Lexus Files Trademark for UX 300e in Europe

[spwolf]

The numbers are added onto existing capacities, so the 2.0L Izoa/C-HR won't disappear overnight when the PHV gets introduced.

Makes sense for them to skip the regular hybrid because PHEVs count towards Double Credit while hybrids don't.

yeah, i wonder how realistic those numbers are though. If they are, then phev would be priced around regular hybrid price... what are the incentives for such phevs in china right n0w?

 

[ssun30]

October this year(2019.10), and engine code is m20c(produce by gac engine like 6ar)

Great to know. Source?

 

[shizhi]

Great to know. Source?

 

[ssun30]

yeah, i wonder how realistic those numbers are though. If they are, then phev would be priced around regular hybrid price... what are the incentives for such phevs in china right n0w?

It was ￥30k last year. Under the full Double Credit system for 2019 it will get dropped to up to 16k or 21k depending on the regional incentive program.

BTW the incentive for FCV is a whopping 200k. So we could even see a Mirai sold at Camry's price (that is, if they do want to import Mirai to China which is unlikely).

 

[spwolf]

It was ￥30k last year. Under the full Double Credit system for 2019 it will get dropped to up to 16k or 21k depending on the regional incentive program.

BTW the incentive for FCV is a whopping 200k. So we could even see a Mirai sold at Camry's price (that is, if they do want to import Mirai to China which is unlikely).

So $2.5k to $3k... might be enough for them to offset major difference in cost between their hev and phev?

 

[Will1991]

I really hope this is a turning point for Toyota, looking forward with increased investment for PHEV's and hopefully BEV's for 2020 debut.

Thanks a lot for your share, it has give me a lot of enthusiasm.

 

[ssun30]

So $2.5k to $3k... might be enough for them to offset major difference in cost between their hev and phev?

No, the Corolla PHEV will be launched at a much higher price, incentives included, than the HEV, which led the media to question its value. But clearly it is aimed towards Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen where people need to pay over ¥100k just to get a license plate on an ICEV/HEV so it still has inherent value. Just from price alone it is not competitive at all.

 

[Will1991]

No, the Corolla PHEV will be launched at a much higher price, incentives included, than the HEV, which led the media to question its value. But clearly it is aimed towards Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen where people need to pay over ¥100k just to get a license plate on an ICEV/HEV so it still has inherent value. Just from price alone it is not competitive at all.

Is there any information or rumor regarding a PHEV for the new Corolla or there will be only Corolla PHEV from the last generation?

 

[TheNerdyPotato]

But clearly it is aimed towards Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen where people need to pay over ¥100k just to get a license plate on an ICEV/HEV so it still has inherent value.

Wow. That's nuts. That's about $15k US just for the license plates/registration? I had no idea it was so expensive over there. I assume there's annual renewal, too. Here, in the US, it's less than a thousand for a new vehicle in most places (I think).

 

[ssun30]

So I just read the environment assessment report posted by FAW Toyota and here's a better summary of the project:
>>To begin with, FAW-Toyota has three plants in Tianjin, these are legacy plants producing pre-TNGA vehicles.
>>The new plant is called 'New First Line', note this is not an expansion/modification of the existing Plant 1. The 'New First Line' indicates that it is the 'first TNGA plant' to distinguish it from legacy TPS plants.
>>New First Line has a current capacity of 100k/year, split between Vehicle 280B (Izoa 2.0L) and 480B (Avalon 2.5L/HV).
>>The expansion adds an extra 120k/year capacity, split among 66k Izoa PHEVs, 10k Izoa BEVs, and 44k Avalon PHEVs. The expansion will add 1500 jobs.
>>According to the document, the existing 100k/year capacity will reshift to 16k 280B and 84k 480B. This could mean either of the two possibilities: 1) they are shifting the Izoa to an electric-heavy lineup 2) they will shift gasoline Izoa production to another plant. If option 1 was taken, this would mean they are only expecting 92k Izoa sales per year, which is short of their 'at least 100k' target. This is why I'm leaning towards option 2. Remember this document was formulated when FAW did not expect the demand for the Izoa 2.0L to be so strong. 8k/month was the long term goal with a full lineup but the 2.0L is already selling at 75% that target just four months after launch. Also I think 128k Avalons per year is too ambitious of a target, but we shall see.
>>According to latest bidding requests from FAW-Toyota, the mysterious 710B program was revealed to be the Izoa BEV. The 710A program was the Reiz/Mark X facelift, which only lasted two model years before getting cancelled. It was first speculated that the 710B is the new Mark X, but after reveal of the 480B Avalon program speculations changed to it being the Vios facelift since the IFBs occured at the same time as the IFBs for the TNGA 1.5L engine. Toyota's smoke and mirrors strategy at its best.
>>Lately it has been confirmed that TMC has picked Panasonic as its primary battery supplier for all of their electrified vehicles launching in 2020. So rumors of collaboration with a local supplier such as CATL is out of the question at least in the short term. The good news is, of course, the UX EV may have the latest and greatest from Panasonic.

