and mostly SUVs. At this point, there is almost zero case or reason to invest in anything but CUVs.
 
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