"When you've been making money lying down for too long, you forget how to make money standing up".
The demise of the F line actually coincided with a "Second Renaissance" of Lexus, despite what enthusiasts would call a "Lost Decade". The 2010s was a period where Lexus transitioned from going toe to toe with European brands, to avoiding direct competition and increasing volume and profit in the easiest way possible. The 2016-2020 "Alphard Bubble" in the Chinese market was what made Lexus realize this strategy. Toyota found a completely empty market segment and established a near monopoly and was able to charge exorbitant prices, and later doubled down with the LM that could be argued to be the single most profitable automotive product in history (with a per-unit margin of well over 200%). The ES grew from mid-size to full-size because that's easy to do on a transverse FWD platform, with even more space than the flagship LS - this allowed them to easily undercut the 5-series/E-class and establish the ES as one of the best selling luxury sedan globally. If you just look at the figures, Lexus has never been this strong.
But as the saying goes "what goes up must come down". This lazy competition strategy ended up costing Lexus in the early 2020s when they found out they have no competitive product in China anymore, and have to engage in a very costly price war just to maintain their presence in one market. And the market size is large enough for them to not just abandon it (like Acura and Infiniti did), so they have to commit even more. Now they are basically betting everything will be alright once their Shanghai factory was built, and go back to their pre-COVID sales figures by selling 5-year-obsolete BEVs, good luck with that.
Lexus was lucky that their competitors also made mistakes, much bigger mistakes. Most European brands went all-in on full BEV plans and we all know how well that worked out. They invested almost no R&D to full hybrids and wasted all their effort on ineffective mild hybrids. Mercedes reacted very slowly to the LM despite decades of V-class VIP conversion market in many parts of the world. But among them, BMW stood out because they stuck to their core brand identity despite their questionable design language. The death of the F brand exposed the biggest real weakness of Lexus as a brand: they don't really know what kind of brand they want to be, instead just going for whatever market segment that makes the most money.
What I think could salvage the F brand name is going for the BOF market similar to how TRD transformed. The G63 AMG is probably the best-selling "full AMG" (not counting "AMG-lite" models like C43) model because it caters to some very rich clients with a specific taste for BOF products. Till this day Lexus still refuses to compete against the G-wagen and RR which I think is a big missed opportunity. The GX and LX are more popular than ever, so instead of an easily forgettable generic name like "Overtrail", why not expand the two to a F lineup like the TRD lineup? I'm almost certain a LX with the 4.0TT V8 will easily sell 10 times the volume of the GR GT without requiring expensive R&D.
The demise of the F line actually coincided with a "Second Renaissance" of Lexus, despite what enthusiasts would call a "Lost Decade". The 2010s was a period where Lexus transitioned from going toe to toe with European brands, to avoiding direct competition and increasing volume and profit in the easiest way possible. The 2016-2020 "Alphard Bubble" in the Chinese market was what made Lexus realize this strategy. Toyota found a completely empty market segment and established a near monopoly and was able to charge exorbitant prices, and later doubled down with the LM that could be argued to be the single most profitable automotive product in history (with a per-unit margin of well over 200%). The ES grew from mid-size to full-size because that's easy to do on a transverse FWD platform, with even more space than the flagship LS - this allowed them to easily undercut the 5-series/E-class and establish the ES as one of the best selling luxury sedan globally. If you just look at the figures, Lexus has never been this strong.
But as the saying goes "what goes up must come down". This lazy competition strategy ended up costing Lexus in the early 2020s when they found out they have no competitive product in China anymore, and have to engage in a very costly price war just to maintain their presence in one market. And the market size is large enough for them to not just abandon it (like Acura and Infiniti did), so they have to commit even more. Now they are basically betting everything will be alright once their Shanghai factory was built, and go back to their pre-COVID sales figures by selling 5-year-obsolete BEVs, good luck with that.
Lexus was lucky that their competitors also made mistakes, much bigger mistakes. Most European brands went all-in on full BEV plans and we all know how well that worked out. They invested almost no R&D to full hybrids and wasted all their effort on ineffective mild hybrids. Mercedes reacted very slowly to the LM despite decades of V-class VIP conversion market in many parts of the world. But among them, BMW stood out because they stuck to their core brand identity despite their questionable design language. The death of the F brand exposed the biggest real weakness of Lexus as a brand: they don't really know what kind of brand they want to be, instead just going for whatever market segment that makes the most money.
What I think could salvage the F brand name is going for the BOF market similar to how TRD transformed. The G63 AMG is probably the best-selling "full AMG" (not counting "AMG-lite" models like C43) model because it caters to some very rich clients with a specific taste for BOF products. Till this day Lexus still refuses to compete against the G-wagen and RR which I think is a big missed opportunity. The GX and LX are more popular than ever, so instead of an easily forgettable generic name like "Overtrail", why not expand the two to a F lineup like the TRD lineup? I'm almost certain a LX with the 4.0TT V8 will easily sell 10 times the volume of the GR GT without requiring expensive R&D.