 

[ssun30]

Is there any information or rumor regarding a PHEV for the new Corolla or there will be only Corolla PHEV from the last generation?

There's no info on the TNGA Corolla PHEV. But supposedly TNGA-C should be flexible enough to add PHEV model during the mid-cycle refresh. The current E170 Corolla PHEV has always been a technology demonstration platform by TMEC to prove they could develop HV technologies independently from Japan.

Wow. That's nuts. That's about $15k US just for the license plates/registration? I had no idea it was so expensive over there. I assume there's annual renewal, too. Here, in the US, it's less than a thousand for a new vehicle in most places (I think).

No there's no annual renewal for the license plate. You buy once you keep it for life and could be passed on in the family, which is why it is considered a long term investment here. They only inspect the license plate once a year to make sure it's not stained or damaged to the point speed cameras can't read them. There are people who make a living by selling unused license plates on the black market. I, for example, got one from the black market for a moderate fee, easily worth it considering the time it saves me.

 

[spwolf]

Remember this document was formulated when FAW did not expect the demand for the Izoa 2.0L to be so strong. 8k/month was the long term goal with a full lineup but the 2.0L is already selling at 75% that target just four months after launch.

if they did not expect it, then they would not be able to produce enough vehicles .

 

[spwolf]

No, the Corolla PHEV will be launched at a much higher price, incentives included, than the HEV, which led the media to question its value. But clearly it is aimed towards Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen where people need to pay over ¥100k just to get a license plate on an ICEV/HEV so it still has inherent value. Just from price alone it is not competitive at all.

then not having CHR hybrid makes no sense... i very much doubt it is to open up market for UX, they just dont work that way.

 

[ssun30]

if they did not expect it, then they would not be able to produce enough vehicles .

It's from their own mouth that they expected the demand to be 4k/month instead of 6k now. Of course the plant was overprovisioned for long term demand. I have no interest playing word games with you once again.

then not having CHR hybrid makes no sense... i very much doubt it is to open up market for UX, they just dont work that way.

I too believe that means a separate plant for non-PHEV C-HRs, which could include an unconfirmed HEV version. I just can't see it being a simple PHEV/2.0L lineup, it's giving up too much addressable market.

 

[spwolf]

It's from their own mouth that they expected the demand to be 4k/month instead of 6k now. Of course the plant was overprovisioned for long term demand. I have no interest playing word games with you once again.

Toyota does not over-provision plants... Google TPS, JIT.

It is just PR... just like their new sales in Japan when they announce 8x-12x larger demand than anticipated which then gets fulfilled in 2-3 months.
When they truly under-estimate demand, you get real 9 month waiting lists, which did happen, just not often and not recently and usually it is problem with regional distributor ordering less vehicles than needed and not Toyota plant.

We had that case with 2006 Rav4 launch, Toyota distribution company (owned by Toyota Tsusho) simply ordered too little for the demand, and it got filled next year because plant is not able to scale up that fast... you can also see this with NX in the USA when they ordered lower numbers first year and then were not able to get more until next year.

I assumed it happened for C-HR in Europe as well, but as I dont work with/for/around Toyota anymore, I have no real numbers.

 

[krew]

I'm honestly torn on whether the 300e denotes a plug-in hybrid a la Toyota Prius Prime or a full battery electric vehicle. Lexus' games with "arbitrary equivalency" numbers (as opposed to those that indicate actual engine displacement) started with their hybrid models (450h=3.5-liter hybrid, for example) and then moved to their turbocharged gasoline engines (300=2-liter turbo or 500=3.5-liter turbo), so a further move to PHEV or BEV powertrains is hardly surprising.

Autoblog's commentary piece on the AutoGuide report notes that the UX 300e trademark was linked to Lexus and filed in Norway. That fact probably skews the speculation towards a battery electric vehicle.

Also worth noting is that, as of this writing, Toyota has yet to file a UX 300e trademark in the United States, confirming Chunichi Shimbun's contention that this model is not a high priority for North America.

This is a major blow to my PHEV theory, though it's worth noting this passage:

The International Energy Agency (IEA), using a slightly different yardstick for electric vehicles that includes hybrids that can be plugged in, showed Norway’s share of such cars at 39 percent in 2017, far ahead of second-placed Iceland on 12 percent and Sweden on six percent.

So, it's not like PHEV vehicles are unpopular in Norway.