8th Generation Lexus ES Megathread (ES 350h, ES 500h, ??)

Sulu

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Is the ES uncompetitive in the segment? The sales in 2022 were 80% of the sales of the redesign that launched for MY19. I'd expect that the 20% drop is due to midsize luxury cars being a dead/dying segment. People are either buying electric or moving to crossovers. Drop the 2GR for an A25 PHEV and the ES will now be in the hunt as an electric option.
No, it is not.
Subjectively speaking it is the slowest and least dynamic in its segment, on top of that it's also using parts that are shared across Toyota sibilings, eg. Strut suspension, all steel chassis, no torque vectoring, buzzy 4 cyl engine, aging tech......I can go on and on a list of things that can be improved upon. Toyota / Lexus is so used to recyling old parts they think they can always get away with it. Really hoping they bring something fresh to the table next gen.
The ES is, more than any other Lexus model, the one enthusiasts love to hate because it wears its soft, non-enthusiast ride on its sleeve. Yet, it is more than competitive in the mid-size luxury sedan segment, outselling the German mid-size sedans (Audi A6, BMW 5-Series, MB E-Class).
Lexus ES sales.png
(Data courtesy of https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/, Mercedes-Benz E-Class sales figures only available to 2016.)

Enthusiasts often use the sharing of parts and powertrains between the ES and the mass-market Camry to argue that the ES is a bad car. That is not good argument, in my opinion.

More and more automakers these days share parts, to lower the cost of development of new models. Lexus and Toyota are no different. Audi, part of the huge VW Group, is very well-known for sharing parts with other VW Group brands, including the cheaper brands.

And, yes, the Toyota A25A 4-cylinder is a buzzy engine but (and I don't have sales breakdown by powertrain) I would guess that the 4-cylinder AWD ES sells in very small numbers, less than the A25A Hybrid ES and much less than the 2GR V6 model. Anecdotally, I have yet to see any ES 250 AWD on the streets.

The sharing of parts and powertrains is not a problem; the problem is if the sharing is not well hidden, and having driven both the ES and the Camry, I would say that parts sharing is well-disguised in the ES, with its different suspension tuning and extra sound and vibration insulation. That is what has made it so successful in the luxury mid-size sedan market.
 

Sulu

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What’s the chances of the next ES to be based on the Toyota Crown sedan.
Depends how you define "Toyota Crown sedan". If you define it to be the RWD sedan, no, the ES will not be based on that. If, however, you define it to the the lifted, FWD crossover sedan that is already on sale in North America, the ES will be based on that (but probably not lifted that high).