Lexus Future Product & Powertrain Megathread (II)

[ssun30]

My prediction is a huge supply chain crisis in the EV market (especially for BEV) in the 2024-2028 timeframe that will result in a significantly more practical BEV adoption schedule (for a very complex web of reasons). It will far dwarf the 2021-2024 chip crisis we are experiencing now.

The original "30 by 30" (30% BEV adoption in 2030) goal by an industry consortium was already ambitious enough, but then some politicians used that to their own advantage and they got in an arms race to propose the most radical BEV plans for votes. I'm thinking "15% by 35" and "50% by 50" as more likely outcomes globally.

 

[nt01]

My prediction is a huge supply chain crisis in the EV market (especially for BEV) in the 2024-2028 timeframe that will result in a significantly more practical BEV adoption schedule (for a very complex web of reasons). It will far dwarf the 2021-2024 chip crisis we are experiencing now.

The original "30 by 30" (30% BEV adoption in 2030) goal by an industry consortium was already ambitious enough, but then some politicians used that to their own advantage and they got in an arms race to propose the most radical BEV plans for votes. I'm thinking "15% by 35" and "50% by 50" as more likely outcomes globally.

European car buyer has a range of gasoline and diesel engines to choose from for a long time. Why not just offer FCEV and BEV base on whatever suits the buyer better? Been driving my Mirai for a year, refueling experience has been acceptable here in California. Expanding the fueling infrastructure should be easier than finding enough minerals for the battery. Especially with all those restrictions impose recently by the US government on battery production.

 

[Gor134]

Do you mean allroad, or are we finally getting RS/S4 avant for B10 generation in the US?

We're getting the S/RS Avants finally!

 

[dylanfoos]

Anyone have any updates on the next GT3? Sorry to switch up the subject.

 

[Masaki_11]

Considering the buyer, I would think ES goes hybrid-only for next gen before going full BEV.

2025 could coincide with the end of 3IS production, which was rumored to be 2021 - 2024 model years. A new 2025 IS BEV could be a great vehicle for all global markets.

Everyone, including Lexus, forgets about the LS. That would be the best fit for a new BEV sedan as LS was historically the forerunner of Lexus and the brand is headed towards being all electric... but it's hard to understand their priorities with that car, unfortunately.

Thank you so much for sharing your thoughts!

 

[Masaki_11]

Now given that the A100 GR Supra and LFA (LFR) are being developed, it looks like they're going to develop an all new platform dubbed as TNGA-A. It should be better than the TNGA-L platform and I suspect that there is a chance that the new IS could ride on that platform if it's not a full-EV.

Thank you so much for sharing your thoughts!

 

[Masaki_11]

My guess is eTNGA 2.0 for 2025 and future Lexus BEVs. eTNGA needs to transition to cell-to-body by 2025, which requires a redesign to the mid-section.

GA-K like GA-C will be modified to E3 platform that allows PHV/BEV variants to be designed easily, although how that could be done is still beyond me.


There will be no platforms for future sports cars. Every one will have custom chassis optimized for a single purpose with motorsports as priority.

Thank you so much for sharing your thoughts!

 

[Masaki_11]

My prediction is a huge supply chain crisis in the EV market (especially for BEV) in the 2024-2028 timeframe that will result in a significantly more practical BEV adoption schedule (for a very complex web of reasons). It will far dwarf the 2021-2024 chip crisis we are experiencing now.

The original "30 by 30" (30% BEV adoption in 2030) goal by an industry consortium was already ambitious enough, but then some politicians used that to their own advantage and they got in an arms race to propose the most radical BEV plans for votes. I'm thinking "15% by 35" and "50% by 50" as more likely outcomes globally.

I agree, I definitely think the world can certainly adopt more hybrids, both self-charging and plug-ins, but I don't realistically see BEVs taking over after 2025; it's really not that far away, actually.

 

[NXracer]

No? BMW has a next-gen 3er in the works, separate from the electric i3 coming in 2025, Mercedes just launched the W205 and Audi has the B10 generation A5 coming soon on a brand new "PPC" platform, reinvesting with a whole new lineup of updated powertrains. Each big three are also launching their next-gen ICE 5er, E Class, and in two years new A6.

Still think Lexus can 100% make a case for a new gen IS, I mean the current *uncompetitive and outdated* IS is selling okay and has been on sale since 2014, a truly new gen could sell much better I would think

The sleek IS looking replacement model in the EV day might be an HEV/EV replacement, but as a HEV only, would that be able to crack the performance demands of the market? Going EV gives it a performance moniker it hasnt held in recent memory.

 

[bogglo]

I don't see the IS getting discontinued. The RX FSP and 450H+ are very significant cars showing what to expect from Lexus with respect to performance and daily driven cars.

