Lexus sales in Japan

Joaquin Ruhi

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spwolf

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Lexus UX has performed extremely well. Sales of the first month were 8800 vehicles. Combined with 5500 preorders sales are 14300.
Half of UX's were F-sport grade and 80% hybrids.
are we sure that i tis total of 14300 or are preorders counted in 8800? Both numbers are OK, but 14300 would be pretty telling number and great for Lexus.


Lexus sales in Japan are very front loaded, as rest of the vehicles sales are. TMC manages that for rest of their brands by having many different versions of similar vehicles and updating them all the time... so there is literally something new every month.

This is very hard to do for Lexus, so you end up with LS selling 2k per month fist month and then dropping to 300 after 12 months. NX is one of the few models that can keep selling at high steady number for longer time.

All that being said, 900 is very big number on its own, it would represent 20% of Lexus sales prior to it, so it is not a low ball number. Their target sales number is something all of the cars reach after lets say 12-16 months on the market.
 

flexus

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are we sure that i tis total of 14300 or are preorders counted in 8800? Both numbers are OK, but 14300 would be pretty telling number and great for Lexus.
UX target sale is 900 and ES 350 these are new models to Japanese market. So if Lexus manages sell as targeted sales will increase 15000.

Lexus sales in Japan are very front loaded, as rest of the vehicles sales are. TMC manages that for rest of their brands by having many different versions of similar vehicles and updating them all the time... so there is literally something new every month.

This is very hard to do for Lexus, so you end up with LS selling 2k per month fist month and then dropping to 300 after 12 months. NX is one of the few models that can keep selling at high steady number for longer time.

All that being said, 900 is very big number on its own, it would represent 20% of Lexus sales prior to it, so it is not a low ball number. Their target sales number is something all of the cars reach after lets say 12-16 months on the market.
 

spwolf

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UX target sale is 900 and ES 350 these are new models to Japanese market. So if Lexus manages sell as targeted sales will increase 15000.
yeah but others are dropping... LS for instance. So it does not work that way.

As you noted, Lexus sales are down 27% for November and up 26% for the year... this is because LS started at really high numbers and now dropped heavily and that is how Japanese market works.
 

flexus

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yeah but others are dropping... LS for instance. So it does not work that way.

As you noted, Lexus sales are down 27% for November and up 26% for the year... this is because LS started at really high numbers and now dropped heavily and that is how Japanese market works.
I meant that sales will increase 15000 compared to target sales figures not the actual sales figures.
 

mikeavelli

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It is of my opinion every time a car debuts in Japan their targets are way to low and then they announce sales are up 5000 billion. Not sure how forecasting can be so off every time. Then things settle down.

Any change to see what the Germans are doing YTD?
 

flexus

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It is of my opinion every time a car debuts in Japan their targets are way to low and then they announce sales are up 5000 billion. Not sure how forecasting can be so off every time. Then things settle down.

Any change to see what the Germans are doing YTD?
YTD 2018 January to November

Audi 24048 -4,9%
BMW 44398 -5,6%
Mercedes-Benz 59023 -3,3%
 

krew

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It is of my opinion every time a car debuts in Japan their targets are way to low and then they announce sales are up 5000 billion. Not sure how forecasting can be so off every time. Then things settle down.
Manufactured hype? Artificial scarcity?

I was told Japan lowers their estimates to force other regions to increase their allotments -- every vehicle has a global sales target, and TMC wants to oversell. But I don't know how much truth there is to that theory.
 

spwolf

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Manufactured hype? Artificial scarcity?

I was told Japan lowers their estimates to force other regions to increase their allotments -- every vehicle has a global sales target, and TMC wants to oversell. But I don't know how much truth there is to that theory.
none... if you dont order from factory in time, then factory will not be able to produce the vehicles in time (TMC). I know for a fact that when our regional sales/planning people made bad/low predictions about 2006 Rav4, we were not able to fulfill those orders for very, very long time.

It is simply due to their estimated numbers not being for 1st month orders, but rather for 2nd year of the vehicle in the market... ie when initial demand subsidised to "normal" pace.

95% of vehicles actually go down to estimated numbers after first year on the market. Only NX continued selling over estimated numbers and that is why they still had waiting times for it in Japan, just few months ago.
 

flexus

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Waiting tume for high demand models in Japan. Data was updated 28.12.2018

ES300H 7 months
RC300H 6 months
CT200H 4 months
UX250H 3.5 months
 

krew

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Waiting tume for high demand models in Japan. Data was updated 28.12.2018

ES300H 7 months
RC300H 6 months
CT200H 4 months
UX250H 3.5 months
Hey flexus, where did you get this data?
 

spwolf

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Waiting tume for high demand models in Japan. Data was updated 28.12.2018

ES300H 7 months
RC300H 6 months
CT200H 4 months
UX250H 3.5 months
as we can see, those are all models with recent major or minor facelifts... only CT200h is interesting, i guess it is due to the special model?
Otherwise for instance last year LS had very long waiting time and first few months it sold >2k, while now it is likely in "target" numbers.
 

flexus

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Most registered Lexus in December was UX250H with 767 units ranking 47th. Most popular Lexus in 2018 was NX300H with 8712 registrations with an increase of 85,1%.
 

Will1991

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as we can see, those are all models with recent major or minor facelifts... only CT200h is interesting, i guess it is due to the special model?
Otherwise for instance last year LS had very long waiting time and first few months it sold >2k, while now it is likely in "target" numbers.
It's the entry point for a well established manufacturer with good overall construction. And even with some age it still is (at least for me) a gorgeous car, to be honest, the only reason I haven't bought one on this last facelift is due to the engine not being updated for the current HSD 1.8L and since I'm making the effort of the wait trying to move directly for a BEV.
Here in Portugal the fuel is around 1,73 USD per liter.
 
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