The cool thing right now is TMC have all the engines, hybrid system and technology to compete with any car manufacturer the question is how they plan to do it.

Some of the post above have post legitimate reasons why its going to take a while before Lexus goes full EV
1. Take for instance if the ES goes full EV will it still be affordable to the regular ES buyers (LS makes more sense to go full EV first)
2. Reason people are probably not trippin too bad right now with PHEV is because they really don't need to charge it like the example mentioned about Prime owners.
3. Lastly is the logistics of going full EV as mentioned above supply chain crisis likely.

One smart thing though that TMC is doing in my opinion is Launching Crown globally. I feel like crown is needed to make it easy for Lexus to go full EV without loosing it's customer who are not ready to go full EV yet. So, the success of crown as a global vehicle will also play a role in Lexus ambition of going full EV.


Another question is why are we getting cars like the Corvette ZO6 and Escalade V, new Mustang etc. when everyone is talking about EVs

 

[qtb007]

Side note, I always wondered what the stats are of PHEV owners actually plugging in their vehicles at night are. Most of the limited amount of folks I spoke to who own the new Prime Rav4, have yet to do so since delivery of their new Rav4.

I know several people with PHEVs (Rav4 Prime, Prius Prime, Volt, Pacifica) and they are all pretty fanatical about plugging in to minimize the amount of gas they use.

 

[LS500-18]

I know several people with PHEVs (Rav4 Prime, Prius Prime, Volt, Pacifica) and they are all pretty fanatical about plugging in to minimize the amount of gas they use.

Yeah I had a Prius Plugin for 3 years and a RAV4 Prime now for 1.5 year, I always plug in, that's always the preferred driving because it's smoother, quieter, more efficient, etc. It's a no-brainer.

I suspect the only people not plugging in are those people that either don't pay for their own gas or they got a substantial tax break or other incentive to buy the car.

Abolish all "green" vehicle buying credits, put it into charging infrastructure, free parking, etc. instead of giving tax breaks to the rich. The market would be better off.

 

[Tragic Bronson]

Another question is why are we getting cars like the Corvette ZO6 and Escalade V, new Mustang etc. when everyone is talking about EVs

Same reason as why the Civic Type R exists, and people are crazy (Errr dealers) for the GR Corolla

 

[F1 Silver Arrows]

Another question is why are we getting cars like the Corvette ZO6 and Escalade V, new Mustang etc. when everyone is talking about EVs

Because perhaps not everyone does want EVs and the notion that everyone wants EVs is a lie generated by special interest groups.

 

[Masaki_11]

Because perhaps not everyone does want EVs and the notion that everyone wants EVs is a lie generated by special interest groups.

True, especially when it comes to performance vehicles. As fast as Teslas, and some other EVs are, and whatnot, they aren't really that exciting. The argument can be made for day-to-day EVs, but yeah I personally don't really buy into the hype. What I foresee is manufacturers offering more EV options in their vehicle lineups as time goes by, including Toyota and Lexus. However, I think ICEs and hybrid powertrains will be the bread-and-butter of sales for the near future.

Also, as someone who has lived in both Japan and South Africa, I can't really see EVs taking over anytime soon in both countries--a key factor being the principle fee customers need to spend to go EV, even for a tiny one. In Japan, nowadays, hybrids are really common, though. Maybe EVs will become more popular in cities like Kyoto, Tokyo, and maybe Osaka. And, of course, in the developing world, the EV infrastructure is definitely nowhere near where it has to be, and people will definitely not be willing to spend extra for an EV. Climate change is the last thing on some peoples' minds😂

I don't know about Europe though; that's where most of the climate change and carbon neutrality big-wigs say their piece for the world to hear. Maybe there will be a legislative push that coerces people into buying EVs exclusively, which may happen.

 

[bogglo]

True, especially when it comes to performance vehicles. As fast as Teslas, and some other EVs are, and whatnot, they aren't really that exciting. The argument can be made for day-to-day EVs, but yeah I personally don't really buy into the hype. What I foresee is manufacturers offering more EV options in their vehicle lineups as time goes by, including Toyota and Lexus. However, I think ICEs and hybrid powertrains will be the bread-and-butter of sales for the near future.

Also, as someone who has lived in both Japan and South Africa, I can't really see EVs taking over anytime soon in both countries--a key factor being the principle fee customers need to spend to go EV, even for a tiny one. In Japan, nowadays, hybrids are really common, though. Maybe EVs will become more popular in cities like Kyoto, Tokyo, and maybe Osaka. And, of course, in the developing world, the EV infrastructure is definitely nowhere near where it has to be, and people will definitely not be willing to spend extra for an EV. Climate change is the last thing on some peoples' minds😂

I don't know about Europe though; that's where most of the climate change and carbon neutrality big-wigs say their piece for the world to hear. Maybe there will be a legislative push that coerces people into buying EVs exclusively, which may happen.

I agree Africa is not moving to electric vehicles anytime soon it saddens me to say it but the government out there still has a very long way to go as far as dealing with anything relating to climate change. Also has someone who has lived in Japan and knowing that they keep their not into the leasing new cars and changing cars every year like we do in the US it's going to take a while to go full electric.

 

[CRSKTN]

There is lots of progress towards extremely affordable micro transport solutions offering EV in developing markets

I wouldn't count them out if the numbers make sense, as I have seen elsewhere

 

[NXracer]

I don't see the IS getting discontinued. The RX FSP and 450H+ are very significant cars showing what to expect from Lexus with respect to performance and daily driven cars.

The cool thing right now is TMC have all the engines, hybrid system and technology to compete with any car manufacturer the question is how they plan to do it.

Some of the post above have post legitimate reasons why its going to take a while before Lexus goes full EV
1. Take for instance if the ES goes full EV will it still be affordable to the regular ES buyers (LS makes more sense to go full EV first)
2. Reason people are probably not trippin too bad right now with PHEV is because they really don't need to charge it like the example mentioned about Prime owners.
3. Lastly is the logistics of going full EV as mentioned above supply chain crisis likely.

One smart thing though that TMC is doing in my opinion is Launching Crown globally. I feel like crown is needed to make it easy for Lexus to go full EV without loosing it's customer who are not ready to go full EV yet. So, the success of crown as a global vehicle will also play a role in Lexus ambition of going full EV.


Another question is why are we getting cars like the Corvette ZO6 and Escalade V, new Mustang etc. when everyone is talking about EVs

I believe the answer to the question at the end, is because fear of change causes mass panic buying trends.

If you analyze the platforms that Toyota sells/sold V8s in in the past couple of years, the last model cycle of that generation that offered a v8, had a huge sales boost, excessive public forum talk about if you want the best of this nameplate, the last MY was the one to get, and generally average transaction prices inching higher then normal.

The idea of performance, reliability (at least for TMC), and generally fun has been typically a V8 and above, and with the sea of marketing, official company lines indicating that things are winding down for big motors, politicians signaling that big motors are going to be dumped, for either smaller powertrains or even full on EVs now its the time to get your tulip before supply runs out.

 

[ssun30]

Some interesting info on difference between "FKS" and "FXS" engines other than compression ratio:

1) Intake manifold is redesigned to make space for HV components.

2) FXS engines have considerably higher tumble ratio than FKS engines (~3 vs. ~2).

3) FXS engines have no drive belt system. Water pumps, oil pumps, AC compressors are all electric.

4) FXS engines require twice the spark plug energy (80 mJ vs 40 mJ) due to high tumble ratio.

BTW "Dynamic Force Next-gen" engines with 45-46% thermal efficiency already finished development in 2015. But it was deemed not economically feasible at that time and focus was put into other HV components instead.

P.S. The guy involved in the development of next-gen THS (and has left the company) complained "THS is at risk of losing leader status because the old heads are so stingy". Almost all THS products could gain >15% better acceleration and ~5% highway fuel efficiency today for a very modest cost gain (hint: it's why the Prius Prime has same performance and fuel economy as the regular Prius despite being 160kg heavier).

 

[Will1991]

I understand why TMC choose not to build it for the 4G Prius since it was good enough to beat the competition, but now with so many production headaches for BEV production it would be the perfect timing to improve even more the HSD's fuel consumption...

4th-gen TMC hybrids are well built and fuel efficient (the ES300h and NX450h+ are amazing examples), but given the times, I was expecting some kind of revolution for the 5th-gen systems but it's more like an evolution.

P.S. The guy involved in the development of next-gen THS (and has left the company) complained "THS is at risk of losing leader status because the old heads are so stingy". Almost all THS products could gain >15% better acceleration and ~5% highway fuel efficiency today for a very modest cost gain (hint: it's why the Prius Prime has same performance and fuel economy as the regular Prius despite being 160kg heavier).

We're seeing this with the 5th-gen hybrids, the 1.8L HSD improved 0-60 by 1.7 seconds with little more than a new HV battery and a new electric motor...

Toyota announces the new 2023 Corolla

Toyota strengthens style, technology, performance and driving appeal across the Corolla range for 2023Refreshed design with new exterior features and colours and harmonised new interior trims, upholsteries and finishesNew fifth generation Toyota hybrid electric technology, delivering more power...

newsroom.toyota.eu

But are you referring to the 1-way clutch?

PS: It remains a extremely strange and awkward decision to keep the UX (the premium product on GA-C) with the 4th-gen system and the lower cost product jumped into the 5th-gen... IMO, it should've been a Lexus first, even if it was for only a couple of months.
The way I see it, the Luxury arm should be in front of the "normal" brand....